There are two obvious factors that may explain the increased rate of fatalities per 100,000 miles driven, roadway traffic congestion and driver behavior. There are other factors, such as the weather /atmospheric conditions that would seem to be similar over two identical time periods, year over year. But, weather changes may occur over two years; e.g. storms; snow and rain.
It is difficult to assess differences in driver skills during the current lockdowns versus one year prior. But, assumptions might be made regarding truckers continuing to drive as they have last year, perhaps more miles, and students driving much less than last year. What might be done with those metrics at this point should be applied state by state because of the distinct lockdown provisions in different states. That will provide more homogeneous division of the raw national data.
Fortunately, the metrics provided by Mr. Simpson are broken down by state to enable that analysis. But individual state details may be too finely subdivided to provide meaningful statistical analysis. So I suggest groupings of states according to three categories; lax lockdown rules, moderate lockdown rules, and rigid lockdown rules.
One remaining issue is interstate travel by truckers. But that may not be an impediment to understanding the true, meaningful trend involved; i.e. more deaths per 100,000 miles driven. The argument for retaining lockdowns indefinitely would use the raw rate of deaths, by month, year over year. The obvious flaw in that argument is the long-term effects on the health of home-bound workers and the economic measures that reflect quality of life.
“What might be done with those metrics at this point should be applied state by state because of the distinct lockdown provisions in different states. That will provide more homogeneous division of the raw national data.
Fortunately, the metrics provided by Mr. Simpson are broken down by state to enable that analysis. But individual state details may be too finely subdivided to provide meaningful statistical analysis.”
If I follow this logic, you want the metrics to be applied state by state, and Mr. Simpson did that to enable the analysis you seek, but now you think the state-by-state details are too finely subdivided?
Are YOU going to list all 50 states and group them into your 3 categories (lax lockdown rules, moderate lockdown rules, and rigid lockdown rules) then combine the data from each category so you can do your analysis and report back to the class what you found?
Yes, I am going to group the states according to criteria I selected. No, I am not going to publish my work product here; it will be sent to a specific member of Congress. I don’t work for trolls.
He’s going to send it to a specific member of Congress. I bet it’s the same person holding on to that bill that can’t be released because of copyright issues….
We can all send things to specific members of congress, Yogi. You can save yourself some time and postage by simply placing it in your own recycle bin, though.
May 21, 2020 at 8:28 am
Vox says:
Like or Dislike:
7
0
I am at a loss to explain state-to-state differences. I find no easily correlation. Be that as it may, when the road is less crowded, I tend to push the pedal down. Don’t most people do that? Traffic slows you down and lack of traffic does the opposite. Nothing to soothe the soul like an nearly empty interstate!
I spoke with an insured this week about traffic on the turnpike. She said there weren’t that may cars, and those around her were flying – doing 75+ in a 65 zone. No cops around.
Based on some news reports and observations there has been a spike in reckless driving speeds which is enabled by open roads and highways and perceived lack of enforcement. However the state and local police have taken notice in some areas and issuing citations as appropriate. A high percentage of highway violations are for speeds in excess of 100 MPH, which is worrisome for sure.
Perhaps some of those on the road are the ones who really should have been sheltering in place. You might define said individuals as reckless people. Maybe the prudent are home and the foolhardy and the macho men are still out there on the roads.
If you were statistically trained and observant, you would have noticed two of the smallest states had the two largest variances from no change; i.e. Connecticut was +42% and Hawaii was -32%. That strongly suggests the size of the fatality numbers is small for small states (duh!) …. but also relatively small for larger states. In turn, the changes for individual states have little predictive power for use in decision/ policy making… hence my suggestion to group them into 3 groups. But, I am open to using quintile groups, as have been used in Black-Scholes analyses in lieu of CAPM analyses that lacked credibility for individual stock analyses and forecasts.
The reason I now am suggesting 5 groupings instead of 3 is a discussion with someone who suggested the roadways and urban / rural mix of roads within a state may also contribute to differences between the states. So, the groupings would reflect both political mandates by governors and / or legislators as well as roadway characteristics.
Empirically noticed major reduction quantity in small auto collision and property damage activity during last 3 months. Major rise in comprehensive claims related to “stolen” vehicle activity by “sheltered in community” youth.
