Florida Certifies Hurricane Model for the Tenth Consecutive Year

The Florida Commission on Hurricane Loss Projection Methodology has certified AIR Worldwide Corp.’s 2006 Hurricane Model. This marks the tenth consecutive year that AIR has met the rigorous standards of the Commission since the Commission’s inception in 1996, when AIR was the only modeler to be certified.

Legislative changes in Florida have allowed commission members unprecedented access to model assumptions, including trade secrets, for their review and inspection. This has led to a much greater degree of model transparency than in previous years.

“The Florida Commission recertified the AIR standard U.S. hurricane model, which has been providing the insurance industry with reliable estimates of hurricane risk since 1987,” David Lalonde, AIR senior vice president said. “AIR believes this model provides the most credible view of hurricane risk.”

In addition to the standard stochastic hurricane catalog approved by the commission, which is based on over 100 years of historical data and over 20 years of research and development, AIR will offer two alternative stochastic hurricane catalogs for the 2006 hurricane season: a near-term sensitivity catalog, which reflects recent research on the influence of SSTs on near-term (~5 year) hurricane activity and a 2006 seasonal hurricane catalog that accounts for the influence of current climate signals on hurricane activity for the upcoming season.

“Due to the considerable uncertainty surrounding projections of near-term hurricane activity, AIR encourages the use of its alternative catalogs for sensitivity analyses rather than as replacements for AIR’s standard U.S. hurricane model,” Lalonde concluded.

Source: AIR Worldwide Corp.

Topics Florida Catastrophe Natural Disasters Hurricane