Coastal Growth, Not Global Warming, Blamed for Rising Storm Losses
National News • February 25, 2008
A hurricane that hit Miami in 1926 would cause up to $157 billion in damage if it were to strike today, according to a recent study.
U.S. storm costs are rising because of higher populations and ...
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Subject: Multi-Decadal Irregular Hurricane Cycle
Posted On: February 25, 2008, 9:41 am CST
Posted By: Bill Rempel
Comment:
It's really funny to consider the implications of the irregular multi-decadal Atlantic hurricane cycle on coastal building patterns.
During the later period of light years for Atlantic hurricanes, building accelerates on the coast, real estate values rise disproportionately, and there aren't any problems for insurers in those areas – or much need for fiscal discipline from "insurers of last resort."
Then the storms pick up for a decade or two. Companies get railroaded into staying in states like FL, the market hardens, when statutes sundown, suddenly the companies leave, building slows, real estate values tend to slow their increase ... probably just in time for the light period to start again.
When the light period has proven itself, the big boys will want to get some of that profitable exposure again, come into the coastal markets with advertising and big appetites, and enjoy – maybe – a few years or a decade before the cycle picks up again. People, who have notoriously short memories, start once again relocating to the coastal paradises (well, compared to the cold and tax/theft-high northern states) of the southeast.
Rinse, repeat.
The real money is probably to be made going against the crowd, but who has the testicular fortitude to do that?
Subject: Multi-Decadal Irregular Hurricane Cycle
During the later period of light years for Atlantic hurricanes, building accelerates on the coast, real estate values rise disproportionately, and there aren't any problems for insurers in those areas – or much need for fiscal discipline from "insurers of last resort."
Then the storms pick up for a decade or two. Companies get railroaded into staying in states like FL, the market hardens, when statutes sundown, suddenly the companies leave, building slows, real estate values tend to slow their increase ... probably just in time for the light period to start again.
When the light period has proven itself, the big boys will want to get some of that profitable exposure again, come into the coastal markets with advertising and big appetites, and enjoy – maybe – a few years or a decade before the cycle picks up again. People, who have notoriously short memories, start once again relocating to the coastal paradises (well, compared to the cold and tax/theft-high northern states) of the southeast.
Rinse, repeat.
The real money is probably to be made going against the crowd, but who has the testicular fortitude to do that?