Comparing 2016 and 2015 to 2014 to 2008 years is misleading because they were RECESSION YEARS! You have to compare boom year to boom year (the last boom year was 2007 which had a higher death rate and higher deaths).
The increase is economic. The recession years depressed driving, in particular DUI, younger drivers, and less discretionary (travel) driving.
The last boom year (not counting 2015), was 2007, where then we drove a record number of miles.
In the 2007 US deaths were 41,259 which was at the time the biggest driving year till 2015.
2015 deaths are LOWER! And if the 19,100 6 months number, will be lower than 2007 despite even more miles driven than 2015 in 2016.
It is really important to NOT compare 2016 or 2015 to the recession years as any comparison to 2008 to 2014 numbers SKEW the results due the recession affecting the numbers.
Here are 2006 thur 2014.
http://www-fars.nhtsa.dot.gov/Main/index.aspx
2006 US Death rate per mile 1.42 Total Deaths 42,708 Miles Driven 3.014 Trillion (3,014 VMT Billion)
2007 US Death rate per mile 1.36 Total Deaths 41,259 Miles Driven 3.031 Trillion
Recession Begins
2008 US Death rate per mile 1.26 Total deaths 37,423. Miles Driven 2.977 Trillion (2,977 VMT Billion)
Full year of recession
2009 US Death rate per mile 1.15 Total deaths 33,883. Miles Driven 2.957 Trillion
2010 US Death rate per mile 1.11 Total deaths 32,999. Miles Driven 2.967 Trillion
2011 US Death rate per mile 1.10 Total deaths 32,479. Miles Driven 2.950 Trillion
2012 US Death rate per mile 1.14 Total deaths 33,782. Miles Driven 2.969 Trillion
2013 US Death rate per mile 1.10 Total deaths 32,894. Miles Driven 2,988 Trillion
Starting to leave Recession
2014 US Death rate per mile 1.08 Total deaths 32,675. Miles Driven 3.026 Trillion (3,026 VMT Billion)
Also note that a lot of the deaths in places like AL had a high percentage of people NOT WEARING seat belts too. Couple that with more miles, more likely DUI and younger drivers, that is why it is higher also than the recession years.
Also it would be helpful if NSC would also use the DEATH RATE per mile as it takes into account the miles driven too. 2015 was 1.12, thought higher than 2014 and 2013, was lower than 2012.
(attempts by some to use the “speed limit” like in IL are misguided and dishonest, as many other states have had higher speed limits for well over 2 decades).
Again we are dealing with an economic increase and the effects of that. When the next recession hits, and DUI, younger drivers, and discretionary driving drops so will the deaths.
Honest question for which I will be down voted about 100 times.
What role do you think distracted driving due to the use of cell phones to talk and text play in increasing deaths on the highway. I am interested in your honest opinion.
Good question Agent. I doubt there will be any hard and fast statistics on this however. I’m sure a lot of phone distraction related accidents are not described as such.
Dave, with the increasing popularity of small cars, that is sure to increase highway deaths. Mitsubishi Mirage, Smart Cars are a death trap and it doesn’t take much of a collision to total one.
That is an excellent point. With seat belt laws, more cars with air bags and generally safer vehicles plying our roadways you’d think that traffic fatalities would be down. The one negative factor that has certainly been on the rise is distracted driving.
it would be helpful to understand commercial truck VS. automobiles involved .secondly I would suspect that the increased road construction would have a direct correlation to the increased number of highway fatalities. our highways are less safe today in certain areas due to the economic booms and increased influx of families moving to those areas as well as the increased highway construction and reconstruction.
Dave, actually they have called for it in metro areas and would much prefer people take the subway, buses or taxi’s or Uber. Good luck in having SUV’s banned in the great flyover part of America. People are not jammed together like sardines in much of America.
A study on distracted driving would most likely confirm that distracted drivers have little or no opportunity to brake prior to colliding with things. Hitting things at a higher speed causes more bodily and property damage to themselves and others…and more fatalities. This has to be contributing to higher costs of claims, in addition to the fact that more miles are being driven due to lower gas prices.
Comparing 2016 and 2015 to 2014 to 2008 years is misleading because they were RECESSION YEARS! You have to compare boom year to boom year (the last boom year was 2007 which had a higher death rate and higher deaths).
