Computer Model Predicts 2 Dozen Ebola Cases in U.S. This Month

By and Lorraine Woellert | October 16, 2014

  • October 16, 2014 at 1:50 pm
    Rosie says:
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    I am glad to here our President is spending the day with experts and working on a plan to manage the issues posed by the Ebola issue. I just wish everyone would calm down, many are making this sound worse than AIDS, and implying our President does not care. I know for a fact that he and our First Lady care very deeply about this topic!

    • October 20, 2014 at 1:07 pm
      Trust me I am not a liberal says:
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      Just ‘how do you know for a fact’, Rosie? I’m not being facetious…I really am curious to know how you know for a fact that they care very deeply…

  • October 16, 2014 at 1:53 pm
    bob says:
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    “The two newly infected nurses in Dallas don’t change the numbers because they were identified quickly and it’s unlikely they infected other people, he said.”
    did he say this before or after the news came out that the second nurse flew on a commercial airline from Cleveland to Dallas while she had a fever, the day before she was admitted to the hospital?

    • October 16, 2014 at 2:34 pm
      libby says:
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      As far as I know, there are no known cases of Ebola being caught on an airplane. As a matter of fact, 5 other Ebola patients were transported to the U.S. for treatment with no transmission. Only in Dallas, where the nurses were not provided adequate equipment or training did this happen. Gotta love Texico!

      • October 16, 2014 at 11:40 pm
        Daniel says:
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        Not a fair comparison. The other 5 were flown in specially and everyone expected their arrival. Mr. Duncan just walked into a random hospital in America. The differences in outcomes shows that the general case of “random people” being infected is more challenging…

        • October 17, 2014 at 8:45 am
          Libby says:
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          Sorry. The first 2 sentences of my post were not related.

          Point #1 – no known cases of Ebola being caught by just being on the same plane with an infected person.

          Point #2 – in the other 5 cases, no healthcare workers were infected. Only in Texas where they were not provided adequate training &/or equipment.

          And Agent, before you jump all over me, my statement is true whether it is the CDC’s fault or the hospital’s.

  • October 16, 2014 at 2:08 pm
    reality bites says:
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    What’s your favorite ‘end of the world’ movie?

    Mine’s “The Children of Men”. Even though the book is better. Someone will come along with a mandatory vaccine and OOPS, those nasty side effects.

  • October 16, 2014 at 2:29 pm
    Scott says:
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    So……..if the computer predicted this, do we consider it yet another computer virus we need to update our software for? LOL

  • October 16, 2014 at 3:03 pm
    bob says:
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    libby, none of the other cases traveled commercially with other passengers while in the “communicable” stage, which means obvious fever, etc. this nurse did.
    all of the other were either in the pre-communicable stages or strictly quarantined on a private plane. it still remains to be seen what will develop, with up to 21 days of “incubation” before obvious symptoms show.

    • October 16, 2014 at 4:23 pm
      Libby says:
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      I’m not talking about these particular cases. I’m talking about all cases of Ebola to date. There have been no known cases of anyone catching on an airplane. And that includes the plane carrying Thomas Duncan, who was also showing signs when he flew. Unless you come into frequent contact with bodily fluids, you won’t catch it sitting on the same plane. But I know that’s not exciting enough, so let’s make up all kinds of scenarios to keep us afraid for our safety. On the other hand, let’s not.

      • October 17, 2014 at 12:56 am
        Anon says:
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        The truth is we really don’t know how this will pan out. More than a handful of patients would exceed the ability of the Emergency Department infrastructure in most hospitals. Ebola will spread in hospitals because of inadequate PPE and inadequate training on using that PPE. My partner is a doctor and was in a hospital (not in the US) where a suspected Ebola patient was brought in last week (I’m being deliberately non-specific on the location, but it doesn’t take much guessing). Failures in the usage of PPE (basically unsafe removal and disposal) were observed. The same kinds of problems were seen multiple times in the H1N1 outbreak in other hospitals in the region. That one potential Ebola patient took up the only room in the hospital suitable for isolating an infectious patient. What happens when there are two suspected cases or three or four? Where do you put them? Remembering that some of them might be infected and some may not be. Whilst there is no need to panic, this will be a VERY difficult problem to solve if it gets remotely out of hand. Complacency is the enemy here.

        • October 17, 2014 at 8:48 am
          Libby says:
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          I’m not being complacent. I’m just not panicking. Panicking can also be the enemy here. Be cautious, be diligent, be prepared. That’s all we can do. Mass hysteria will help no-one.

