P/C Insurers Expanding Use of Predictive Modeling

February 9, 2015

  • February 10, 2015 at 10:20 am
    Ron says:
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    I thought Agent had convinced these executives that their models are bad and they will be moving away from them. Uh-oh, Agent was wrong…again!

    • February 11, 2015 at 10:41 am
      Agent says:
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      When an actuary is wrong on “Predictive Modeling”, it usually costs a large company millions in premiums and lost customers. Ask Travelers how much it cost them in the past 5 years and how many agents book rolled their business to other carriers who have better models.

      • February 11, 2015 at 2:44 pm
        Ron says:
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        Agent,

        You are correct.

  • February 10, 2015 at 2:06 pm
    Agent says:
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    Always an insult and I haven’t even commented. Way to go Ron, NY insulter of the year. You should go back to being an actuary so you can tell everyone how smart you are.

    What some of my carriers have told me was their Predictive Modeling went too far on rate increases and are being scaled back. Some dufus actuary put too much into the black box to predict results and it succeeded in running business off.

    • February 10, 2015 at 2:47 pm
      Ron says:
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      Agent,

      They lied to you and you bought it. And you complain about President Obama. You are so gullible.

      Did you not notice the results reported in the article? Oh yeah, you don’t like data, statistics or facts. They tend to prove you wrong.

    • February 10, 2015 at 2:48 pm
      Ron says:
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      Agent,

      One other thing, I was never an actuary. I was a product manager who worked closely with the actuaries. Therefore I have a much deeper understanding of insurance rating than you.

      • February 10, 2015 at 3:36 pm
        Agent says:
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        Do you not know how to put your thoughts in a single post Ron? By working closely with actuaries, it apparently rubbed off on you since you talk like an actuary. They may have a deeper understanding of rating, but they have very little common sense, kind of like you. Believe this, some carriers have realized the errors of their ways in black box algorithms. The ones that are smart have gotten it right and don’t have wild fluctuations in rates.

        • February 10, 2015 at 4:19 pm
          Ron says:
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          Agent,

          Your idea of common sense leads to poor profitability, insolvency, and reduce competition. Insurance pricing has been, is currently, and will always be driven by data, period.

          Funny how I criticize you for a lack of facts, data and support for your arguments. You criticize me for spelling, grammar and multiple posts.

          You said, “Believe this, some carriers have realized the errors of their ways in black box algorithms. The ones that are smart have gotten it right and don’t have wild fluctuations in rates.” Have they abandoned predicitive modeling or just tweaked their algorithms?

          • February 12, 2015 at 11:10 am
            Agent says:
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            Obviously, the algorithms first proposed were seriously flawed which led to the fallout and re-tooling. Improper analysis of market conditions, exposure, cause all kinds of problems including loss of market share. By the time the company wakes up and calls the actuaries on the carpet for explanation, the damage has been already done.

            By the way, my flawed reasoning has led us to a record receipt of Contingency Income from our carriers for 2014. We must be doing something right. A few of our carriers are not doing well when they haven’t adjusted their algorithms so they aren’t writing new business or retaining existing customers.

          • February 12, 2015 at 11:16 am
            Ron says:
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            Agent,

            It is not your reasoning that has lead to your record contingency. It is the decisions of the companies with whom you write. They create the guidelines and set pricing, not you.

            It is also a result of the improved economy. Oh wait, you said President Obama killed the economy. Then how are record profits possible?

          • February 13, 2015 at 6:04 pm
            Agent says:
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            Ron, I am not saying it isn’t challenging trying to succeed under the new “Middle Class Economy” of Obama and all the things he does which is so detrimental to business and costs jobs including the new Employer Mandate which is just kicking off. Get ready, it is going to be a bumpy ride in the next two years. We are fortunate to represent enough markets that we can play musical chairs with customers & prospects so the Predictive modeling doesn’t slow us down that much.

          • February 16, 2015 at 8:30 am
            Ron says:
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            Agent,

            You have been preaching economic doom since President Obama was elected and it has not happened. Actually, it has been improving nearly every quarter since his first full year in office. When I point that out, you just tell me to wait, it will happen.

            Based on your posts, if I were to ask you if you are better off now than 6 years ago, you would have to say “Yes”.

  • February 10, 2015 at 3:10 pm
    Terry Boom says:
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    Predictive modeling getting bigger and bigger.
    Hope this finds you well.
    TE

  • February 10, 2015 at 5:12 pm
    John B says:
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    Kind of interesting that the company that did the “survey” is a firm that offers predictive modeling services.

