I think the PwC estimate cited in the article is more accurate than the 60% shrinkage projected by KPMG. I am skeptical of how rapid they think autonomous vehicles will be adopted. Two reasons – 1) wage increase doesn’t see like it will keep up with the cost increase of an autonomous vehicle. The technology needs to become more affordable for it to become mainstream. 2) People like to drive! That is changing, I know, but many people have no interest in letting the car drive by itself.
CL, you are right about the affordability factor and the fact that the middle class has been declining for at least 7 years will make the technology out of the reach of most Americans. I have a customer that bought one of those Tesla sports cars (All electric) and he gave right at $100,000 for it. I can only imagine how much these autonomous vehicles will cost in the future.
As time goes on, the price of the tech will drop too. You also need to think of mandatory manufacturing requirements. At one point, rear backup cameras were limited to the high class vehicle segment – now, as a standard feature, even “poor low information socialist communist voters” can afford it (presuming they’re in the market for a new vehicle)
To your point, Tesla just pushed out a software update last month that included “semiautonomous” driving (basically the car drives itself on highways and one way roads – the car even reads speed limit signs). This software update was delivered to all of their 2014 or newer car models. Some of these vehicles have a $60k price tag. However, next year Tesla has stated that they will be bringing a car to the market that will have the same technology but will be priced at the $30k price point. This is when the game gets real and moves quickly. Several states have also already legalized driverless vehicles, Nevada was the first state to do so.
I have to read the report (and will read it)… but did the authors consider the insurance coverage needed to cover accidents/failings by auto manufacturers, software firms, telco firms, system integrators, and others involved creating, deploying, and maintaining the software used to run an autonomous vehicle?
Maybe they are just factoring auto insurance claims…all the extra people will probably have claims filed under their CGL’s or professional liability policies…just a guess
Volvo has already stated that they will accept liability for accidents occurring in their autonomous vehicle fleet if the vehicle is under “auto pilot”. That’s a commercial liability account of immense proportions. It’s also going to add a whole new dynamic to predictive modelling. I would not want to be working for a company that primarily markets to personal lines auto in 10 years’ time…
Volvo would be stupid to make that statement. If they do accept liability, they and their suppliers had better have very deep pockets. I wonder how much their “Products” coverage would cost them.
They did make this comment and they needed to. Days after Volvo made this announcement, Tesla came out with a statement very similar. The car companies know that they can not get this technology to mass adoption until the liability hurdle is removed.
Whenever an auto manufacturer states they will cover the liability insurance – or provide other insurance – I hope customers are smart enough to ask what the terms, conditions, and restrictions are.
There have been numerous airbag recalls to date, absolutely; however, I think the number of lives saved by the use of airbags grossly outweighs the frequency of said recalls. While nothing is ever really perfect, having some safety feature(s) will always be better than having none.
Who pays these idiots? Hybrid vehicles hit the market in 1999 and still sit at about a 3% of new car sales. I would wager that less than 7% of new cars sold have in-vehicle navigation. Most Americans aren’t going to shell out more money for luxury or trendy vehicles and auto makers will continue to manufacture cars that people want to buy. These folks have their heads up their rears.
I love the concluding suggestion that auto carriers will need to merge/acquire, diversify or embrace technology to survive. How insightful!!! I hope no one paid for this report.
Mike, I think you are missing the point with self driving cars. Self driving is a much more attractive feature than navigation or hybrid technology. The features you mentioned can be likened to cell phone technology prior to the iPhone. The cell phone companies came out with minor improvement after minor improvement for years and people hung on to their old cell phone for years because they did not see a reason to purchase a new phone. Then the iPhone hit the market and BOOM! the cell phone industry changed completely. Now people can’t wait longer than 12 months before they are trading in their phones for new phones. I think we will see that in the auto industry soon. Instead of hanging onto a car for an average of 7 years I imagine people will be trading up for the next and greatest every 2 years because technology will advance in the cars at a much faster pace. Horse power will no longer be what drives the consumer. It will be safety and technology features.
They are being proactive. They don’t really have the option of deciding whether or not they are going to be liable for their products. Luckily people like you haven’t made that possible yet. If their product is being used as intended, and harming people, then people have the right to seek remediation for their harm. They cannot just say because their product was being used properly, but they don’t feel like it, they aren’t going to be liable for the harm it causes through improper design.
I’m confused. Article only shows losses to be down but I feel there will be even more auto’s on the road (maybe in urban area’s this will not be the case). If more vehicles how will the Personal Auto sector shrink?
