With companies posting combined ratios above 100% and the loss of industry surplus, I have a hard time believing we’re in for a continuation of the soft market. Companies will need to run underwriting profit to attain a decent ROE. I’ll wager a cup of coffee with these folks that the market turns in 2009.
Also, the “brain drain” from baby boomer retirement is a popular subject, but how are most 401-k and pension plans looking these days? I am sure more than a few will end up working longer than expected due to the economic downturn.
THIS IDEA OF A “SOFT MARKET” HAS ALWAYS SLAYED ME, AND I THINK IT’S PART OF OUR PROBLEM. EACH COMPANY SHOULD PRICE THEIR PRODUCTS ACCORDING TO THEIR PROJECTED LOSSES AND EXPENSES, NOT WHAT THE COMPETION CHARGES! THESE “BAILOUTS” WON’T LAST FOREVER!
Mergers? Acquisitions? The 3 or 4 that I’ve been watching were supposed to happen already. Unfortunately, the failing market has actually taken pressure OFF of the performance of some of these carriers, as the focus has been on getting federal bail-out money. The stockholders will grow impatient in 2009, and there will be 2 significant mergers or acquisitions in 1st quarter. I see one or 2 Ohio regionals in play. I see an Iowa (1 or 2) regional going bye-bye. And there there is still one significant ‘national’ that could finally fall to the pressure of significant underperformance. Again, 2 of the above WILL happen in 1st quarter 2009. Just my prediction.
If this is news, I’m sure I’m fully qualified for one of them “think tank” jobs.
With companies posting combined ratios above 100% and the loss of industry surplus, I have a hard time believing we’re in for a continuation of the soft market. Companies will need to run underwriting profit to attain a decent ROE. I’ll wager a cup of coffee with these folks that the market turns in 2009.
Also, the “brain drain” from baby boomer retirement is a popular subject, but how are most 401-k and pension plans looking these days? I am sure more than a few will end up working longer than expected due to the economic downturn.
THIS IDEA OF A “SOFT MARKET” HAS ALWAYS SLAYED ME, AND I THINK IT’S PART OF OUR PROBLEM. EACH COMPANY SHOULD PRICE THEIR PRODUCTS ACCORDING TO THEIR PROJECTED LOSSES AND EXPENSES, NOT WHAT THE COMPETION CHARGES! THESE “BAILOUTS” WON’T LAST FOREVER!
Mergers? Acquisitions? The 3 or 4 that I’ve been watching were supposed to happen already. Unfortunately, the failing market has actually taken pressure OFF of the performance of some of these carriers, as the focus has been on getting federal bail-out money. The stockholders will grow impatient in 2009, and there will be 2 significant mergers or acquisitions in 1st quarter. I see one or 2 Ohio regionals in play. I see an Iowa (1 or 2) regional going bye-bye. And there there is still one significant ‘national’ that could finally fall to the pressure of significant underperformance. Again, 2 of the above WILL happen in 1st quarter 2009. Just my prediction.