Forecasters predict active hurricane season to come in 2007

February 11, 2007

A return to high hurricane activity in 2007 is likely following the below-average 2006 hurricane season, according to the consortium of experts on insurance, risk management and seasonal climate forecasting led by the Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre at University College London.

The Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) consortium, long-range forecast anticipates Atlantic basin and U.S. landfalling hurricane activity will be 60 percent above the 1950-2006 norm next season. According to TSR, whose long-range outlooks for the exceptionally active 2004 and 2005 hurricane seasons and active 2003 hurricane season proved accurate, it is 76 percent likely that U.S. landfalling hurricane activity in 2007 will be in the top one-third of years historically.

TSR predicted there will be a 79 percent probability of an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season, a 15 percent probability of a near-normal season and only a 6 percent chance of a below-normal season. The consortium also predicted there will be 16 tropical storms for the Atlantic basin as a whole, with nine of these being hurricanes and four intense hurricanes.

For the United States specifically, TSR predicted a 76 percent probability of above-normal landfalling hurricane activity, a 15 percent likelihood of a near-normal season and only a 9 percent chance of a below-normal season. Additional, the consortium says five tropical storm are likely to strike the U.S., of which two will be hurricanes.

TSR predicts that two tropical storm will strike on the Caribbean Lesser Antilles, of which one will be a hurricane.

Topics Catastrophe Natural Disasters USA Hurricane

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