    • February 11, 2015 at 2:31 pm
      Doubting Thomas says:
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      Yes, John B, you are wise. The author feeds himself in the article.

      Predictive Modeling is like flipping a three sided quarter.

    • February 13, 2015 at 4:39 pm
      Agent says:
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      Yes John, those Predictive Modelers stick together like fleas on a dog. They are right and everyone else is wrong. I just wonder why so many companies keep changing their models, sometimes twice a year when they do rate changes. I kind of think an actuary is behind all that.

  • February 11, 2015 at 8:37 am
    Richard G says:
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    Ron, your clueless. Finish your GED first then come back.

    • February 11, 2015 at 9:03 am
      Grammar Police says:
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      You insult Ron about his lack of intelligence and can’t use the right use of the word your/you’re. You fail

      • February 11, 2015 at 10:25 am
        T Dub says:
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        Uhh, Grammar Police, in Richard G’s post, he was correctly using the possessive “your.” Please leave the thinking to those that can. Class dismissed.

        • February 11, 2015 at 10:53 am
          Grammar Police says:
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          The correct use is you’re as in “Ron, you are clueless.” “Ron, your clueless” makes no sense because there are words missing like “Ron, your clueless child hit my car”

        • February 11, 2015 at 10:58 am
          Ron says:
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          T Dub,

          How do you possess clueless? He was trying to state, “you are clueless” and failed.

          Now class is dismissed.

    • February 11, 2015 at 9:23 am
      Ron says:
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      Richard G,

      Please clarify what motivated you to post your message.

      Even people with a GED know it is “you’re”, not “your” as the contraction of you are. Apparently you need to finish yours.

      • February 11, 2015 at 9:45 am
        Agent says:
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        Ron, people who live in a glass house should not cast stones. Many of your posts are not grammatical, mis-typed, misspelled and you don’t proof read before you hit the post button. Richard was correct that you need to finish your GED.

        • February 11, 2015 at 10:56 am
          Rosenblatt says:
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          Agent’s post already has 7 likes. Didn’t you agree you weren’t going to up-vote your own posts 7-8 times, and I wouldn’t downvote your posts in response? Did you forget this conversation??

          • February 11, 2015 at 12:42 pm
            Rosenblatt says:
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            Agent, are you ignoring my question? Has our “truce” (you don’t upvote your comments 7-8 times and I won’t downvote your posts in a similar manner) not even lasted a couple of days because you failed to uphold your end of the deal?

          • February 11, 2015 at 3:50 pm
            Libby says:
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            Rosenblatt – are you seriously expecting Agent to be honest and trustworthy and actually keep his part of the bargain? I, too, was naive at one time until I figured out he’s a liar and a welcher. Enough said.

          • February 11, 2015 at 7:57 pm
            Rosenblatt says:
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            I was hoping for it – still am, actually. It’s up to him now to prove you right or wrong.

          • February 18, 2015 at 3:11 pm
            Agent says:
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            Yes, Rosenblatt, when I pulled up the posts after I got back from an appointment, 6 of my comments had disappeared entirely. Do you think I am going to let that go without response? If not you, then the vindictive Libby who is totally out of control. She does the same thing with Bob and about anyone else with a Conservative comment she doesn’t like including the female posters. This is not a one way street dude.

          • February 18, 2015 at 3:19 pm
            Libby says:
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            No, Agent, not me. You truly are THAT hated on IJ! LOL!!!

        • February 11, 2015 at 11:02 am
          Ron says:
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          Agent,

          Yes, I do make spelling and grammatical errors, but I do not insult someone else’s education in the process.
          The only reason I pointed the error out is because he questioned my education.

          I never point out your grammatical or spelling errors, of which there are plenty.

          Since I never even started my GED, how can I finish it?

          • February 11, 2015 at 11:33 am
            Agent says:
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            I seem to remember you saying that you had College Loans and that is why you needed deductions so you wouldn’t have to pay Federal Income tax. Apparently, you didn’t do well in mandatory English classes and had to do remedial classes to advance.

            Based on your history of posts, I do think you were well indoctrinated in Progressive thought in school.

          • February 11, 2015 at 12:04 pm
            Ron says:
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            Agent,

            I did well enough in English to pass. However, unlike you, I excelled in all of my Economics courses. Since that was my major, I am far more proud of that accomplshment.

