With third-quarter earnings reports for publicly traded companies slowing down to a trickle, and FEMA publishing an estimate of NFIP last Friday, Carrier Management has updated a company-by-company list of Hurricane Ian estimates.
The latest figures tally to $20.2 billion (as of Nov. 13), excluding the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s estimate of $3.5 billion-$5.3 billion for the National Flood Insurance Program. Including a $4 billion estimate for NFIP, the total including NFIP is just over $24 billion. (The midpoint of FEMA’s range is $4.4 billion, but a media statement indicates that the reinsurance program has a $4 billion trigger.)
With no figures available for large national mutual companies, such as State Farm, the largest estimates on our list are generally associated with reinsurers and Citizens. Excluding NFIP, the largest single estimate is Berkshire Hathaway’s $2.7 billion, which consists of $600 million for GEICO, $600 million for other primary operations, and $1.5 billion for the reinsurance operations.
Although Berkshire’s property/casualty reinsurance operations had the largest share of the total, reinsurance turned in a small profit for the conglomerate, while the GEICO and the rest of he primary operations reported combined ratios of roughly 108.
As of Nov. 18, Carrier Management’s running tally also includes a $2.650 billion figure for Lloyd’s, the average of a $2.3 billion-$3 billion range announced by Lloyd’s earlier in the day .
Hurricane Ian Loss Estimates By Carrier ($ Millions)
Date
Company
Net
Reference article
10/5/2022
Citizens Property Insurance Corp.
2,400.0
Florida Citizens Revises Ian Loss Estimate to $3.8B, Including Litigation Expenses (insurancejournal.com)
United Insurance Holdings Corp.
36.4
United Insurance Holdings Corp. Announces Estimated Losses From Hurricane Ian | Business Wire
10/13/2022
Heritage Insurance Holdings #
40.0
Heritage Provides Estimated Impact of Hurricane Ian – Oct 13, 2022 (heritagepci.com)
10/13/2022
Progressive Corp.
785.0
Progressive Loses A Bundle: Nearly $2.0B Gross Ian Losses; $760M Net (carriermanagement.com)
10/14/2022
RLI Corp.*
40.0
RLI Announces Hurricane Ian Loss Estimates | Business Wire
10/18/2022
Swiss Re
1,300.0
Swiss Re Expects Hurricane Ian Claims to Bring Q3 Loss (carriermanagement.com)
10/19/2022
Allstate
360.0
Allstate Sees Q3 Net Loss; Auto Reserve Boosts More Damaging Than Ian (carriermanagement.com)
10/19/2022
Arch Capital **
545.0
Arch Capital Group Ltd. Announces Catastrophe Loss Estimates | Business Wire
10/19/2022
Everest Re
600.0
Everest Announces Preliminary Impact of Third Quarter 2022 Catastrophe Events | Business Wire
10/19/2022
RenaissanceRe
540.0
RenaissanceRe Announces Estimated Net Negative Impact on Third Quarter 2022 Results of Operations | Business Wire
10/19/2022
Travelers Corp.
326.0
Travelers Q3 Net Income Falls 31% (insurancejournal.com)
10/20/2022
AXIS Capital
160.0
AXIS Capital Comments on Impact of Catastrophe and Other Weather-Related Losses on Third Quarter 2022 Financial Results | Business Wire
10/20/2022
Cincinnati Financial
220.0
Cincinnati Financial Corporation Announces Preliminary Estimate for Third-Quarter Storm Losses (prnewswire.com)
10/20/2022
The Hanover
28.0
The Hanover Estimates Third Quarter Catastrophe Losses and Preliminary Results (prnewswire.com)
10/23/2022
Munich Re
1,600.0
Munich Re Estimates $1.6B Hit From Hurricane Ian Could Affect 2022 Targets (carriermanagement.com)
10/24/2022
W. R. Berkley **
94.0
Berkley Cooling On Professional Lines, Firing Up Property Cat Re Engines (carriermanagement.com)
10/25/2022
Chubb
975.0
Chubb’s Q3 Numbers: Net Income Falls on Realized Losses; P/C Profits Up 15% (carriermanagement.com)
10/27/2022
The Hartford
214.0
