Lloyd's 360 Report Examines Potential Effects of 'Rapid Climate Change'
International News • April 6, 2007
Lloyd's third "360 report" does for the insurance industry what the IPCC report, see previous article, does for the whole world. It focuses attention on global warming/climate change in a way that ...
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Subject: Rapid climate change and positive feedbacks
Posted On: April 9, 2007, 1:20 am CDT
Posted By: Brad Arnold
Comment:
The IPCC, due to scientific reticence, doesn't use postitive feedbacks, nor rapid climate change, in it's climate models.
A example of a positive feedback is Siberia, the land mass of Germany and France combined, and melting permafrost. The methane hydrate melting has caused the methane level to rise 30 times above normal, and the temperature to rise 3C. As some melts, it warms some, causing more to melt, and warm more, in a vicious circle. As goes Siberia, so will go the cryosphere (i.e. 20% of land is permafrost).
Evidence of rapid climate changes are found in ice core samples. Generally, complex systems (like our climate) resist forcing, then suddenly shift to another stable state. We are now in the Holocene, a climate sweet spot. In the next couple of decades, as the climate warms, the Jet Streams will go poleward, and eco-systems will collapse, leading to a hotter dryer climate that has been responsible for mass extinctions many times in the past.
Climate change is not linear, but scientific reticence treats it linear because non-linear climate change is unpredictable. Remember the Fallacy of the Law of Averages: it is a mistake to expect the most probable outcome to be the average one.
Subject: Rapid climate change and positive feedbacks
A example of a positive feedback is Siberia, the land mass of Germany and France combined, and melting permafrost. The methane hydrate melting has caused the methane level to rise 30 times above normal, and the temperature to rise 3C. As some melts, it warms some, causing more to melt, and warm more, in a vicious circle. As goes Siberia, so will go the cryosphere (i.e. 20% of land is permafrost).
Evidence of rapid climate changes are found in ice core samples. Generally, complex systems (like our climate) resist forcing, then suddenly shift to another stable state. We are now in the Holocene, a climate sweet spot. In the next couple of decades, as the climate warms, the Jet Streams will go poleward, and eco-systems will collapse, leading to a hotter dryer climate that has been responsible for mass extinctions many times in the past.
Climate change is not linear, but scientific reticence treats it linear because non-linear climate change is unpredictable. Remember the Fallacy of the Law of Averages: it is a mistake to expect the most probable outcome to be the average one.