Yes but you took the time and effort to read and comment. Statistics is the foundation of the business. A nice bit of information that you went out of your way to flame. You all fall in the catagory of “Some people are like Slinkies – not really good for anything, but you still can’t help but smile when you see one tumble down the stairs.”
Cal – Do you always attack people who express their opinions? I would think IJ has the “Comment” for those to make comments about the article, not about it’s readers. I read the article, like I said because I am a sports fan but I was expecting something in the article to be insurance related. Some people may find the article fascnating but it is not insurance newsworthy.
Heh, I just asked the same thing about the FAA story. RE this one, I disagree with “the professor.” If you have 2 teams that are both equally good, which in theory should be the case for the All Star game, then wouldn’t you expect it to be close and therefore likley to go into extra innings?
As the sole underwriter of Major League Baseball, probabilities of extra innings is something that we factor into our costs. The longer a player is out on the field, the higher the probability that he will incur an injury.
Now if they would only predict which tennis player is going to bash their racquet over their heads …
I want to know the statiscal probability of A-Rod actually sticking around for the entire game next year instead of going home after getting yanked in the 5th.
Whoa…guys! It just occured to me….this professor IS and actuarial….the more innings they play, the more likely the players are going to suffer a work-related injury….oh no!
there go the comp rates! No wait….aren’t they considered “independent contractors”?…well, disbilityrates just shot thru the roof….as far as A Rod is concerned, he will probably continue to get yanked since their insurance company cannot afford for him to be on the disabled list……Ok guys, now you see how relevant this story is to insurance????
I play on a stinky (office) softball team, and trust me… we don’t go to extra innings, we count on the mercy rule. I tend to lean towards the theory of the better you are the more likely you are to go extra innings.
I am not a sports fan, but I did find it interesting that the professors conducted a probability analysis. I happen to think this story is highly relevant to what we do as insurance professionals. In fact I believe that many of us are lacking in the area of assessing probabilities. I see this as an amusing way of broaching the subject.
The definition of a professor: Someone who expends unlimited amounts of training and knowledge to prove something that anyone in the real world would realize without a second thought.
Statisticians & economists spend all their time proving things that the rest of us already know.
The quality of the teams in no way has much bearing on extra innings, given that there is a reasonable match in the level of quality between the two. If the company softball team plays the Phillies, there’s virtually no chance of extra innings becasue of the clear difference in team quality. Two lousy teams (such as the Dodgers and Braves back in 1920) does not factor into this because lousy teams often have both lousy hitting (to keep the scoring down) and lousy pitching (to keep the scoring higher).
…………is that you Cliff Clavin ?
how is this story ij worthy??
Didn’t the ’86 All-Star game at Anaheim Stadium go also go 15 innings.
Apparently this guy is not a history professor!
Probably a slow news day for the IJ,
Acct Mgr.
Gee, professor, how will learning this help me in the “real world”?
I am a sports fan but what does this have to do with insurance???? I read the sports pages to learn about sports, not IJ
get this guy an actuarial job… then again, maybe not, since he did not predict the 15 inning game.
Yes but you took the time and effort to read and comment. Statistics is the foundation of the business. A nice bit of information that you went out of your way to flame. You all fall in the catagory of “Some people are like Slinkies – not really good for anything, but you still can’t help but smile when you see one tumble down the stairs.”
I only made it (awake) to the bottom of the 13th. How does that play into the equation?
Cal – Do you always attack people who express their opinions? I would think IJ has the “Comment” for those to make comments about the article, not about it’s readers. I read the article, like I said because I am a sports fan but I was expecting something in the article to be insurance related. Some people may find the article fascnating but it is not insurance newsworthy.
Darn – At first I thought he was predicting the chance of a major hurricane making landfall for the 2008 season.
Oh, wait. No, that would be the actual stats on the last few seasons.
You know… contrary to the ever so accurate results of our “new and improved” hurricane season modeling…
Heh, I just asked the same thing about the FAA story. RE this one, I disagree with “the professor.” If you have 2 teams that are both equally good, which in theory should be the case for the All Star game, then wouldn’t you expect it to be close and therefore likley to go into extra innings?
As the sole underwriter of Major League Baseball, probabilities of extra innings is something that we factor into our costs. The longer a player is out on the field, the higher the probability that he will incur an injury.
Now if they would only predict which tennis player is going to bash their racquet over their heads …
No, the professor is right. More likely to go into extra innings with stinky players and a score of 0-0.
With evenly matched good players, I would expect the score to “be close”, as you said. But “close” doesn’t guarantee extra innings, only “tied” does.
I want to know the statiscal probability of A-Rod actually sticking around for the entire game next year instead of going home after getting yanked in the 5th.
Whoa…guys! It just occured to me….this professor IS and actuarial….the more innings they play, the more likely the players are going to suffer a work-related injury….oh no!
there go the comp rates! No wait….aren’t they considered “independent contractors”?…well, disbilityrates just shot thru the roof….as far as A Rod is concerned, he will probably continue to get yanked since their insurance company cannot afford for him to be on the disabled list……Ok guys, now you see how relevant this story is to insurance????
I play on a stinky (office) softball team, and trust me… we don’t go to extra innings, we count on the mercy rule. I tend to lean towards the theory of the better you are the more likely you are to go extra innings.
The 1989 All Star Game in Anaheim was not the marathon affair, it was the game played there in the early 70s (late 60s?) that was the long one.
1989 was the one where Bo Jackson hit the monster shot… I was there! :-)
Subject: Baseball Math
Posted On: July 17, 2008, 12:28 pm CDT
Posted By: Acct Mgr
Comment:
how is this story ij worthy??
Indeed, it’s not about global warming, so why’s it in IJ?
I am not a sports fan, but I did find it interesting that the professors conducted a probability analysis. I happen to think this story is highly relevant to what we do as insurance professionals. In fact I believe that many of us are lacking in the area of assessing probabilities. I see this as an amusing way of broaching the subject.
Good for IJ
“To those who have ears let them hear!”
The definition of a professor: Someone who expends unlimited amounts of training and knowledge to prove something that anyone in the real world would realize without a second thought.
Statisticians & economists spend all their time proving things that the rest of us already know.
How many of you have a spouse who got sick of the game and either told you they had something else for you or to turn the damn TV off or else?
The quality of the teams in no way has much bearing on extra innings, given that there is a reasonable match in the level of quality between the two. If the company softball team plays the Phillies, there’s virtually no chance of extra innings becasue of the clear difference in team quality. Two lousy teams (such as the Dodgers and Braves back in 1920) does not factor into this because lousy teams often have both lousy hitting (to keep the scoring down) and lousy pitching (to keep the scoring higher).