Q3 Net Income Down 30% at The Hartford; $214M in Ian Losses (carriermanagement.com)
10/27/2022
Kinsale+
26.0
Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. | Kinsale Capital Group Reports Third Quarter 2022 Results
10/31/2022
CNA
87.0
CNA Records 50% Drop in Q3 Net Income (carriermanagement.com)
11/1/2022
AIG
450.0
AIG Reports Q3 Results With $450M in Losses From Ian (insurancejournal.com)
11/1/2022
James River
5.0
James River Announces Third Quarter 2022 Results (globenewswire.com)
11/1/2022
Markel
70.0
Markel Q3 Income Drops on Investments but Insurance ‘Solidly Profitable’ (carriermanagement.com)
11/2/2022
American Financial Group
39.0
American Financial Group, Inc. Announces Third Quarter Results and Declares Special Dividend | Business Wire
11/2/2022
AXA
414.0
2022-11-02 – AXA – Press release – 9M22 Activity Indicators (axa-contento-118412.eu)
11/2/2022
Greenlight Re
19.5
Press Release Earnings 2022 Q3 (greenlightre.com)
11/2/2022
Hiscox Ltd
135.0
Q3 2022 trading statement | Hiscox Group
11/2/2022
Kemper**
27.0
Kemper Reports Third Quarter 2022 Operating Results | Business Wire
11/2/2022
Selective
10.0
Selective Reports Third Quarter 2022 Results, Including Net Income of $0.66 per Diluted Common Share and Non-GAAP Operating Income(1) of $0.99 per Diluted Common Share (prnewswire.com)
11/2/2022
SiriusPoint
80.1
SiriusPoint Ltd. – SiriusPoint reports year-over-year improvement of underwriting results and simplifies operating platform (siriuspt.com)
11/3/2022
Fairfax Financial Holdings
560.0
Fairfax – Fairfax Financial Holdings Limited: Financial Results for the Third Quarter
11/3/2022
Lancashire Insurance*
175.0
Results, Reports & Presentations (lancashiregroup.com)
11/3/2022
Liberty Mutual
835.0
q3-2022-earnings-release1.pdf (libertymutualgroup.com)
11/5/2022
Berkshire Hathaway
2,700.0
Berkshire Hathaway Reports $2.7B Loss in Third Quarter (carriermanagement.com)
11/6/2022
Hannover Re
286.0
Hannover Re Quarterly Statement 09/30/2022
11/7/2022
Argo Group
4.2
Argo Group Reports Third Quarter 2022 Results | Business Wire
11/7/2022
White Mountains
51.0
WHITE MOUNTAINS REPORTS THIRD QUARTER RESULTS (prnewswire.com)
11/8/2022
Lemonade
2.2
Lemonade 10Q SEC Filing
11/9/2022
Kin
2.5
Kin Insurance Maintains Steady Year-Over-Year Growth in Third Quarter, Increasing 151% Year-to-Date | Kin Insurance
11/9/2022
PartnerRe
300.0
PartnerRe Ltd. Reports Third Quarter 2022 Results – PartnerRe
11/9/2022
SCOR
289.0
First nine months 2022 results | SCOR
11/9/2022
Zurich
550.0
Zurich Insurance Expects $550M Hit From Hurricane Ian, but On Track to Beat Targets (insurancejournal.com)
11/10/2022
Hippo
4.7
Hippo-Shareholders-2022-Q3-v8[47].pdf (q4cdn.com)
11/11/2022
Beazley plc
120.0
REG – Beazley PLC -Trading statement (investis.com)
11/18/2022
Lloyd’s
2,650.0
Lloyd’s Ian Claims More Than $2B (carriermanagement.com)
as of 11/13/2022
Total Incl NFIP
20,155.6
11/10/2022
NFIP*
4,000.0
FEMA Projects $3.5-$5.3B NFIP Losses for Hurricane Ian
as of 11/13/2022
Total Incl NFIP
24,155.6
* Range of net losses provided by company; CM used the midpoint
** Includes catastrophes other than Ian
+ Approximate: Estimated based on loss ratio points and earned premium
Note: Loss figure of $2.6 billion used for Citizens assumes no reinsurance recoveries.
In aggregate, the tally as of mid-November still falls far below industrywide estimates of Hurricane Ian losses put out by modeling firms and rating agencies in the days following Ian’s landfall, which average to around $55 billion.
Hurricane Ian Industrywide Loss Estimates ($ Billions)
CM and IJ staff reports. Aon report summarized by Insurance Journal’s L.S. Howard
Topics
Catastrophe
Carriers
Natural Disasters
Hurricane
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