Insurance and Climate Change column

Report: California Wildfires Will Get Worse, Blame Climate Change

By | July 18, 2019

  • July 18, 2019 at 5:50 pm
    Craig Cornell says:
    Hot debate. What do you think?
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    From the article:

    “Increased summer forest‐fire area very likely occurred due to increased atmospheric aridity caused by warming,” the report states.
    Since the early 1970s, warm‐season days warmed by roughly 1.4°C as part of a centennial warming trend, according to the report.

    Wait, what? “very likely”? You mean you aren’t certain? I thought this was all settled science! What about the changes in forest management in California, and the fact that formerly remote areas with tons of brush are now homes to millions? Where do those factors come into play?

    And the “centennial warming trend” must not be from NASA’s third version of the historical record, which actually showed a cooling trend from 1880 to 2016.

    But, hey, if you say something often enough it doesn’t have to be true. People will start to believe it from repetition alone.

    Keep it up, Insurance Journal. I have a big wager with a buddy that IJ won’t publish any of the science that casts doubt on the Scary Monster until at least 2025. Looking good!

    • July 19, 2019 at 7:58 am
      Rosenblatt says:
      Well-loved. Like or Dislike:
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      I’m just going to leave this here: The IPCC’s likelihood scale:

      Virtually certain: 99% to 100%
      Extremely likely: Over 95%
      Very likely: Above 90%
      Likely: Above 66%
      More likely than not: 50% and above
      About as likely as not: Between 33% and 66%
      Unlikely: 0% to 33%
      Very unlikely: 0% to 10%
      Extremely unlikely: 0% to 5%

      • July 19, 2019 at 12:50 pm
        Craig Cornell says:
        Hot debate. What do you think?
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        Virtually certain of what? If you want to debate Climate Change, bring it.
        I know way more than you do, just like I do about marijuana.

        Certain of what? Integrity Test Warning.

        • July 19, 2019 at 1:53 pm
          Rosenblatt says:
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          Hahaha. You kill me, Craig. Those terms and their ranges are confidence intervals. You know more about Climate Change than me yet you don’t even understand what a confidence interval is? Hilarious.

        • July 19, 2019 at 1:55 pm
          Rosenblatt says:
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          Also, you already quoted the article which referenced the confidence interval, so I don’t know why you need me to post something you already cited. But okay … here it is again: “Increased summer forest‐fire area very likely occurred due to increased atmospheric aridity caused by warming…”

          • July 19, 2019 at 2:02 pm
            craig cornell says:
            Hot debate. What do you think?
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            Hahaha. You kill me Rosenblatt. You are like the guy who keeps falling for the same trick. I set you up again, and you took the bait again.

            The report is not from the IPCC! And nowhere in the report (try the link) does this obscure group of Climate Zealots reference the IPCC scale at all. It is all just words, and there is no connection to the IPCC standard.

            But hey, when you’re a liberal, Truth is optional.

            And I predicted correctly: you can’t say what the IPCC is “virtually certain” of when it comes to Climate Change. Because the answer is nothing.

          • July 19, 2019 at 2:32 pm
            Rosenblatt says:
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            “…It is all just words….” Just like your ad hominem attacks, your goalpost shifting, your appeal to ignorance, and all the other argument fallacies you continue to unsuccessfully use to try and troll me.

          • July 19, 2019 at 5:48 pm
            Craig Cornell says:
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            And the Lefty always ends with the insults. Boo hoo.

            How about this: “Hahaha. You kill me, Craig. . . you don’t even know understand what a confidence interval is? Hilarious.” Oh, wait. That’s what YOU said first!

            I guess I should cry foul, post the IJ rules of engagement and ask my Mommy to kiss my boo boo when you say that. . .

  • July 22, 2019 at 10:54 am
    jsmooth says:
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    Does anyone else dislike blueberry cheesecake? I prefer mine to be plain ‘ol New York Style. I did have one once with chocolate swirls in it that was pretty good.

    Climate change? Aren’t we all tired of hearing about climate change? It was hot yesterday and it’s only 77 here today (St. Louis). The climate changed. Since yesterday. Tomorrow it’s going to be 81, so the climate is changing again. My freezer freezes water into ice. Is that climate change or is it just a machine doing its job? Anyway, talking about cheesecake is much more fun.

    • July 22, 2019 at 11:33 am
      Rosenblatt says:
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      climate change =/= weather

      • July 22, 2019 at 3:30 pm
        jsmooth says:
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        Rosenblatt – I know the difference between climate change and weather. lol I am just trying to keep things light around here. Too much arguing and not nearly enough fun. Everyone online is an expert in every field. Heck, just at IJ alone we have experts in climate change, taxation, politics of every kind, foreign policy, terrorism and the constitution, just to name a few. With all the experts here, it answers the question of why aren’t there any in Washington…. “I don’t have time to be President. I’m commenting on Insurance Journal.”

        I’ll say this for climate change – The climate is changing. That about sums it up. Why is it changing? Who knows. Is it man-made? Geez, man only wishes we had that much power. Can we stop it? Not likely. Will going “green” change it? No. What’s the solution? Easy. Turn off the tv, shut down the computer and enjoy the day. It isn’t going to be changed. Again, that is man thinking he/she can do anything at all to sway something much bigger than all of us. If it were man-made, other planets would not be warming up as well (see links I posted on another climate change article here a few weeks ago). If it’s not man-made, we cannot change it and it’s likely a cyclical event. With other planets warming up, it’s likely a universal cyclical event. Whatever the case, it isn’t going to be “fixed” by anything we can do, so arguing seems pointless.

        Cheesecake – Now there is a topic we can discuss. I agree with Jax Agent. Mushy or runny cheesecake isn’t really cheesecake. It’s soup. It’s at least a debatable topic. I am an internet cheesecake expert because I ate a piece once. Keep that in mind when debating.

        • July 22, 2019 at 3:54 pm
          Rosenblatt says:
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          Sorry for not picking up on your humor with the weather/climate aspect of your post. I guess I just have a visceral reaction when I read someone say (be it as a joke or not) that the current weather proves something about climate change. More often than not, I find people do not understand the two terms are not interchangeable. While I won’t get into the nitty gritty of your post — except to say man can definitely control SOME aspects of what happens to the planet as evidenced by how and why the ozone layer hole has changed since the 80’s — I’ll now respond to the non-serious part of your post instead :D

          You talk about mushy cheesecake not being real cheesecake, and I agree, but what’s up with these vegan cheesecakes I’m seeing? Isn’t that an oxymoron? How can it be cheesecake if there’s no freaking cheese in it?!?! That’s cheesecsake blasphemy if you ask me!

          I think you and Jax are too focused on fruit cheesecake. S’mores, Oreo, cookie dough, boston cream cheesecake … those would stomp all over your “healthy” fruit-style cheesecake if there was a cheesecake bracket competition, IMO.

    • July 22, 2019 at 2:11 pm
      Jax Agent says:
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      “Climate is what we expect. Weather is what we get.” – Mark Twain

      I like cheesecake that has a solid consistency. I don’t like mushy or runny cheesecake. Beyond that, blueberries, strawberries, …..sure.

  • July 25, 2019 at 2:11 pm
    FFA says:
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    I liken climate change to auto accidents. It happens.

    • July 25, 2019 at 5:05 pm
      So why says:
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      Exactly. So, much like accidents, we make every effort to minimize their occurrences and the damage they cause. See stop lights and seat belts.

      • July 26, 2019 at 1:12 pm
        Also... says:
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        We make every effort to remove the human error aspect of it. See parallel park assist, lane drift detection, automatic pre-crash braking, etc.



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