1) Blaming the youths for suspicious thefts is based on … what exactly? What’s the demographic breakdown of recently reported stolen cars? If you can’t answer that, maybe don’t blame a group of people for something you can’t prove is their fault?
2) Sounds like you need better SIU training for your adjusters and a better SIU department.
Why are you asking me to disprove Doug’s baseless attack on an entire generation? He made the claim, the onus is on him to prove his argument.
That said, I only have data for my company and reported thefts in the last 3 months tracks with our book’s historical age splits on theft claims.
And now we’re back to my first question again. Since you chimed in, can you share what your book or your carrier(s) data shows on what ages have been filing theft claims recently compared to the past?
Rosen – Because this is what Doug said. ” Major rise in comprehensive claims related to “stolen” vehicle activity by “sheltered in community” youth.
You said something different. “Blaming the youths for suspicious thefts is based on … what exactly?”
You prove your point. Does your report reflect the age of the person that stole the car? What age do your reports assign to the unresolved theft claims?
May 21, 2020 at 3:37 pm
Rosenblatt says:
Like or Dislike:
5
7
Jack – when I read “stolen” vehicle activity I took it as Doug saying the vehicles weren’t actually stolen, but was due to fraud. Why put stolen in quotes if you’re not saying it facetiously? That’s also why my second comment was about SIU activities.
Doug – were you implying the vehicles were not actually stolen and fraud is being committed by youthful policyholders, or did you literally mean kids were stealing more cars now?
If the latter, why did you put stolen in quotes? If the former, “thanks” for joining the conversation Jack!
May 28, 2020 at 7:15 pm
DOUG SPENCER says:
Like or Dislike:
0
0
The client with 2 stolen vehicles ignored active video surveillance and inside dog that alerted them during robbery. Youth took keys from garage and entered and stole vehicles.
Car that was originally reported stolen was actually “lost”, young adult registered owner refused to file formal police report after initial call (able to “find” in nearby apartment complex promptly).
I live in San Diego and right when the lockdown went into place I saw cars driving crazy. People shooting off the on-ramp immediately into fast land and barreling down the road. Cars racing each other in the middle of the afternoon. Cars zig-zagging around each other with no concern for safety. It’s just crazy here.
Now all those carriers that refunded “billions” , which equated to about $25 a household, will raise your rates to pay for liability claims cost. Bet they won’t blabber that one across every TV channel they can find.
Any analysis of accidents involving only OTR drivers? They are now allowed to drive longer without rest. In Illinois there seem to be a number of OTR driver accidents involving only 1 truck or only several trucks.
Shame on the auto insurers who got caught up in the “emotional” toll of the chinese wuhan virus and outdoing each other to provide rebates — thinking that driving behavior or mentality would change. If frequency does not get you, severity will!
Oh, it’s one of them. He still uses Common Sense, too. You know what Jon? You know what I heard and some people are retweeting? That you can prevent deadly car crashes by taking hydroxychloroquine and injecting disinfectant. You can just go to any doctor and tell them you want it and then you start taking it. Deadly car accidents be darned!
You want to know what else is up 14%? The amount of times I hear a pro-lifer tell me some people are just going to have to die of this virus. Oh, and also the number of times I’ve been told I can’t carry my rocket launcher into Menards.
Oh, c’mon Yogi. Zygotes can’t even walk or talk. All they do is swim all day and feed like a parasite from their mothers. But a 75 year old has had experiences. Has made connections. Has loved. If having voted for Tramp, have hated. Accomplished goals, is a spouse, perhaps grandparent, accumulated various forms of wealth. A zygote? What has it done? How has it contributed to society? You are totally a pro-choicer now. Face it. You are okay with humans dying. (end sarcasm but only about the zygotes – I would never consider abortion, either)
Lol 75+ years longer unless they get coronavirus because of re-opening, then it’s fine for them to die younger? You didn’t just ignore the hypocrisy, you swerved into it LOL
Not to mention, some kids are getting this and dying, too. It’s not just 75+ year olds, Yogi. Why don’t conservatives understand that? Could it be you are only listening to Faux Newz? Plus, isn’t it counter-intuitive of you to be parading the Tramp supporters back out into crowds where the virus is still flourishing? The Midwest is continuing to see the number of cases escalate. States like Florida were caught trying to falsify their numbers to make it seem safer than it actually is. I just learned of another death form this virus that hits close to home. It’s a serious matter and if you don’t care about a human life at any age, you are most definitely not a pro-lifer. I, on the other hand, would never consider an abortion. I am more pro-life than you are and still feel a woman should be allowed to make decisions about her uterus. You get to make decisions on your reproductive organs without someone impeding on your freedom to take blue pills.