      • October 20, 2014 at 11:50 am
        An Actuary says:
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        Frequent? I don’t think so. Once is enough.

  • October 16, 2014 at 11:35 pm
    Daniel says:
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    Bad comparison with the 5 who were flown in. They were expected to arrive. That makes a huge difference to whether the various departments are geared up to respond. The proper test is to compare “unknown” arrivals to Mr. Duncan – and “known” arrivals to the others.

    • October 17, 2014 at 8:49 am
      Libby says:
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      Maybe true, maybe not. Dallas should have been “geared up” but was not properly trained on removal and disposal of their gear. Why not?

      • October 20, 2014 at 2:58 pm
        Daisy says:
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        Why should they have been “geared up”? You say not to panic, yet you think every single hospital in America should be “geared up” in anticipation of a hopefully limited number of Ebola patients. Hospitals are “geared up” for AIDs, TB, MRSA and other communicable diseases. Yet it appears they need much more gear and training for this particular virus. I’m not aware of anyone panicking. Just because people are asking questions and demanding proper precautions be taken doesn’t imply panic. No one’s cancelling their travel plans and holding up in their homes. If measures were in place at the airports sooner, perhaps Duncan wouldn’t have made it to an unprepared hospital in Texas. I don’t think it’s feasible for every hospital to provide the kind of quarantine this disease seems to require. And there should be a plan in place to transport patients to a facility that is already “geared up.” Which is what is now being done, in response to all the “panic.”

        • October 20, 2014 at 3:17 pm
          Libby says:
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          Daisy – you are terribly misinformed. Airlines, travel agents, cruise lines and individuals all over the world are cancelling travel plans. People are indeed “panicking.” They’re out in droves buying up masks, gowns, and gloves.

          When I said “geared up” I meant they should have had the proper gear on hand. Why shouldn’t they? You think it’s acceptable that a downtown hospital in the largest city in Texas not be equipped with the proper protective gear? That’s at a minimum.

          Yes, people are asking questions, but when you try to give them the facts you get attacked. You’re all ridiculous.

          • October 20, 2014 at 3:46 pm
            Daisy says:
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            Wow, I’m ridicules. Less than 1% of leisure travelers are cancelling their plans and even fewer business travelers. That’s not my idea of droves or a panic. I haven’t seen one person walking around with a mask, gown or gloves. Have you?
            Sounds like you’re the one trying to stir up panic that doesn’t exist.
            What is proper protective gear? I believe it’s more than a mask and gloves and even a hazmat suit. It sounds like they need a separate quarantine area rather than just an ICU with other patients with highly compromised immune systems.
            So no I don’t expect hospitals in every large city in America to have that type of separate quarantine unit. I expect them to transport those patients to the hospitals in Nebraska and Georgia that are “geared up” with those types of quarantine facilities.

          • October 20, 2014 at 3:52 pm
            Libby says:
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            I didn’t say they should have been able to treat him there. I said they should have had the proper protective equipment on hand. Try reading a little slower next time.

          • October 20, 2014 at 4:21 pm
            Daisy says:
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            Libby, I read fine. They had all the gear the CDC guidelines advised them to have and use.

          • October 20, 2014 at 4:33 pm
            Libby says:
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            If you read my original comment, I said they were not trained on safe removal and disposal of the gear. Some nurses had 2 or 3 pair of gloves on and this actually caused an increase in the possibility of a breach in removal.

            My hat’s off to those healthcare workers facing this disease and continuing to care for the sick. I was not denigrating the hospital or the nurses. Just stating facts. Something went wrong in Dallas.

  • October 16, 2014 at 11:38 pm
    Daniel says:
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    Slightly discouraged that “100 scientists” began work on the modelling in July. And either didn’t figure out what was about to happen, or if they did, were ignored by the politicians. Neither option is particularly encouraging.

  • October 17, 2014 at 8:51 am
    Tony says:
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    There is no such thing as “containment” as long as there are no flight restrictions. There is no such thing as “protocols” if some flunky at the now-partisan hack institution of the CDC allows a potentially infected person to fly commercial airlines becuase they “don’t believe” she’s contagious.

    This is slipshod incompetence at best; deliberate at worst. All the lame-ass excuses from the America-destroyer in the White House and what I can only assume is the stupidest person at the CDC do nothing to better the situation and only serve another insult to the American people.

    We can only hope, the “useful idiots” (liberals, Democrats, progressives, illegal aliens, etc.) suffer and die at a higher percentage than decent Americans.

