Max Mayfield gives wind conference ‘bad news’

There is no reason to think there will be any change in hurricane patterns in the near future; the number of hurricanes have been increasing since 1995 and there is no doubt that they will continue to do so for the next decade or two, according to Max Mayfield, director of the National Hurricane Center in Miami.

Mayfield admitted he was the bearer of “bad news” as he cautioned more than 1,000 insurance adjusters, mediators and attorneys attending the Feb. 8 to 11 Seventh Annual Windstorm Insurance Conference in Orlando to prepare for what very likely will be a 2006 repeat performance of 2004 and 2005. Mayfield even suggested that due to the La Nina effect, there could be more hurricanes in 2006 than there were in 2005.

“Homeowners in areas where previous hurricanes have damaged their property need to complete minor re-pairs before the next hurricane season,” Mayfield explained. “What seem like small items, a loose shingle for instance, will be weaknesses if another hurricane comes through, and could result in major damage if not repaired now.”

Everyone in coastal areas, and even homeowners living away from the coast need to prepare now for the 2006 hurricane season, Mayfield said.

The conference was so popular that a second conference room, to which the presentations were broadcast on closed-circuit television, had to be set up to accommodate attendees who could not fit into the main area.

“Hurricanes are not just coastal events,” Mayfield said, “when a hurricane moves onto land with it come heavy rain and tornadoes that can devastate inland areas far inland from the center of the hurricane.

He showed maps indicating the paths of 2005’s major hurricanes and proved his point by showing that one person was killed in a Hurricane Katrina-spawned tornado, in Georgia, hundreds of miles from the eye of the hurricane.

Evacuations essential
Another weakness Mayfield observed during the 2005 hurricane season was the unwillingness of homeowners to evacuate areas in which the cone-of-probability showed hurricanes could strike.

“Only 10 percent of residents in the Keys, for example, evacuated,” Mayfield said. “That isn’t good enough. If a major hurricane had moved in there would have been major problems.

“If it looks like there is going to be a tidal surge, you have to flee the water, Mayfield explained. “If there is a large storm surge, it doesn’t matter how well a house is built, or what it is build from, the flooding is going to enter the house and no matter how tall you are, it won’t help.”

Hurricanes are unpredictable
While hurricane tracking procedures have become more accurate, Mayfield emphasized that even the most experienced hurricane trackers at the center expect hurricanes to do erratic things and their paths are unpredictable.

He showed graphs showing that during the past 12 years, Hurricane Center predictions have improved by 50 percent.

Mayfield said he fears that one day we will expect a category one hurricane and wake up to a Katrina. He pointed out that while Katrina was in the Gulf of Mexico, it went within 24 hours from a category one hurricane to a category five.

“Luckily, before it hit New Orleans and Mississippi, it lost strength,” he said.

Mayfield pointed out that New Orleans was to the west of where Katrina made landfall, which is supposed to be on the weak side of the hurricane. He said the strongest winds hit Mississippi. Katrina reached category five velocity before going ashore, but Mayfield said New Orleans felt category three winds from the storm.

He showed photos of damage done by Katrina in New Orleans and Mississippi, cautioning everyone, “if you decide to ride out a hurricane at home, make sure you buy a hatchet and an ax to take up into the attic with you so that if the water rises into the attic you can cut your way out through the roof.” He said many Hurricane Katrina deaths were due to people who were trapped inside their attics with no way to escape.

Topics Catastrophe Mississippi Hurricane Training Development