Index of Optimism Brighter in Norcal

Things must look brighter around the San Francisco Bay. People there tend to have a more positive outlook on the economy than folks in the bay areas of Los Angeles and San Diego.

That’s according to a recent Citibank survey from the fourth quarter of 2011, which shows that nearly half of Californians believe 2012 will be better than 2011.

According to the quarterly survey, 33 percent of respondents expect this year to be about the same as last year, and 17 percent say it will be worse.

“Looking ahead 12 months, 66 percent of Californians say their personal financial situation will be better, 52 percent say the California economy will improve, and 51 percent say job opportunities will brighten,” according to the authors of the survey.

However, the survey, which uses an “index of optimism,” shows that index is still pretty low. It rose to a -4 in the fourth quarter of 2011 from -7 in the third quarter. At 0, the index would be at the middle point of possible scores, which range from +100 to -100.

The survey also shows that 64 percent of respondents are still worried about another recession.
It’s the optimism index that reveals where Northern Californians have the better of their southern counterparts – though, depending on how you personally feel about the economy, that can be viewed as the other way around.

The survey again found that in Northern California, particularly in the San Francisco Bay area, residents are more optimistic than the rest of the state. San Francisco rated a +11 on the index.
Los Angeles was a -6, and San Diego came in at a -4. The total for all other counties in the state was -5.

More than seven in 10 San Francisco Bay area respondents believe their financial situation will be better in 12 months, compared with 62 percent in San Diego and 61 percent in Los Angeles. And 62 percent of San Francisco Bay area respondents said they expect job opportunities will improve in the next 12 months, while 50 percent of Los Angeles respondents and 47 percent of San Diego respondents felt that way.

The survey asks 12 questions and calculates its optimism index by subtracting negative responses to each from the positive responses. The quarterly poll was conducted last year via telephone with 1,480 residents from Dec. 16 to Dec. 22.

Questions included: “How would you rate the condition of the national economy these days? Is it excellent, good, only fair, or poor?” and “How would you rate employment opportunities for people like yourself who may be looking for work in California? Do you think that job opportunities are excellent, good, only fair or poor?”

Topics California