You neglect to provide context and given your behavior I’m apt to think you are not representing what they said correctly.
As in, I have said similarly, people are going to die no matter what, this virus cannot be stopped.
That is not saying people are just going to have to die, the way you are implying it at least, and you are deliberately making that distinction, to act as if what they are saying means they are willing to sacrifice life if it is otherwise unavoidable, which you believe it is avoidable (it isn’t) and they do not believe it is (ergo why they say that people are going to die no matter what)
They are not morally culpable in the terms of “wanting death” if they do not believe it can be averted. Your phrase is deliberately playing on words to dehumanize their beliefs, and their core humanity, literally, as in they just want people to die.
This is not appropriate, it is never ok to put it as a method of debate, and you are reprehensible for doing so.
Saying swear words during debate is just life, people swear, people say somewhat bad words, this here is far worse than any of that. This is simply bad behavior in the worst sense, which anyone who is mature and wise would spot off the bat. How dare you.
” to act as if what they are saying means they are willing to sacrifice life as if it is otherwise avoidable”
Poor wording, excellent concept. It’s my engineering side.
I am constantly amazed at the shallow thought you guys put into the other side. Pro lifers don’t want life, they want people to die, so they contradict their values! AH HA! You try to have these phrases you can throw at people to demean their core values, and proclaim them hypocrites.
In retrospect I just realized what is going on…
ODD, and narcissism. ODD meets this to a T and I don’t want to take the time to explain it.
Defy those hypocrites and authority figures and supposed truths Planet. Prove those folks hypocrites, those folks who just can’t be trusted to think for themselves.
There are two obvious factors that may explain the increased rate of fatalities per 100,000 miles driven, roadway traffic congestion and driver behavior. There are other factors, such as the weather /atmospheric conditions that would seem to be similar over two identical time periods, year over year. But, weather changes may occur over two years; e.g. storms; snow and rain.
It is difficult to assess differences in driver skills during the current lockdowns versus one year prior. But, assumptions might be made regarding truckers continuing to drive as they have last year, perhaps more miles, and students driving much less than last year. What might be done with those metrics at this point should be applied state by state because of the distinct lockdown provisions in different states. That will provide more homogeneous division of the raw national data.
Fortunately, the metrics provided by Mr. Simpson are broken down by state to enable that analysis. But individual state details may be too finely subdivided to provide meaningful statistical analysis. So I suggest groupings of states according to three categories; lax lockdown rules, moderate lockdown rules, and rigid lockdown rules.
One remaining issue is interstate travel by truckers. But that may not be an impediment to understanding the true, meaningful trend involved; i.e. more deaths per 100,000 miles driven. The argument for retaining lockdowns indefinitely would use the raw rate of deaths, by month, year over year. The obvious flaw in that argument is the long-term effects on the health of home-bound workers and the economic measures that reflect quality of life.
“What might be done with those metrics at this point should be applied state by state because of the distinct lockdown provisions in different states. That will provide more homogeneous division of the raw national data.
Fortunately, the metrics provided by Mr. Simpson are broken down by state to enable that analysis. But individual state details may be too finely subdivided to provide meaningful statistical analysis.”
If I follow this logic, you want the metrics to be applied state by state, and Mr. Simpson did that to enable the analysis you seek, but now you think the state-by-state details are too finely subdivided?
Are YOU going to list all 50 states and group them into your 3 categories (lax lockdown rules, moderate lockdown rules, and rigid lockdown rules) then combine the data from each category so you can do your analysis and report back to the class what you found?
Yes, I am going to group the states according to criteria I selected. No, I am not going to publish my work product here; it will be sent to a specific member of Congress. I don’t work for trolls.
He’s going to send it to a specific member of Congress. I bet it’s the same person holding on to that bill that can’t be released because of copyright issues….
