Posted On: August 17, 2006, 4:27 am CDT

Posted By: Victor

I beg 2 differ on this. Its widely accepted dat the markets have a very weak memory n more often than not it pertains 2 the financial markets. But this time it seems the memory ain't going 2 b that weak. I think the re/ins. market has learned some very good lessons from two consecutively devastating hurricane seasons n the players r much better prepared 2 face the challenge now. Industry wide capacity rationalization is going 2 come n has rather started via various mergers/acqu, so thus surplus problem ain't going 2 last long. Focus is more than ever on stringent underwriting guidelines and v r seeing lotta areas getting lesser n lesser coverages. Although the rates may have remained flat in the 2nd quarter, it wud b safe 2 assume dat they r going 2 b pretty much stable which wud definitely aid d players manage d cycle more effectively. Agreed dat the 2nd quarter GDP growth nos. aren't too encouraging and ins. rates have remained flat, but 3rd n 4th quarters r definitely expected to show better results. Energy rates r up by about 20-30%, CAT prices have flown thru the roof - up by almost 100% in certain coastal areas. Lastly, certain lines of liability which r showing rates decline already have a lot of capacity which do not look sustainable n hence eventually rates shall stabilize if not go up. Pls. lemme know if u feel i m ovelooking nething.