Quiet 2013 Hurricane Season a ‘Head Scratcher’ for Embarrassed Forecasters

By Tom Brown | September 9, 2013

  • September 9, 2013 at 7:52 am
    Roland says:
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    If this keeps up I’m sure we will be told that this calm is a bad thing, and is caused by the evil, polluting activity of us humans. The experts will tell us that, contrary to the reasoning of us simpletons who consider it a blessing not to have homes and businesses blown away, this absence of storms is actually further evidence that we are destroying the environment. Politicians will come to the rescue with new taxes and regulations to “restart the climate.” And of course all the while, the tax-funded studiers will caution us that more tax-funded study is needed.

  • September 9, 2013 at 11:23 am
    Rocket 88 says:
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    There’s an old saying…”Want to make God laugh? Just plan on what your doing tomorrow”. Making any kind of forecast is what makes life interesting, especially around budget time….

  • September 9, 2013 at 11:26 am
    Rocket 88 says:
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    There is an old saying…”Want to make God laugh? Just make plans for tomorrow”….forcasts of any kind is what makes life interesting…especially around budget time.!!

  • September 9, 2013 at 11:26 am
    youngin' says:
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    This comment also makes me scratch my head.

  • September 9, 2013 at 11:30 am
    Rocket 88 says:
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    Forcasts is what makes life interesting…especially around Budget time!!

    • September 17, 2013 at 1:40 pm
      insurance is fun! says:
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      one more time, Rocket!

  • September 9, 2013 at 1:34 pm
    jay says:
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    This is so weird that we are so far below the normal. It must be the climate change (or it must be the milk).

  • September 9, 2013 at 1:46 pm
    Dan says:
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    With all the analytical modeling out there you would think that we could assess probabilities more accurately or see some type of trending observed. Is it El Nino, South American droughts, African winds, Pacific water temps, polar ice caps, whatever.

    • September 9, 2013 at 3:07 pm
      youngin' says:
      Hot debate. What do you think?
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      You appear to be a little confused on the concept of probability.

  • September 9, 2013 at 1:50 pm
    WyomingAgent says:
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    Just goes to show that long range forecasting really is an inexact science. Heck, they can’t even acurately forcast 3 days out!

  • September 9, 2013 at 2:18 pm
    SFLLauren says:
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    Thanks for jinxing us Insurance Journal!

  • September 9, 2013 at 2:24 pm
    Dave says:
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    Must be global warming.

    • September 9, 2013 at 3:31 pm
      Agent says:
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      Only in America can you have an organization in Colorado trying to predict Hurricanes. They consistently get it wrong and then try to make excuses why it didn’t come out like they expected.

      • September 10, 2013 at 3:01 pm
        InsGuy says:
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        Well, you know, due to their elevation they are better able to observe the upper level winds than those coastal guys!

        Seriously though, with satellites and current technology, what does location have to do with anything?

        • September 11, 2013 at 9:31 am
          Agent says:
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          Those guys in Colorado are having a “Rocky Mountain High” and smoking some of that weed that was approved recently. No wonder they can’t get anything right.

      • September 11, 2013 at 12:29 pm
        Cheetoh Mulligan says:
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        I am starting an organization in Miami that will predict snow fall in Colorado. Any investors???

      • September 13, 2013 at 9:21 am
        Agent says:
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        I wonder if these Colorado boys foresaw the flash flooding in their own state.

    • September 9, 2013 at 3:56 pm
      Sherinae says:
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      Now they are saying we are headed for global cooling.

      “Top scientists now warning of global cooling
      Record return of Arctic ice cap as it grows by 60% in single year
      Published: 2 days ago
      London Daily Mail) A chilly Arctic summer has left nearly a million more square miles of ocean covered with ice than at the same time last year – an increase of 60 per cent.
      The rebound from 2012′s record low comes six years after the BBC reported that global warming would leave the Arctic ice-free in summer by 2013.
      Instead, days before the annual autumn re-freeze is due to begin, an unbroken ice sheet more than half the size of Europe already stretches from the Canadian islands to Russia’s northern shores.

      Read more at http://www.wnd.com/2013/09/top-scientists-now-warning-of-global-cooling/#rxf6MvS3tq1dyClA.99

      Talk about scratching your head. I wander how much money ole Al will make from this?