We can all send things to specific members of congress, Yogi. You can save yourself some time and postage by simply placing it in your own recycle bin, though.
I am at a loss to explain state-to-state differences. I find no easily correlation. Be that as it may, when the road is less crowded, I tend to push the pedal down. Don’t most people do that? Traffic slows you down and lack of traffic does the opposite. Nothing to soothe the soul like an nearly empty interstate!
I spoke with an insured this week about traffic on the turnpike. She said there weren’t that may cars, and those around her were flying – doing 75+ in a 65 zone. No cops around.
Based on some news reports and observations there has been a spike in reckless driving speeds which is enabled by open roads and highways and perceived lack of enforcement. However the state and local police have taken notice in some areas and issuing citations as appropriate. A high percentage of highway violations are for speeds in excess of 100 MPH, which is worrisome for sure.
Perhaps some of those on the road are the ones who really should have been sheltering in place. You might define said individuals as reckless people. Maybe the prudent are home and the foolhardy and the macho men are still out there on the roads.
If you were statistically trained and observant, you would have noticed two of the smallest states had the two largest variances from no change; i.e. Connecticut was +42% and Hawaii was -32%. That strongly suggests the size of the fatality numbers is small for small states (duh!) …. but also relatively small for larger states. In turn, the changes for individual states have little predictive power for use in decision/ policy making… hence my suggestion to group them into 3 groups. But, I am open to using quintile groups, as have been used in Black-Scholes analyses in lieu of CAPM analyses that lacked credibility for individual stock analyses and forecasts.
The reason I now am suggesting 5 groupings instead of 3 is a discussion with someone who suggested the roadways and urban / rural mix of roads within a state may also contribute to differences between the states. So, the groupings would reflect both political mandates by governors and / or legislators as well as roadway characteristics.
Empirically noticed major reduction quantity in small auto collision and property damage activity during last 3 months. Major rise in comprehensive claims related to “stolen” vehicle activity by “sheltered in community” youth.
1) Blaming the youths for suspicious thefts is based on … what exactly? What’s the demographic breakdown of recently reported stolen cars? If you can’t answer that, maybe don’t blame a group of people for something you can’t prove is their fault?
2) Sounds like you need better SIU training for your adjusters and a better SIU department.
Rosen- maybe you look up the data so you will believe it when you read it. Post the link for us after you do your own research.
Why are you asking me to disprove Doug’s baseless attack on an entire generation? He made the claim, the onus is on him to prove his argument.
That said, I only have data for my company and reported thefts in the last 3 months tracks with our book’s historical age splits on theft claims.
And now we’re back to my first question again. Since you chimed in, can you share what your book or your carrier(s) data shows on what ages have been filing theft claims recently compared to the past?
Rosen – Because this is what Doug said. ” Major rise in comprehensive claims related to “stolen” vehicle activity by “sheltered in community” youth.
You said something different. “Blaming the youths for suspicious thefts is based on … what exactly?”
You prove your point. Does your report reflect the age of the person that stole the car? What age do your reports assign to the unresolved theft claims?
Jack – when I read “stolen” vehicle activity I took it as Doug saying the vehicles weren’t actually stolen, but was due to fraud. Why put stolen in quotes if you’re not saying it facetiously? That’s also why my second comment was about SIU activities.
Doug – were you implying the vehicles were not actually stolen and fraud is being committed by youthful policyholders, or did you literally mean kids were stealing more cars now?
If the latter, why did you put stolen in quotes? If the former, “thanks” for joining the conversation Jack!
The client with 2 stolen vehicles ignored active video surveillance and inside dog that alerted them during robbery. Youth took keys from garage and entered and stole vehicles.
Car that was originally reported stolen was actually “lost”, young adult registered owner refused to file formal police report after initial call (able to “find” in nearby apartment complex promptly).
I live in San Diego and right when the lockdown went into place I saw cars driving crazy. People shooting off the on-ramp immediately into fast land and barreling down the road. Cars racing each other in the middle of the afternoon. Cars zig-zagging around each other with no concern for safety. It’s just crazy here.
Now all those carriers that refunded “billions” , which equated to about $25 a household, will raise your rates to pay for liability claims cost. Bet they won’t blabber that one across every TV channel they can find.
