Best Revises Liberty Mutual Group Outlook to Negative; Affirms Ratings

April 10, 2009

  • April 10, 2009 at 9:33 am
    Liberty Sucks ..... says:
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    Good lord have you ever heard of spell check?! What the hell are you talking about? You have ADD, ataxia and diarrhea of the mouth all at once.

    Liberty is a bunch of arrogant a-holes. Go down baby…. swim the fishes and AIG too….

  • April 10, 2009 at 10:55 am
    The Oracle says:
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    Go down baby..and swim with fishes…?

    You’re right. There are two spelling errors so I accept your outrage for that…but clearly you are under the influence of somthing. I offered an insider’s look and you shill me to be an illiterate mis-spelled fool?…OK…fine…I am. I’m pond scum…I’m ofall fodder (look it up)…I’m dark and confused and did you say “ADD?” sweet Jesus I wish (hope) that were true….

    In October I wrote in this medium all the things that would occur in AIG and call-out Greenburg’s departure to Bermuda to hook-up with Kelly and other Lexington AIG types and nearly 100 respondants told IJ (this medium) I was insightful.

    But..a guy like you can make no point pointing-out the basedless thoughtful world is without a point.

    Thnaks Biff…or should we spell that a”Biph”?
    (By-the-by Biph…I would have corrected my spelling but SPPPELLL CHECK DON”T WERK SO GUDE ON THISS HER’ THINGAMAJIG!”

    Did you even consider what I wrote you impish, uninformed, mid-teier surrogate? I hope you buy, buy, buy BIPH! I totally full of mis-spelled pooh!

    Good bye America!

    Guys like Biph make this antennable medium.

  • April 10, 2009 at 11:08 am
    hard market? says:
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    I, too, know who the Oracle is and I can say that we are truely challenged and informed by his contribuions. The knothead who rails seems to be under the influence of something. The “Oracle” has sat in a room with our past and current Treasury Secretay and may know more than any person to frequent this site. I know him and he is not an ADD sufferer. He is considered a reluctant brilliant mind and I hope he continues to frequent this site.

  • April 10, 2009 at 11:28 am
    A.D.D? says:
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    If I might…

    For the first time in a long time an obvious learned professional offered salient comments relating Aetna and CNA’s Prudential-like capital plays to today’s challenges and some snot-nosed jilted pissant can’t follow a downhill logic trail profered by a person who obviously knows more than most of us. Screw this site and guys/gals like “that guy”. I’m facilated by intelligence and sadddend by dolts like mister-twister who missed a well-spelled lesson. By-the-by bed-wetter…there’s no spell-check on this site…

    Guilty of caring?

    Go suck your thumb “Liberty Sucks” guy…

  • April 10, 2009 at 11:43 am
    The Oracle says:
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    Go suck your thumb?…
    funny!

    I’ve jumped-in from time to time and never read a missive like “that dude” so it/he/she is an aberation. I think most folks are just good decent people and they are the ones who say nice things when I contribute.

    I have an article comming-out in the WSJ next week on the subject of Federal oversite of heretofore state’s commissioner’s oversite….maybe I can get the bed-wetter to sober-up enough to write somthing I can quote or use?

    Maybe not….

    At least if he/she/it does…I promise to spell his hyphenated mono-slovoic drivel correctly…in the most read financial newspaper in the world….I’m just saying…

    I have, and offical do no raffirm my oath…to never…ever write, type or scroll a remark on this insepid site. “And to all a good night”.
    D.

  • April 10, 2009 at 11:56 am
    Liberty Critic says:
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    These guys are in trouble. They have reduced pricing by more than 50% over the past 3 years with increasing claims and a huge recent dropoff in underwriting experience. Look out below!!!!

  • April 10, 2009 at 12:34 pm
    Ric says:
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    Could the downward spiral be close behind?

  • April 10, 2009 at 12:34 pm
    Mark M says:
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    Let’s see – 25% of book is WC

    The are at / over 100%

    Payrolls down – Rp’s from aduits up -investment income down-

    Deep deep doo doo ahead!