The increase is economic. The recession years depressed driving, in particular DUI, younger drivers, and less discretionary (travel) driving.
The last boom year (not counting 2015), was 2007, where then we drove a record number of miles.
http://www-fars.nhtsa.dot.gov/Main/index.aspx
In the 2007 US deaths were 41,259 which was at the time the biggest driving year till 2015.
2015 deaths are LOWER! And if the 19,100 6 months number, will be lower than 2007 despite even more miles driven than 2015 in 2016.
It is really important to NOT compare 2016 or 2015 to the recession years as any comparison to 2008 to 2014 numbers SKEW the results due the recession affecting the numbers.
Here are 2006 thur 2014.
http://www-fars.nhtsa.dot.gov/Main/index.aspx
2006 US Death rate per mile 1.42 Total Deaths 42,708 Miles Driven 3.014 Trillion (3,014 VMT Billion)
2007 US Death rate per mile 1.36 Total Deaths 41,259 Miles Driven 3.031 Trillion
Recession Begins
2008 US Death rate per mile 1.26 Total deaths 37,423. Miles Driven 2.977 Trillion (2,977 VMT Billion)
Full year of recession
2009 US Death rate per mile 1.15 Total deaths 33,883. Miles Driven 2.957 Trillion
2010 US Death rate per mile 1.11 Total deaths 32,999. Miles Driven 2.967 Trillion
2011 US Death rate per mile 1.10 Total deaths 32,479. Miles Driven 2.950 Trillion
2012 US Death rate per mile 1.14 Total deaths 33,782. Miles Driven 2.969 Trillion
2013 US Death rate per mile 1.10 Total deaths 32,894. Miles Driven 2,988 Trillion
Starting to leave Recession
2014 US Death rate per mile 1.08 Total deaths 32,675. Miles Driven 3.026 Trillion (3,026 VMT Billion)
Also note that a lot of the deaths in places like AL had a high percentage of people NOT WEARING seat belts too. Couple that with more miles, more likely DUI and younger drivers, that is why it is higher also than the recession years.
Also it would be helpful if NSC would also use the DEATH RATE per mile as it takes into account the miles driven too. 2015 was 1.12, thought higher than 2014 and 2013, was lower than 2012.
(attempts by some to use the “speed limit” like in IL are misguided and dishonest, as many other states have had higher speed limits for well over 2 decades).
Again we are dealing with an economic increase and the effects of that. When the next recession hits, and DUI, younger drivers, and discretionary driving drops so will the deaths.
Stephen, you gave out a lot of statistics.
Honest question for which I will be down voted about 100 times.
What role do you think distracted driving due to the use of cell phones to talk and text play in increasing deaths on the highway. I am interested in your honest opinion.
Good question Agent. I doubt there will be any hard and fast statistics on this however. I’m sure a lot of phone distraction related accidents are not described as such.
Dave, I guess Stephen just disappeared off the map after putting together all those stats. All I want is his opinion.
Dave, with the increasing popularity of small cars, that is sure to increase highway deaths. Mitsubishi Mirage, Smart Cars are a death trap and it doesn’t take much of a collision to total one.
That is an excellent point. With seat belt laws, more cars with air bags and generally safer vehicles plying our roadways you’d think that traffic fatalities would be down. The one negative factor that has certainly been on the rise is distracted driving.
it would be helpful to understand commercial truck VS. automobiles involved .secondly I would suspect that the increased road construction would have a direct correlation to the increased number of highway fatalities. our highways are less safe today in certain areas due to the economic booms and increased influx of families moving to those areas as well as the increased highway construction and reconstruction.
With all these deaths caused by vehicles I’m surprised the left has not called for a ban on cars. Especially SUV’s the “assault rifle” of vehicles.
Dave, actually they have called for it in metro areas and would much prefer people take the subway, buses or taxi’s or Uber. Good luck in having SUV’s banned in the great flyover part of America. People are not jammed together like sardines in much of America.
please source your claim that the democrats are trying to ban SUVs
A study on distracted driving would most likely confirm that distracted drivers have little or no opportunity to brake prior to colliding with things. Hitting things at a higher speed causes more bodily and property damage to themselves and others…and more fatalities. This has to be contributing to higher costs of claims, in addition to the fact that more miles are being driven due to lower gas prices.