    • October 17, 2014 at 11:40 am
      Libby says:
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      You are a despicable person. This is not a political issue. This is a worldwide health issue. The fact that you wish Ebola on Democrats says alot about the Republican platform. I hope they’re not all like you, but I’m beginning to wonder.

  • October 17, 2014 at 10:42 am
    nuff sed says:
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    It really is timne to restrict commercial flights coming out of West Africa. The argument that we can’t supply those in need makes no sense as yu can still take stuff in and out on special charter or military flights.
    And if Canada or Mexico fails to do the same, then we need to close those borders as well.
    We seriously need to up our game here as well as support those people on the front lines in Africa fighting this thing

    • October 17, 2014 at 11:39 am
      Libby says:
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      So nuff, if you were over in West Africa (for whatever reason) and had never been to an area where there was Ebola and never had contact with anyone exposed to Ebola how would you feel if they told you you couldn’t come back to your own country? Would you say “Oh, OK. I’ll just stay in West Africa and increase my chances of contracting Ebola.” Or “Oh, OK. I’ll fly to London and wait it out. Oh, wait! London won’t take me either!”

      Really, people. You need to put the shoe on the other foot before making ridiculous statements. People coming from over there need to be properly screened and monitored. Be cautious. Be diligent. Be prepared. STOP the mass hysteria.

    • October 20, 2014 at 9:40 am
      KY jw says:
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      I don’t think there are direct flights from West Africa to the US, so there is no way to restrict flights by the US authorities. The governments of Liberia, Nigeria and who ever the other country is would have to stop all travel. I don’t see that happening.

  • October 17, 2014 at 1:29 pm
    bob says:
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    whether or not you can contract Ebola on a plane is only part of the problem. the public perception is that it can. numerous schools were closed today because staff or children had been on the plane the nurse flew on. this type of “ripple effect”, whether correct or not, is going to get worse as more cases are confirmed, which will no doubt happen. the CDC and the administration are reluctant to restrict flights from west africa, but the public is going to demand it – and the longer we wait for that to happen the worse the situation is going to get. real or perceived.

    • October 17, 2014 at 4:52 pm
      Libby says:
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      If you were a U.S. citizen in West Africa and they told you they were not allowing you into your own country because you MIGHT be sick, how would you feel about it?

      If the public perception is incorrect, it needs correcting with education not encourgement with rash reactions. U.S. citizens should absolutely be allowed back into their own country. No matter where they have been. If they’ve been in an Ebola zone, they should be screened and monitored not barred from re-entry.

      • October 17, 2014 at 4:53 pm
        Libby says:
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        P.S. Non U.S. citizens may absolutely be barred from entry for health reasons.

  • October 17, 2014 at 3:53 pm
    draetish says:
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    The President will not restrict flights from Ebola zone for fear they will enter thru other places, i.e., the open borders where they will not be able to monitor them. Well there you have it, it’s all about Amnesty people and that “IS” political. The Prez can’t close the border this close to election time.

  • October 17, 2014 at 4:22 pm
    Libby says:
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    It’s my understanding that a U.S. citizen cannot be denied entry to the U.S. except for 3 reasons, none of which is that they might be sick.

  • October 20, 2014 at 11:07 am
    nuff sed says:
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    Ok Libby How about if we put the show on the other foot.
    How would you feel if we let someone in from a country where the virus is alive, well and uncontained, they were infected but because its a 3 week incubation, they were symptom free when they came through a US Airport-weren’t running a fever and you or a friend co-worker or family memeber catches it because of this infected person-would you be as fine with it as with your hypothetical?
    Sorry, this virus is highly contagious and hits hard when symptoms do present and then its too late.
    I’d say the same thing if there was a similar infection here in the US. Contain it where its broken out until you have a fix and above all for public health reasons, don’t let it spread.
    Many nations did just that with the Spanish Flu pandemic right after WWI. Its the only thng that kept millions more from dying worldwide.

    • October 20, 2014 at 12:42 pm
      Libby says:
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      That’s fine for non-U.S. citizens. There is no way you can bar entry for a citizen because they might be sick. Those pesky ole civil rights get in the way.

      Stay home if you’re afraid of catching the virus. Me? Unless someone pukes, pees, or spits on me, I’m pretty sure I’ll be OK. I refuse to live my life in fear. That’s a trait of people on your side.