  • April 10, 2009 at 12:42 pm
    Lacitizen says:
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    This can’t be a surprise given the way they operate, contra to the market. I forsee major disruption ahead for a lot of us agents.

  • April 10, 2009 at 1:27 am
    MicMac says:
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    I don’t really read too much into these ratings/outlook as Every Major business/corporation/investment holdings have taken a hit one way or the other in the last 2 yrs. Liberty’s primarily expanded by purchasing other carriers (Safeco, Ohio Casualty, Prudential P&C, etc)and that takes a hit on cash flow. Combine that with poor investment results-again, a common problem with everyone-and the ratings take a hit. Breathe in, breathe out…everything will be alright.

  • April 10, 2009 at 2:21 am
    barb wired says:
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    liberty has been operating this way for years – they buy business, and each renewal shows an increase in pricing, but its so ‘competitively priced’ that other carriers still can’t compete. tough times, but a couple years later they are back to doing the same stuff again – financial incompetence. mutual companies aren’t required to release figures, so only ted kelly knows how well off liberty is….

  • April 10, 2009 at 3:01 am
    Brokette says:
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    Wonder what Liberty’s bonuses looked like this year? Will agents be running from them like they’re running from AIG?

  • April 10, 2009 at 4:37 am
    The Oracle says:
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    In 2003 I told the RVP of Atlantic that it would be “broke, sold or dead, drifting in the water with a cut-thru endorsement to support it’s Btt rating in a year” We made a bet and the weasle never paid. I just made the same bet with a very high-level guy with Liberty, only this time, becasue of their massive size and diversity, they will part-out the car…selling that which they just bought (Safeco, et al). History guys! It’s what Aetna did in the 1980’s! Same for CNA in the late 90’s…they part-off their more stable, profitable assets (personal lines) that requires a 82% surplus ratio on personal lines so that they can fre-up capital to compete with those crazy nuts at AIG who are gutting premiums. Their surplus and capital is tied to real estate and old fashion REITS guys. Trust me! I was paid/made (way too much) to know this stuff. Liberty isn’t toast. They’re not going into a downward spiral and Kelly is a brilliant CEO. They/it will be fine…50% smaller than they are today if the bear market rally fizzles and 50% smaller than they are today if the bull market is back (becasue they are a mutual with horrible investment longevity tables they can’t get out)…either way…they will be half…too bad…I really like them and their committment to agents….Ahh..what do it know…? I’m a one-off nut who retired at age 48 trading nothing but insurance related equities up and down…
    You guys have no concept of how bad this is going to get…none! In 2009 when Zurich sells Farmers New World Life for a pittence…maybe then you and that dude from New York who outted me (my name) several months ago will realize that the market will de-lever once credit default gauarntees begin to uncouple, first in aisa and then in the EU and then here. It will take 6 days and the Treasury will step-in and when that day comes all you purist who think insurance is “did over should” or “the commming & going rule” will be “shocked”.
    Your company, your industry, your livelihoods have just started to take casualites. (And to that dude in New York: “It could’nt happen to a nicer guy”)

  • April 13, 2009 at 7:14 am
    Former Status Quo says:
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    Just as an FYI, LMG is not a mutual anymore. Do some research, they recently became a mutal holding company. The companies they operate are all stock companies with “phantom stock” held by the board. If you want to know what their results look like you should just head over to their website as they have posted all of that information for the last 10 years or so.

    From a pricing standpoint on business, every company has industry’s where they believe they are the expert, Liberty is no different. In those SICs they will likely out price everyone; however, having worked there and for other companies, there are also SICs where they are routinely outpriced.

  • April 13, 2009 at 9:22 am
    Liberty Critic says:
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    You are right, except their main SIC expertise is in the area of Banks and automotive related industries and we know how well those sectors are doing. Examples:….TD Banknorth, Commerce Bank, National City, Fifth Third, Arvin Meritor…should I go on. They are in DEEP and they know it. Also, Ted Kelly has a total lack of integrity in my opinion. He doesn’t even read his own e-mail. He is totally out of touch.

