Hurricane Forecaster Delays 2012 Prediction Until Spring

Hurricane forecaster William Gray will wait until spring to predict how many storms will form in the Atlantic.

Gray and his research partner at Colorado State University, Philip Klotzbach, usually start making predictions in December but this month, for the first time in 20 years, they’re holding off on forecasting the number of named storms, including hurricanes.

Klotzbach says they’ve tried various models but none have been successful in estimating the number of storms that early. He acknowledges that, currently, predicting hurricanes that far out is “just about as good as making a guess.”

CSU will still issue a discussion of possible hurricane activity each December but the first estimate of the number of storms won’t come until April.

Latest Comments

• December 20, 2011 at 5:35 pm

  Scott says:

  The posters here have said it well. I have always found the CSU forecasters to be as accurate as any weatherman. Only profession I know where you can be wrong more than 50% of... read more
• December 20, 2011 at 2:13 pm

  Wayne says:

  Yes, they have. He is ALWAYS right on target; although they do update the forecast from time to time to match what is acturally happening. And it was not all that long ago, th... read more
• December 20, 2011 at 1:51 pm

  Don Hester says:

  It took twenty years for this "scholar" to admit that his predictions are guesswork. In the meantime how many thousand insureds lost coverage and were non renewed because the ... read more