Hey TX, the libtards out there seem to think that large states can get by fine on public transportation so no need for cars in the future. However, in Texas, we talk in term of how many hours it takes to get from one city to another. I don’t think anyone wants to take Amtrak to work every morning. By the time you get there, it is time to go home.
“That rainbow song’s no good. Take it out.” — MGM memo after the screening of the Wizard of Oz
“Radio has no future…x-rays are clearly a hoax…the aeroplane is scientifically impossible.” — Royal Society president Lord Kelvin, 1899
“Forget it. No Civil War picture ever made a nickel.” — MGM executive, advising against investing in Gone With the Wind
“The atom bomb will never go off…and I speak as an expert in explosives.” — U.S. Admiral William Leahy, US Atomic Bomb Project, 1945
“The Beatles? They’re on the wane.” — Duke of Edinburgh, 1965
“We don’t like their sound, and guitar music is on the way out.” — Decca Recording Co. rejecting the Beatles, 1962
“Television won’t matter in your lifetime or mine.” — Radio Times editor Rex Lambert, 1936
“Everything that can be invented has been invented.” — Charles Duell, U.S. patent office director, 1899
“You’d better learn secretarial skills or else get married.” — modelling agency rejecting Marilyn Monroe in 1944
“You ought to go back to driving a truck.” — concert manager firing Elvis Presley in 1954
“Very interesting, Whittle, my boy, but it will never work.” — professor of aeronautical engineering at Cambridge, after being show Frank Whittle’s plan for the jet engine
“Louis Pasteur’s theory of germs is ridiculous fiction.” — Pierre Pachet, professor of physiology at Toulouse, 1872
“The wireless music box has no imaginable commercial value. Who would pay for a message sent to nobody in particular?” — David Sarnoff’s associates in response to his urging for investment in the radio in the 1920s
“There is no reason for any individual to have a computer in his home.” — Kenneth H. Olson, president of DEC, Convention of the World Future Society, 1977
“This ‘telephone’ has too many shortcomings to be seriously considered as a means of communication. The device is inherently of no value to us.” — Western Union internal memo, 1876
“The concept is interesting and well-formed, but in order to earn better than a ‘C,’ the idea must be feasible.” — A Yale University management professor in response to Fred Smith’s paper proposing reliable overnight delivery service. (Smith went on to found Federal Express Corp.)
“Who the hell wants to hear actors talk?” — H.M. Warner, Warner Brothers, 1927
“I’m just glad it’ll be Clark Gable who’s falling on his face and not Gary Cooper.” — Gary Cooper, on his decision to not take the leading role in “Gone With The Wind”
“A cookie store is a bad idea. Besides, the market research reports say America likes crispy cookies, not soft and chewy cookies like you make.” — Response to Debbi Fields’ idea of starting Mrs. Fields’ Cookies
“Heavier-than-air flying machines are impossible.” — Lord Kelvin, president, Royal Society, 1895
“So we went to Atari and said, ‘Hey, we’ve got this amazing thing, even built with some of your parts, and what do you think about funding us? Or we’ll give it to you. We just want to do it. Pay our salary, we’ll come work for you.’ And they said, ‘No.’ So then we went to Hewlett-Packard, and they said, ‘Hey, we don’t need you. You haven’t got through college yet.'” — Apple Computer Inc. founder Steve Jobs on attempts to get Atari and H-P interested in his and Steve Wozniak’s personal computer
“Professor Goddard does not know the relation between action and reaction and the need to have something better than a vacuum against which to react. He seems to lack the basic knowledge ladled out daily in high schools.” — 1921 New York Times editorial about Robert Goddard’s revolutionary rocket work
“You want to have consistent and uniform muscle development across all of your muscles? It can’t be done. It’s just a fact of life. You just have to accept inconsistent muscle development as an unalterable condition of weight training.” — Response to Arthur Jones, who solved the “unsolvable” problem by inventing Nautilus
“Drill for oil? You mean drill into the ground to try and find oil? You’re crazy.” — Drillers whom Edwin L. Drake tried to enlist in his project to drill for oil in 1859
“Stocks have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau.” — Irving Fisher, Professor of Economics, Yale University, 1929
“Airplanes are interesting toys but of no military value.” — Marechal Ferdinand Foch, Professor of Strategy, Ecole Superieure de Guerre
“The abdomen, the chest, and the brain will forever be shut from the intrusion of the wise and humane surgeon”. — Sir John Eric Ericksen, British surgeon, appointed Surgeon-Extraordinary to Queen Victoria 1873
“No flying machine will ever fly from New York to Paris.” — Orville Wright
“Computers in the future may weigh no more than 1.5 tons.” — Popular Mechanics, forecasting the relentless march of science, 1949
“I think there is a world market for maybe five computers.” — Thomas Watson, chairman of IBM, 1943
“I have traveled the length and breadth of this country and talked with the best people, and I can assure you that data processing is a fad that won’t last out the year.” — The editor in charge of business books for Prentice Hall, 1957
“But what … is it good for?” — Engineer at the Advanced Computing Systems Division of IBM, 1968, commenting on the microchip.
