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Expect Above Average Atlantic Hurricane Season, Say Forecasters
National News • May 27, 2008
The nation's annual forecast about how many hurricanes the Atlantic Ocean will churn up is now more like the daily weather report.
Forecasters added probabilities to their 2008 report. It's the ...
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| Subject | Posted By | Posted On |
|---|---|---|
| IT's ON! | wudchuck | Jun 2, 2008, 10:51 am |
| RE: RE: Useless Information | mx | Jun 2, 2008, 10:36 am |
| RE: RE: No more ice for hurricane victims, says FEMA! ?? | Gill Fin | May 28, 2008, 2:27 pm |
| RE: No more ice for hurricane victims, says FEMA! ?? | LSG | May 28, 2008, 1:48 pm |
| RE: Useless Information | Walter | May 28, 2008, 12:46 pm |
| RE: No more ice for hurricane victims, says FEMA! ?? | wudchuck | May 27, 2008, 5:48 pm |
| No more ice for hurricane victims, says FEMA! ?? | . | May 27, 2008, 5:37 pm |
| Useless Information | Dread | May 27, 2008, 1:28 pm |
| # of Hurricanes! | Mongoose | May 27, 2008, 1:14 pm |
| RE: # of Hurricanes! | Ratemaker | May 27, 2008, 11:53 am |
| # of Hurricanes! | wudchuck | May 27, 2008, 8:40 am |
| Back to article | ||
Subject: RE: Useless Information
Seriously, I think that the numbers really are SWAG to the degree that its similar to EQ probabilities-a little more than hunches even when they reforecast the estimate halfway through the season. Face it, the weather is predictable in the big picture sense-the Law of Large Numbers kicks in and works pretty well but its REALLY hard to predict with any kind of actuarial credibility the number of weather events in a specific geographic area in a specified time frame. I mean,we can predict the number of fires in the US very accurately, but not for say Miami Florida in the month of June for instance.