Although a deal has been signed to end the crisis in Ukraine after a night of tense talks between President Yanukovych, European ministers and members of the opposition movement, it might not be enough to end the violence in the country.
Tim Holt, head of intelligence at Alert:24, part of Willis’s Special Contingency Risks (SCR), writes that “elements of the opposition movement have claimed they were not consulted ahead of the truce suggesting it may fail.”
In its latest intelligence report, SCR provides the following assessment of the situation:
— The situation at present does not warrant a general evacuation, however, this could change and companies should be ready and prepared to move. Although not a specific target, foreign nationals may get caught up in collateral violence.
— Key flashpoint areas remain Independence Square, City Hall, some high-profile government buildings and the streets in their vicinity. Tensions will remain high in the environs of Independence Square with further escalations and fatalities possible in the coming days.
— The situation is unpredictable and renewed violence could be prompted by further eviction attempts, government provocations or the actions of more fundamentalist parts of the protest movement.
— At present, it is unlikely that the violence will spread beyond Kiev and its existing hotspots in the city centre. The security services have established a series of checkpoints in an attempt to limit the number of activists entering the city and other regional centres.
— Businesses should ensure that there are several means of viable communication with employees living and travelling in Ukraine. On top of this, they should rehearse their evacuation plan and ensure that assembly areas and embarkation points are clarified.
Source: Willis’ Special Contingency Risks (SCR)