      • October 20, 2014 at 12:45 pm
        Libby says:
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        Of course 18 people agreed with Tony when he said he hoped Democrats get Ebola. So, if it happens that I do actually get the virus you can all be happy about it.

        • October 20, 2014 at 1:19 pm
          Trust me I am not a liberal says:
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          Libby,

          I obviously wouldn’t like to see you or any other person contract this awful disease. That goes without saying and it shouldn’t be said even in jest. Do you remember when SARS was an issue and it was pin-pointed that it was coming from China? The Chinese government made the decision to stop ALL air traffic going into and leaving China. That is how SARS didn’t turn into a world-wide epidemic. I’m not panicking…but I would be lying if I said I wasn’t extremely concerned that Ebola can and just may become a world-wide epidemic. Better safe than sorry, is what I say.

          • October 20, 2014 at 1:58 pm
            Libby says:
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            Thank you, Trust Me. I, too, feel it best to be safe rather than sorry. My only point is we cannot bar U.S. citizens from entering their own country just because they might have been exposed to a disease. We can, however, bar entry to non-citizens.

            I agree with KY jw that the travel has to be stopped at the origin of the disease as it was in China with SARS.

            On a more positive note, I did hear that there are not alot of people trying to enter the U.S. from West Africa. But that was from a government employee, so I’m not sure you would believe the source…

        • October 20, 2014 at 2:31 pm
          uct says:
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          I would be jumping with joy if that happened Libby. You are the most full of it person to ever post on these boards.

          YOUR POTUS is playing golf and appointing new Czar’s, who do not even show up for their meetings… On the bright side, only how much time left for this idiot? What are you going to do then? You know the next POTUS, even if a Democrat, is going to blame all the ills of this nation directly on Owebama. Maybe Ebola will take enough of us so his legacy isn’t all about Benghazi, Fast & Furious, the pull out of soldiers from Iraq, Ebola, illegal aliens, voter fraud and Socialism. :)

          • October 20, 2014 at 2:52 pm
            Libby says:
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            You’re a horrible person uct. I would never hope Ebola on you. But you’re right on one thing. Hillary will be scapegoating Obama come 2016. LOL!

    • October 20, 2014 at 1:48 pm
      KY jw says:
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      Then, nuff sed, the containment has to be done by the originating countries. Even if the politicians here could agree on it, they can’t MAKE the countries of West Africa stop all travel.

  • October 20, 2014 at 11:34 am
    Realist says:
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    The fact is, even the CDC says it takes 3 weeks to show….come on people….taking someone’s temperature won’t tell you ANYTHING, some say incubation is 48 days anyway.

    • October 20, 2014 at 12:43 pm
      Libby says:
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      It will tell you they don’t have the virus AT THAT TIME. That doesn’t mean they shouldn’t be monitored if they’re coming from West Africa.

      • October 21, 2014 at 11:47 am
        Get your facts straight says:
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        I know I’m being picky, but not having a temperature is not an indication of not having the virus. It’s just an indication of whether the virus is in a transferrable stage – at least as far was we currently know.

        • October 21, 2014 at 12:02 pm
          Libby says:
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          True. You could still have the virus but just not be contagious.

  • October 20, 2014 at 11:48 am
    Paul I. Bangura says:
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    I personal want to know if there have been any confirmed Medicine for the cure of this deadly Ebola Disease, because I wonder what treatment the two infected Victims in Texas are responding to now.

    • October 20, 2014 at 12:43 pm
      Libby says:
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      No. There is no “cure” but you can recover from it.

  • October 20, 2014 at 1:51 pm
    Libby says:
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    Since I am the expert on this topic…well actually on all topics. I am the smartest person in the world and you are all being SILLY GOOSES! Quit being hysterical over this…it’s NO big deal…little puke, little diarrhea…NO BIGGIE. I am the top leading expert on how it is spread and NO WAY this could be any type of new mutation of the virus or a bioengineered version of it. Geese people, I have already invited the quarantined to have extended stays at my home because as long as they don’t puke, pee or spit on me, I AM FINE!!

    Please everyone say 10 Hail Libby’s and go about your day and quit being WORRY WARTS…because I, Libby the Ebola and all other things, EXPERT says so.

    Obviously this is not the real “Libby”…I have been on this site long enough and have run across her type in the real world….it is really sad in reality because THIS is her life. This is what her world consist (really she should try and get a job at IJ..get paid for your consistent all day long blogging) of and she will deny it and try to make a quick good comeback…and that’s fine, I do love reading some of the crap she posts. And I am not a Republican either Libby, I am actually one of your own peeps, just calling it like I see it.