  • April 13, 2009 at 9:26 am
    Former Status Quo says:
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    Which unit are you talking about with the banks? Liberty International would be the only unit that would handle D&O or Fidelity on that scale and from my knowledge having worked at the company they are very high up in those towers in terms of limits and their portion is very small (maybe covering $5M xs $250 or $300M)

    As for the automotive side of things, those were never targeted SIC codes when I was there either – sure they now have a large personal lines auto book due to the acquisition of Safeco, but look at the 2007/08 acquisition of Ohio Casualty – a property driven company not an automotive.

    Although Ted Kelly might not answer his emails, it does not necessarily put him out of touch. You have to remember, this was a guy that took a company on the verge of collapse in the early/mid 90s and turned it into a top 5 or 6 P&C company.

    It’s very easy to make a statement but like most things at IJ, people don’t validate it with any facts, just opinions.

  • April 13, 2009 at 10:45 am
    carlfarm says:
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    i can honestly say i lack the genius of some other posters. could your please elaborate on zurich selling farmers new world life, and how it relates to the credit default guarantees. f not could you point me to resource. needing education in texas

  • April 13, 2009 at 11:29 am
    American says:
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    Oracle,

    There are boorish people posting on every site, most of the readers here clearly appreciate your comments and knowledge.

  • April 13, 2009 at 3:32 am
    Impressed says:
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    Who is “The Oracle”? I too enjoyed reading his insite and would like to research some of his other positions.

  • April 14, 2009 at 8:36 am
    watcher says:
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    Funny thing – all of the bad news around Liberty Mutual swirls, but it hasn’t trickled down to Indiana, Peerless, etc., yet. They are still the biggest whores on the street, buying business, with little to no underwriting. Indiana and Peerless UW’s should have no pride – because they require no skill. (and the same can be said for their agents)

  • April 14, 2009 at 11:48 am
    Liberty Critic says:
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    Your “Facts” are obviously very old so please don’t insult me. I am on a one woman crusade to expose these frauds. Their bank business is guaranteed cost National Accounts. I am currently at Liberty which makes my experience and “opinion” a little more accurate than yours. We have also taken to writing foundry’s at GC as well as nursing care for violent patients and bankrupt truckers.

    Ted Kelly’s previous results were a result of “right place, right time”. His greed has driven him to pressure the underwriters to expand their appetite and make unwise decisions in order to keep their jobs. He is totally out of touch. He gets his info from his inner circle of yes men who tell him what he wants to hear. (See Sandy Weill)

    This is a house of cards about to collapse.

  • April 14, 2009 at 11:56 am
    Brokette says:
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    And you’re also writing vitamin manufacturers (rated as food prods) on occurrence forms with unlimited defense while the market writes them on claims-made, defense inside. Not only are they underpriced, the coverage is dangerously broad. No ephedra, ma huang or tryptophan exclusion. Very scary!

  • April 14, 2009 at 1:05 am
    Former Status Quo says:
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    First of all, my last date of employment at Liberty was in the last 3 months so I wouldn’t call my positions out of date. Especially since I still have a large network of people I still talk to there. You say that “we” have also taken and that you are currently there, so I am going to assume that you are an employee, and if you are so enraged by the practices my question to you would be why are you still there? For someone who is such a “Critic,” I would think that you’d leave before making a bad underwriting decision such as writing bankrupt truckers, violent patients, or banks.

    Never once while I was there was I pressured to quote an account that I thought would lose money. Nor did I ever pressure any of my underwriters to quote something that they didn’t think would make money.

    Finally let’s revisit the issue on classes of business:
    Banks – again, you have yet to answer what lines they are writing…WC at a bank not an issue, same with auto, gl, or property. The concerns at a bank would be E&O and D&O which is why Liberty created the LIU facility – because they have the specialized knowledge to write those lines, not the people in National Markets.