“The telephone will be used to inform people that a telegram has been sent.” — Alexander Graham Bell.
“Can’t dance. Can’t act. Can sing a little.” — Notes from Fred Astaire’s screen test.
“If I had thought about it, I wouldn’t have done the experiment. The literature was full of examples that said you can’t do this.” — Spencer Silver on the work that led to the unique adhesives for 3M “Post-It” Pads
“This fellow Charles Lindbergh will never make it. He’s doomed.” — Harry Guggenheim, millionaire aviation enthusiast.
“Man will never reach the moon regardless of all future scientific advances.” — Dr. Lee De Forest, inventor of the vacuum tube.
“If excessive smoking actually plays a role in the production of lung cancer, it seems to be a minor one.” — Dr. W.C. Heuper of the National Cancer Institute, as quoted in the New York Times on April 14, 1954.
“For the majority of People, smoking has a beneficial effect.” — Dr. Ian G. Macdonald, Los Angeles surgeon, quoted in “Newsweek”, Nov. 8th 1963.
“640K ought to be enough for anybody.” — Bill Gates, 1981.
“The Transistor is a passing fad.” — Dr. William J. Barclay, EE Department NCSU, 1969.
“Apple… What a Dumb Name for a computer company.” — Glen A. Williamson, deciding between a Sol-20 computer kit & an Apple II, 1979.
People are going to be shocked at how fast this revolution will happen. The personal insurance market share will shrink by far more than 60% by 2040. Despite population growth the auto market will shrink, as much more car sharing will occur, along with some additional mass transit coming online.
But more importantly, with car manufacturers (Volvo, Google, Mercedes, etc) already saying they will assume ALL liability for their fully autonomous cars, there will be no need for any personal liability insurance (huge selling point, which will further speed up the process). And with ObamaCare, the need for PIP is already shrinking.
Add in that many of these “features” will soon be “regulatory requirements” and the future of personal auto insurance is much, much smaller in 2040 than today. Comprehensive and Collision will still be around, but not nearly with the same pricing power.
While no business likes future shrinking revenues and insurance job losses will occur, the overall benefit to society of nearly eliminating auto accident deaths by 2040 is more good than bad.
25 years ago this was only a sci-fi dream. Today it’s already on the road in beta form. 25 years from now (2040), the human driving car will be seen as a Model T.
Dont forget all the sales, crs, and tech employees being able to tele-commute and not needing a car at all in rural areas. A family that would have 3 cars might only have one for vacations and it could be a self driving car too!
Good thing I am shooting for a 2032 retirement date. The sky is falling, the world is coming to an end and people will be signing up to buy self-driving cars across the country so I’ll be unemployed on top of it as I won’t be able to write any personal auto. I can predict one thing. I’ll be driving my car myself, always. No interest at all in remote controlled box to get me around.
I think you represent the majority of adults in the US. It will take a few generations to get the masses comfortable with letting a computer drive their car. I don’t even let my wife drive me around!
Wayne, do you also exclusively take the stairs to avoid “remote controlled boxes” from inconveniencing you?
During your retirement years when you lose the legal ability to drive will you be calling your family from your rotary phone to push you out of the house in your manual wheelchair so they can cram you into your 2007 Mazda Miata?
A poorly documented article. Weak assumptions. Ford and GM are gearing UP for the expansion of affordable family cars over the next 15 – 20 years. (And so is Toyota, Honda, etc.) New auto plants are being constructed in my neck of the woods. MS,GA. Guess they should read KPMG’s article….
Ford seems to be expanding to Mexico to build cars. We do have several automakers in the south already, mostly foreign like Mercedes, Toyota. It must be driving the blue states unions crazy that they can’t organize them down there.
And Farmers still says “It’s never been a better time to be a Farmers agent!”
Perhaps Farmers should change the message to “There will never be a better time to be a Farmers agent”.
