Property/casualty insurance industry results should be relatively strong from 2004 through 2007, according to a new study by Conning Research and Consulting Inc.
“Our latest projections indicate a slightly better 2004 for the property-casualty industry than had been anticipated,” said Clint Harris, analyst at Conning Research & Consulting Inc. “While we expect property-casualty industry performance to degrade somewhat over the following three years, it will still be strong by historical standards.”
The Conning Research report, “Property-Casualty Forecast & Analysis by Line of Insurance-Second Quarter 2005,” provides projections of key underwriting and financial results for the entire property-casualty industry as well as the major lines of business, including personal auto, homeowners/farmowners, commercial auto, workers’ compensation, commercial multiperil, general liability, non-proportional reinsurance, medical malpractice, fire & allied, and inland marine.
According to Stephan Christiansen, director of research at Conning Research & Consulting Inc., a strong economy and its investments in technology should help the industry in the years ahead. “In the next three years we expect lower premium growth as competition heats up, though moderately strong economic growth and the growing impact of information technology, in the form of underwriting models in personal lines and small commercial business, should temper the effect of competitive pricing,” he said.
“On the other hand, economic growth will also create some upward pressure on loss costs due to line-specific inflation. Finally, we do not anticipate significant additions to loss reserves at the industry level, other than for asbestos,” Christiansen added.
Conning, based in Hartford, Conn., provides analytical insurance industry research and publications as well as consulting services to the financial services industry. For more information, visit http://www.conningresearch.com .
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