    In this case Libby, NO ONE is the EXPERT

    • October 20, 2014 at 2:05 pm
      Libby says:
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      Blow it out your ear, whoever you are hiding behind my moniker. It doesn’t take an expert to research and LEARN about any subject. If you think it comes across as smarty-pants then that’s on you. I only try to impart FACTS instead of all the right-wing propoganda that gets slung around this site.

      As far Ebola goes, it’s been around for decades moron. There ARE actually experts on it. Show us evidence that this virus has “mutated” please. If you don’t have evidence, then shut your piehole as you’re just adding to the mass hysteria.

      And yes, since you can ONLY get Ebola by the exchange of bodily fluids (true fact – look it up) then unless someone A) has Ebola and B) defecates, pees, spits, bleeds out, or pukes on me I AM FINE.

      And you HAVE NOT met me in the “real world.” You obviously know nothing about me judging by your post.

      • October 20, 2014 at 2:51 pm
        Awe, wittle Wibby got upset :( says:
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        This will be my only response back to you as I really do work and you aren’t worth anymore responses than this. Gee, hit a sore spot did I Libby? That was a long winded “comeback” and a piss poor one at that..I did expect a little more from you…disappointing. Reading comprehension would do you wonders as you love to tell others sooo often.

        I have no facts that I need to prove, I never said it DID, I said it COULD.

        Never said I met you…just your TYPE. And I am dead on with your TYPE and CAN prove this by your ranting post back to me and the 10,000,000’s more you post on any given IJ topic.

        Not adding to mass hysteria, just have common sense and believe that this could be a very serious situation in the US. You say the right wings are blowing it up, you are doing the exact opposite, making it seem like nothing..both sides are wrong for that.

        I’ll shut my pie hole when you shut your fly trap..all that spews out of your mouth is crap.

        • October 20, 2014 at 3:24 pm
          Libby says:
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          Hit a sore spot? That was the intent, was it not? Again, you’re short on facts and big on bullshit. It COULD mutate. Yeah, and you COULD grow a brain (or some balls) sometime in your lifetime, but it ain’t gonna happen.

          You belittle me as being the expert on Ebola, yet can not cite one incorrect fact I have stated. So maybe I AM the expert on Ebola. At least on IJ.

          You’ve never met my type. You know nothing about me. I’m not making Ebola seem like nothing. It certainly is something if you’re in Liberia, Guinea, or Sierra Leone. Or Dallas and Columbus. I don’t know where you live, but I imagine it a little mapdot trailer park, so I think you’re probably safe.

          And there is no need for any further response from you. In fact, I welcome no response from you.

          • October 20, 2014 at 3:27 pm
            Libby says:
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            Was that better?

        • October 21, 2014 at 10:21 am
          Libby says:
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          I don’t know, Awe. With that picture I can see why you’re so ornery. Are you a man or a woman? Seriously. I can’t tell.

  • October 20, 2014 at 2:29 pm
    Realist says:
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    Groan, please, not two Libbys. Now I have a headache.

    • October 20, 2014 at 2:50 pm
      Libby says:
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      How flattering to be so recognized and commented on.

  • October 20, 2014 at 3:31 pm
    Safety Guy says:
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    With all the homeless and illegal aliens we have in this country, it will spread faster than most think, but not like the model shows.

    That said, since some have survived, a vaccine will be developed to stem the tide. A cure won’t be developed for ages though…

    • October 20, 2014 at 3:39 pm
      Libby says:
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      Just curious. Why do you think it will spread among the illegal aliens and homeless first?

  • October 20, 2014 at 5:07 pm
    Realist says:
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    Y’all are unnecessarily mean. Does that mean your life sucks?

    BTW, Libby, please don’t be so specific about Ebola. There are many unknowns. It is prudent to be cautious with something(anything) so deadly.
    Respectfully submitted,
    Realist.
    Have a nice day

    • October 20, 2014 at 9:06 pm
      Libby says:
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      There really aren’t that many unknowns. It’s been around since the 50’s. Not sure why everyone is saying there are so many unknowns. That’s simply not true. Be cautious, yes. But we know how to protect ourselves.

      • October 20, 2014 at 9:08 pm
        Libby says:
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        BTW. I haven’t been mean. Just stating facts. Sorry it doesn’t fit the right wing fear monte ring agenda. Just sayin.

  • October 20, 2014 at 9:08 pm
    Libby says:
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    Mongering



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