          • February 11, 2015 at 3:51 pm
            Libby says:
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            Agent – you have alot of nerve criticizing someone’s English grammar. You, who says “Us agents.” You’re a joke!

          • February 16, 2015 at 5:58 pm
            Agent says:
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            Ron, how did you get through college with your term papers with spelling and grammatical errors galore? Did you have a bunch of red circles around all those misspelled words? Did you squeak out a C- on your papers? I bet your English professor had a few raised eyebrows.

          • February 16, 2015 at 7:50 pm
            Ron says:
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            Agent,

            The fact that you think my typing of term papers were not done with more care than blog posts is further evidence of your ignorance.

            How did you get through your economics classes without providing data or statistical support for your positions, or citing your sources? How many of your professors accepted, “I read somewhere that…” as your source?

    • February 16, 2015 at 2:26 pm
      Agent says:
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      Richard, Ron graduated from the Obama School of Economics which proudly proclaimed – You didn’t do that! You didn’t build that!

      • February 16, 2015 at 3:08 pm
        Ron says:
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        Agent,

        Not that you are smart enough to understand context, but here is the COMPLETE quote:

        “If you were successful, somebody along the line gave you some help. There was a great teacher somewhere in your life. Somebody helped to create this unbelievable American system that we have that allowed you to thrive. Somebody invested in roads and bridges. If you’ve got a business — you didn’t build that. Somebody else made that happen. The Internet didn’t get invented on its own. Government research created the Internet so that all the companies could make money off the Internet.”

        http://www.factcheck.org/2012/07/you-didnt-build-that-uncut-and-unedited/

        • February 16, 2015 at 3:35 pm
          Agent says:
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          Ron, allow me to interpret for you so you don’t injure your brain figuring out what the serial liar is talking about. Somebody invested in bridges and roads = Taxes from the Federal Government. Anytime investments are mentioned, it is a tax burden they are levying on you, get it? Got a business, you didn’t build that! Henry Ford didn’t build Ford Motor Company, the government did. Bill Gates didn’t build Microsoft and Steve Jobs didn’t build Apple, the government did. Al Gore invented the internet, right? He also said we had Global Warming which is the biggest hoax of the century after Obamacare.

          • February 16, 2015 at 4:27 pm
            Ron says:
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            Agent,

            I understand how infrastructure is paid for. Investment in our country, especially roads, bridges, defense, and schools, is not a burden that I mind.

            How many private businesses would be willing to build roads, bridges, public schools, the internet, etc. then allow free access to the general public?

            The most basic comprehension tells you that he was stating that these businesspeople, who are happy to take advantage of the infrastructure, paid for by the government with tax dollars, that made America great, and their businesses successful, should be more grateful for what the government provides.

            If you honestly believe that Henry Ford, Bill Gates, or Steve Jobs would have been successful without the infrastruture that THEY DID NOT BUILD you are a completely naive idiot.

  • February 12, 2015 at 9:58 am
    Agent says:
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    Yes, Ron I am sure you excelled in the Paul Krugman school of Economics which believes that massive government spending is the way to cure the economy of all ills. Obama has overspent by $8 Trillion of the total $18 Trillion in debt with no end in sight so he can redistribute the wealth ad nauseum and give it to you so you won’t have to pay Federal Income tax. No wonder you and Libby think he is so wonderful. That theory is “bankrupt” literally and figuratively.

    • February 12, 2015 at 10:10 am
      Rosenblatt says:
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      Agent, has our “truce” ended or what? If you don’t upvote all your comments, I won’t downvote them to counter-act your fake likes. Are you still willing to NOT upvote all your posts so I don’t downvote them in response?

      • February 19, 2015 at 12:43 pm
        Agent says:
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        Did you upvote yourself 12 times Rosenblatt or did you have help from Libby?

    • February 12, 2015 at 11:48 am
      Libby says:
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      “…so he can redistribute the wealth ad nauseum and give it to you so you won’t have to pay Federal Income tax. No wonder you and Libby think he is so wonderful.”

      Agent, how many times do I have to tell you that I have only received a refund ONCE in the past 15-20 years? I paid MORE in income taxes than you do, since I had no children to write off. In fact, I paid to send your kids to school and for them to play in the parks, etc. You should be thanking me instead of insulting me all the time.

      • February 13, 2015 at 4:34 pm
        Agent says:
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        Libby, have you hacked into my IRS account now? I pay more in quarterlies than you have paid in 5 years.