    You have now changed Automotive SICs, to transportation which is a completely different segment. And unfortunately this is a class that I know they do write. Speaking with people that are now in the Middle Market Division, there are numerous underwriters looking at Transportation accounts that don’t know what they are doing. Prior to the reforming of the company that was a specialized SIC that was written primarily out of Atlanta and in Business Markets – it was not company wide. So on this issue, I agree with your point; however give it sometime and the learning curve will catch up. Just remember 2-3 years ago they struggled with writing construction accounts too.

    Foundries on a GC basis are not a problem as long as they are priced right and within the actuarial departments projections. I know there is a segment in Agency Markets that writes nothing but these things.

    Nursing Care, you’re going to need more specifics. Talking home healthcare? Hospitals? Institutions? Rehab facilities? etc.

    As for the house of cards lady, well you better find the door else they’re going to collapse on you.

  • April 14, 2009 at 1:42 am
    New Reader says:
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    I have been humbled by the sharing of the clearly expressed and accurate data from The Oracle in this thread. I willingly make obeisance to a source most well placed and informed. That being said, I request The Oracle again favor us with thoughts. Opining on the start-up Valiant Insurance (wholly owned by Ariel) and further opining on the divesting of Farmers by Zurich would be welcome. I wait with baited breath for comments…hey guys, I had a mint…

  • April 15, 2009 at 10:20 am
    says who says:
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    “The concerns at a bank would be E&O and D&O which is why Liberty created the LIU facility – because they have the specialized knowledge to write those lines”

    LIU….specialized underwriters? HA! More like “lets throw a dart to determine just how badly we’re going to undercut the incumbent and then we’ll throw a full defense outside. To top it all off, we’ll complain that Lexington is undercutting the market so nobody notices we’re doing the exact same thing”

  • April 15, 2009 at 11:20 am
    Liberty Critic says:
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    I love it. Liberty is not fooling anyone. WC, GL for banks doesn’t concern the “Status Quo” contributor. Payroll reductions (RP’s) and layoffs (increased WC claims) are a result, not to mention an inability to post collateral or provide collateral for other National Accounts. They are DOOMED.

  • February 25, 2010 at 9:49 am
    Josie Jones says:
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    I had an Order of the Chair from the Worker’s Compensation board ordering that I should receive massage for an injury received from my work.. Liberty Mutual, after harassing my massage therapist every time, did eventually pay them after months.

    When my orthopedic doctor recommended another round of massages, they refused to pay. Through channels, my massage therapist and Liberty Mutual received AN ORDER OF THE CHAIR from the Worker’s Compensation board. It indicated that the therapist was to give me a certain number of massages and Liberty Mutual would have to pay. AND THAT THIS COULD NOT BE DISPUTED!

    The massage therapist called Worker’s Comp and was told INDEED she had to perform the massage (which she was glad) and that Liberty Mutual HAD TO PAY and COULD NOT fight the decision.

    The therapist performed most of the massages.

    Liberty Mutual fought the ORDER. They lost. They fought it again. They lost. Finally they fought it again, and this time I was there.

    The judge obviously had no clue about the case. He did not know about the order of the chair. Everything I asked him, he referred to Liberty Mutual’s lawyer to answer.

    Liberty Mutual said they WOULD pay for massage by a physical therapist (who in this state get less than 50 hours of massage training) but not by a massage therapist (who has over 1000 hours) of training. I explained that the doctor had ordered massage because 2 years of physical therapy had left in worse condition and unable to work. With the massage, I was able to continue working, though in pain much of the time.

    The judge several times said things like “I understand your point, but I cannot help you”.

    He ended up, obviously, finding for Liberty Mutual. The amount we are talking about is less than $600 — probably the amount of bonus the person will get for rejecting a claim for someone who will have to now switch jobs because I cannot continue in my current job — thanks to Liberty Mutual.

    I just hope that Karma really works and they eventually get to experience what it is like to have someone rob them of their careers because of greed.

    Is this what America is all about? I’m ready to move to Europe and to a country that actually takes care of their citizens so that they (the citizens) can be productive members of society.

    It is companies like Liberty Mutual that will eventually cause the downfall of America as we all like to think it should be!



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