Taiwan told schools and offices along its eastern coast to close early Thursday as Typhoon Nepartak threatens to unleash strong winds and heavy rain across the island through Friday. Airlines canceled or rerouted flights in and out of Taiwan.
The first typhoon to form in the northwest Pacific Ocean this year recorded sustained winds of 198 kilometers an hour (123 miles per hour) gusting to 245 kilometers an hour, the Central Weather Bureau said. As of 4:15 p.m., the storm was 300 kilometers off the coast of eastern Taiwan’s Hualien. Wind and rain is expected across the whole island tonight and Friday, the agency said.
Schools and government offices in Hualien and Taitung were closed from 4 p.m. today, the Directorate-General of Personnel Administration said in a statement posted on its website. The capital city of Taipei said it would announce any Friday closures before 10 p.m. local time. Financial markets won’t be open if Taipei offices are closed, the Taiwan Stock Exchange and Taipei Exchange said.
Strong winds are likely to lash the island in the early morning of July 8, Wu Wan-hua of the Central Weather Bureau said in a broadcast shown on cable news channels.
Cathay Pacific Airways Ltd. canceled or rerouted 41 Taiwan flights scheduled on Thursday and Friday. Taiwan’s largest carrier China Airlines Ltd. canceled flights into or out of southern Taiwan’s Kaohsiung between 7 p.m. Thursday and before 2 p.m. Friday. High speed rail service will be suspended Friday until 5 p.m.
In China, the meteorological administration forecast Nepartak to make landfall on the coast of Fujian province Saturday morning.
–With assistance from Miaojung Lin.
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[Editor’s note: According to catastrophe modeling firm AIR Worldwide, Typhoon Nepartak is the first named storm in the western North Pacific basin since mid-December 2015, setting a new record for the longest period (200 days) without a tropical storm in the basin in 66 years.
“Nepartak is forecast to continue intensification, potentially reaching the equivalent of a Category 5 hurricane,” said Christopher Bednarczyk, scientist at AIR Worldwide, in a statement issued on July 6.
“However, it is moving into an environment with cooler ocean temperatures than its current location, which is projected to contribute to weakening prior to landfall,” he said.
“Nepartak is projected to bring torrential rains to Taiwan, with 100 mm [4 inches] of rainfall anticipated. Significant storm surge is also projected, as waves of up to 13 meters [43 feet] have already been reported at sea,” he continued.
Inland penetration will be mitigated by the steep elevation along the island’s east coast, although flooding, landslides, wind-borne debris, coastal flooding, and damage or interruption to infrastructure (power, transportation systems etc.) can be expected, AIR Worldwide said.
Movement over the mountainous terrain of Taiwan will weaken the storm before it has a chance to turn northward and make a potential second landfall in eastern China on Saturday, AIR said, noting that there still exists considerable uncertainty about the possible impact to China.
Typhoon Activity in Northwest Pacific
Bednarczyk said the Northwest Pacific Basin produces more tropical cyclones than anywhere else in the world. “On average, this basin spawns 29 tropical cyclones each year – 20 of which reach typhoon status. This high frequency can be primarily attributed to the extremely large expanse of very warm water in the basin.”
In Southeast Asia (i.e., Guam, Hong Kong, Macau, the Philippines, Saipan, Taiwan and Vietnam), Taiwan experiences the third-highest number of landfalling tropical cyclones, or two per year on average, after the Philippines, which ranks first, and Vietnam, which ranks second, he explained.
According to AIR, while high winds typically cause the most tropical cyclone damage in other parts of the world, rain-induced flooding often causes the most damage in the Northwest Pacific Basin.
Property Damage
Property damage in Taiwan is generally distributed equally between wind and flood, but storm surge also contributes to damage, AIR said. “Storm surge is significant in the west coast of Taiwan, and could heavily affect Taipei area and Kaohsiung area through Tamsui River and Love River. The deep bathymetry of the east coast minimizes storm surge risk on that side of the island.”
Strictly enforced building codes throughout the nation have resulted in structures with generally good wind resistance, AIR said, noting that residential insurance take-up rates in Taiwan are low and commercial take-up rates vary.
The population of Taiwan’s eastern coast — the region most vulnerable to flood — is quite high, which increases “the risk of loss of life and destruction of property,” the modeling company said. “Industry impacts will depend on the direction and intensity of Hurricane Nepartak at landfall, as well as duration post-landfall.”
Source: AIR Worldwide
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