        • February 13, 2015 at 4:40 pm
          Libby says:
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          Maybe in dollars you have because you make/steal more than I do. But percentage wise I pay more because I’m in a higher tax bracket. And I’m not talking about your corporate taxes, but your personal income taxes.

          • February 13, 2015 at 5:57 pm
            Agent says:
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            Libby, my tax bracket dwarfs yours. How dare you call me a thief, you liberal witch? I have more integrity in my little finger than you do in your whole body. Go total out some poor suckers car, will you?

          • February 17, 2015 at 12:42 pm
            Libby says:
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            I seriously doubt it did at one time, Agent. I was in your income level with no children to deduct. I paid more. I don’t care if you want to believe it or not. Your small business may pay more, but you did not as an individual.

  • February 13, 2015 at 1:12 pm
    Adult says:
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    Yet another ‘discussion’ killed before it began by a handful of people and a petty ongoing argument. Not sure why I continue reading the comment section of any online article looking for useful information from people with firsthand knowledge of the subject matter.

    • February 17, 2015 at 12:58 pm
      Agent says:
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      Libby, you seriously doubt wrong as usual. On your CSR/Claims Manager income, you would be much less than half of what I pay in Individual taxes. Ask your boss how much he has to pay on your behalf on taxes if you can tear yourself away from your nasty insults on this blog.

      • February 17, 2015 at 2:20 pm
        Libby says:
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        What does how much my boss pays for me in payroll tax have to do with what you and I pay individually? I may make a Claims Manager salary now, but I was making 6 figures as an Account Executive in my prior life. I’m sure I’d place my salary close to what yours is in Backwater, Texas. That is unless you’re robbing from your employees in order to give yourself a big, fat salary that you don’t deserve. You said you entire agency is only $500,000 in revenue, so you can’t be pulling down that much. As I stated before, my book of business was larger than your entire agency ($1.2M v. $500k). Just a fact. Jack.

        • February 17, 2015 at 5:19 pm
          Agent says:
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          Not so factual Jack. You may have me confused with FFA. We passed the $500,000 revenue back in the 90’s and have only added to it more. My contingency income personally is more than you make on salary and that is dividing it among my partners. So you had that six figure salary when you were let go in Colorado. If your boss is paying you anything close to that currently, he is not getting much bang for his buck with you relentlessly posting insults on this forum 24/7.

          • February 18, 2015 at 10:09 am
            Libby says:
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            How boss-like of you to take the entire contingency and split it amongst your partners. So much for rewarding the efforts of your worker bees whose hard work got you that bonus.

            You don’t deserve it. You spend as much, if not more, time on here than I do. You can’t be selling much, if anything at all.

            And even if you doubled your agency since the 90’s (doubtful), my book was still bigger than your entire agency. Considering a 20% return is almost unheard of in the business, that means you pull down $200,000 plus contingent. And that has to be split between you and your partners. Hardly in the 1% category. In fact, I’d call that chump change for an agency principal.

          • February 18, 2015 at 3:02 pm
            Agent says:
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            Libby, are you jealous that your boss/owner didn’t split his contingency with you? We are the owners, the risk takers and our butt is on the line every day of the week. You are lucky to have a CSR job, especially up there in Pa where the Progressive economy is bad.

          • February 18, 2015 at 3:16 pm
            Libby says:
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            No, I’m not jealous Agent. I just feel sorry for your “girls.” Too bad they have to suffer such a greedy fool for a boss, but then again pickins are probably pretty slim in Bumf*ck, Texas.

            Enjoy your bonus. Don’t spend it all in one place!

          • February 18, 2015 at 3:47 pm
            Libby says:
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            Maybe you could spend it at the Church Social or the swap meet.

          • February 19, 2015 at 12:41 pm
            Agent says:
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            Actually Libby, we use our contingency to help us pay the outrageous taxes Obama imposes on us. As I said, our quarterlies exceed your total annual income. Too bad your owner/boss didn’t share his with you.

            By the way, my CSR’s are handsomely remunerated and bonused in other ways and they can make commission on business they develop on their own. Not one complaint from them for as long as we have been in business. They also don’t play on the internet all day blogging like you do.

  • February 17, 2015 at 2:34 pm
    The Man says:
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    You people are all a bunch of cry baby elementary school children. Go back to playing in the sandbox and eating your boogers. Seriously, I thought this was a Professional publication…

    • February 17, 2015 at 3:33 pm
      Libby says:
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      Huh? Who’s crying here besides Agent?



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