      • September 10, 2013 at 1:26 pm
        Mr. Solvent says:
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        Anyone around in the 70′s can tell you about the hysteria of global cooling. It seems interesting that any politician that was alive in the 70′s could rally around the same BS for warming.

      • September 11, 2013 at 8:49 am
        ComradeAnon says:
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        World Net Daily? If you ever want to be taken seriously in life, I wouldn’t mention WND.

      • September 13, 2013 at 6:56 am
        Inquisitor says:
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        Sherinae, I really wish that the info in that article you cite is credible. However, there are a lot of holes with it. Just one being that a 60% increase of a small fraction of the average is still a small fraction of the average. They’re looking for eyes to land on their ads. Nothing more.

    • September 10, 2013 at 4:59 pm
      Don't Call Me Shirley says:
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      …caused by Man-Bear-Pig!

      • September 11, 2013 at 9:23 am
        youngin' says:
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        Half man, half bear, half pig. Or is it half man, half bear-pig?

        • September 11, 2013 at 5:36 pm
          Don't Call Me Shirley says:
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          The answer lies somewhere in South Park…

    • September 11, 2013 at 9:35 am
      Agent says:
      Hot debate. What do you think?
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      Dave, do you remember them saying that the Polar Bears were an endangered species because of Global Warming and the ice cap melting? The population has only increased in recent years. These goofballs keep running their little theories/models and they have been thoroughly debunked, but they keep trying and the Progressives still want a carbon tax imposed on America. By the way, CO2 is good for plant life. They take it in and give off oxygen.

      • September 11, 2013 at 1:48 pm
        jw says:
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        Agent, I already gave you links to the polar bear research web site that clearly states the polar bear population is not increasing. Why do you continue to argue this point?

        • September 12, 2013 at 11:38 am
          Libby says:
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          That’s his MO, jw. You show him hard evidence that what he says is total bunk and he ignores it and continues spouting his rhetoric. That’s why he can not even be taken seriously. His mind is completely closed and he is not smart enough to take new evidence and revise his position. He’s a joke.

    • April 7, 2014 at 9:34 am
      Agent says:
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      Dave, are these the same scientists that can’t find a 777 after a month of looking?

  • September 10, 2013 at 10:21 pm
    bob barnett says:
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    IfIf you want to understand the climate extemes and contradictions from rising CO2 levels (droughts/flood, Cold/heat) visit the following:
    Timism.com GlobalDying
    YouTube.com/GlobalDying

    In 1982 I wrote an essay saying the most immediate impact of rising CO2 would be precipitation change due to CO2 liking water more than water likes itself–hydrophilia which is why we have soda pop, beer, etc.

    In early 2000′s, I wrote a series of essays under the heading “Hurricanes for dummies” which showed hurricanes will decrease in number but, proportionally, have more intense storms. Voila.

    The organic thesis of CO2 explains the difference between the 2012 and 2013 massive Rocky Mountain files. In 2012 the CO2 mass traveled over the Mid-west soaking up water and preventing upper level precipiation until saturation with a “soda bottle” shake over New England. In 2013, an unusual jet stream dip took the fire-sourced CO2 over the Gulf before looping up through the Southeast which had numerous, sudden downpours.

    My achievements and resume are listed on timism.com, at the bottom.

  • September 11, 2013 at 4:47 pm
    MeIsEinstein says:
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    I am going to invite these “forecasters” to forecast how much I will really spend on my home improvement project. Wait, on second thought, ah, never mind….

  • September 16, 2013 at 10:15 am
    Jack Allen says:
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    They bought the global warming lie!

  • September 16, 2013 at 10:54 am
    Randy says:
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    There are two kinds of forecasters: those who don’t know and those who don’t know they don’t know. Galbraith

  • September 18, 2013 at 12:53 pm
    No Doubt says:
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    I think that the scientists who study this are doing their level best. However, I think that we know so little about how weather works, much less how things like global warming might impact it(if its even true) that we do as well with multiple coin tosses in terms of estimating what is going to happen in a given storm season.

    • April 7, 2014 at 9:27 am
      Dave says:
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      Except of course the scientists on the payroll of the various climate change committees whose continued employment is based on their continuing to be climate change alarmists.

  • April 6, 2014 at 3:58 pm
    Steve says:
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    Don’t worry, it’s now 2014 and I’m sure the climate alarmists will once again make their annual prediction that will, once again, predict a year of high hurricane activity that will, once again, fail to meet expectations.



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