There has been a sharp rise in purchases of alcohol nationwide since the lock down. I am sure that is part of the issue here too.
Any analysis of accidents involving only OTR drivers? They are now allowed to drive longer without rest. In Illinois there seem to be a number of OTR driver accidents involving only 1 truck or only several trucks.
The 5G towers are causing deadlier accidents and the Coronavirus. It’s part of the New World Order and the War Against Baskin Robbins.
Shame on the auto insurers who got caught up in the “emotional” toll of the chinese wuhan virus and outdoing each other to provide rebates — thinking that driving behavior or mentality would change. If frequency does not get you, severity will!
Stupid is as stupid does . . . .
So this is definitely Agent’s new monicker, right?
Oh, it’s one of them. He still uses Common Sense, too. You know what Jon? You know what I heard and some people are retweeting? That you can prevent deadly car crashes by taking hydroxychloroquine and injecting disinfectant. You can just go to any doctor and tell them you want it and then you start taking it. Deadly car accidents be darned!
i don’t think so…too many multi-syllabic words for Agent, also no praise for our “great president.”
You want to know what else is up 14%? The amount of times I hear a pro-lifer tell me some people are just going to have to die of this virus. Oh, and also the number of times I’ve been told I can’t carry my rocket launcher into Menards.
Oh, c’mon Yogi. Zygotes can’t even walk or talk. All they do is swim all day and feed like a parasite from their mothers. But a 75 year old has had experiences. Has made connections. Has loved. If having voted for Tramp, have hated. Accomplished goals, is a spouse, perhaps grandparent, accumulated various forms of wealth. A zygote? What has it done? How has it contributed to society? You are totally a pro-choicer now. Face it. You are okay with humans dying. (end sarcasm but only about the zygotes – I would never consider abortion, either)
Lol 75+ years longer unless they get coronavirus because of re-opening, then it’s fine for them to die younger? You didn’t just ignore the hypocrisy, you swerved into it LOL
Not to mention, some kids are getting this and dying, too. It’s not just 75+ year olds, Yogi. Why don’t conservatives understand that? Could it be you are only listening to Faux Newz? Plus, isn’t it counter-intuitive of you to be parading the Tramp supporters back out into crowds where the virus is still flourishing? The Midwest is continuing to see the number of cases escalate. States like Florida were caught trying to falsify their numbers to make it seem safer than it actually is. I just learned of another death form this virus that hits close to home. It’s a serious matter and if you don’t care about a human life at any age, you are most definitely not a pro-lifer. I, on the other hand, would never consider an abortion. I am more pro-life than you are and still feel a woman should be allowed to make decisions about her uterus. You get to make decisions on your reproductive organs without someone impeding on your freedom to take blue pills.
You neglect to provide context and given your behavior I’m apt to think you are not representing what they said correctly.
As in, I have said similarly, people are going to die no matter what, this virus cannot be stopped.
That is not saying people are just going to have to die, the way you are implying it at least, and you are deliberately making that distinction, to act as if what they are saying means they are willing to sacrifice life if it is otherwise unavoidable, which you believe it is avoidable (it isn’t) and they do not believe it is (ergo why they say that people are going to die no matter what)
They are not morally culpable in the terms of “wanting death” if they do not believe it can be averted. Your phrase is deliberately playing on words to dehumanize their beliefs, and their core humanity, literally, as in they just want people to die.
This is not appropriate, it is never ok to put it as a method of debate, and you are reprehensible for doing so.
Saying swear words during debate is just life, people swear, people say somewhat bad words, this here is far worse than any of that. This is simply bad behavior in the worst sense, which anyone who is mature and wise would spot off the bat. How dare you.
” to act as if what they are saying means they are willing to sacrifice life as if it is otherwise avoidable”
Poor wording, excellent concept. It’s my engineering side.
I am constantly amazed at the shallow thought you guys put into the other side. Pro lifers don’t want life, they want people to die, so they contradict their values! AH HA! You try to have these phrases you can throw at people to demean their core values, and proclaim them hypocrites.
In retrospect I just realized what is going on…
ODD, and narcissism. ODD meets this to a T and I don’t want to take the time to explain it.
Defy those hypocrites and authority figures and supposed truths Planet. Prove those folks hypocrites, those folks who just can’t be trusted to think for themselves.