I think the PwC estimate cited in the article is more accurate than the 60% shrinkage projected by KPMG. I am skeptical of how rapid they think autonomous vehicles will be adopted. Two reasons – 1) wage increase doesn’t see like it will keep up with the cost increase of an autonomous vehicle. The technology needs to become more affordable for it to become mainstream. 2) People like to drive! That is changing, I know, but many people have no interest in letting the car drive by itself.
What do you mean become more affordable?
Fully autonomous vehicles aren’t being sold to the public yet, are they?
CL, you are right about the affordability factor and the fact that the middle class has been declining for at least 7 years will make the technology out of the reach of most Americans. I have a customer that bought one of those Tesla sports cars (All electric) and he gave right at $100,000 for it. I can only imagine how much these autonomous vehicles will cost in the future.
7 years? Try 35 years.
As time goes on, the price of the tech will drop too. You also need to think of mandatory manufacturing requirements. At one point, rear backup cameras were limited to the high class vehicle segment – now, as a standard feature, even “poor low information socialist communist voters” can afford it (presuming they’re in the market for a new vehicle)
To your point, Tesla just pushed out a software update last month that included “semiautonomous” driving (basically the car drives itself on highways and one way roads – the car even reads speed limit signs). This software update was delivered to all of their 2014 or newer car models. Some of these vehicles have a $60k price tag. However, next year Tesla has stated that they will be bringing a car to the market that will have the same technology but will be priced at the $30k price point. This is when the game gets real and moves quickly. Several states have also already legalized driverless vehicles, Nevada was the first state to do so.
I have to read the report (and will read it)… but did the authors consider the insurance coverage needed to cover accidents/failings by auto manufacturers, software firms, telco firms, system integrators, and others involved creating, deploying, and maintaining the software used to run an autonomous vehicle?
Maybe they are just factoring auto insurance claims…all the extra people will probably have claims filed under their CGL’s or professional liability policies…just a guess
Volvo has already stated that they will accept liability for accidents occurring in their autonomous vehicle fleet if the vehicle is under “auto pilot”. That’s a commercial liability account of immense proportions. It’s also going to add a whole new dynamic to predictive modelling. I would not want to be working for a company that primarily markets to personal lines auto in 10 years’ time…
Volvo would be stupid to make that statement. If they do accept liability, they and their suppliers had better have very deep pockets. I wonder how much their “Products” coverage would cost them.
They did make this comment and they needed to. Days after Volvo made this announcement, Tesla came out with a statement very similar. The car companies know that they can not get this technology to mass adoption until the liability hurdle is removed.
Whenever an auto manufacturer states they will cover the liability insurance – or provide other insurance – I hope customers are smart enough to ask what the terms, conditions, and restrictions are.
Didn’t they say the same thing when air bags and anti-lock brakes came out?
Air bags have already had their issues and it is not over. How many million recalls to date?
There have been numerous airbag recalls to date, absolutely; however, I think the number of lives saved by the use of airbags grossly outweighs the frequency of said recalls. While nothing is ever really perfect, having some safety feature(s) will always be better than having none.
Who pays these idiots? Hybrid vehicles hit the market in 1999 and still sit at about a 3% of new car sales. I would wager that less than 7% of new cars sold have in-vehicle navigation. Most Americans aren’t going to shell out more money for luxury or trendy vehicles and auto makers will continue to manufacture cars that people want to buy. These folks have their heads up their rears.
I love the concluding suggestion that auto carriers will need to merge/acquire, diversify or embrace technology to survive. How insightful!!! I hope no one paid for this report.
Mike, I think you are missing the point with self driving cars. Self driving is a much more attractive feature than navigation or hybrid technology. The features you mentioned can be likened to cell phone technology prior to the iPhone. The cell phone companies came out with minor improvement after minor improvement for years and people hung on to their old cell phone for years because they did not see a reason to purchase a new phone. Then the iPhone hit the market and BOOM! the cell phone industry changed completely. Now people can’t wait longer than 12 months before they are trading in their phones for new phones. I think we will see that in the auto industry soon. Instead of hanging onto a car for an average of 7 years I imagine people will be trading up for the next and greatest every 2 years because technology will advance in the cars at a much faster pace. Horse power will no longer be what drives the consumer. It will be safety and technology features.
They are being proactive. They don’t really have the option of deciding whether or not they are going to be liable for their products. Luckily people like you haven’t made that possible yet. If their product is being used as intended, and harming people, then people have the right to seek remediation for their harm. They cannot just say because their product was being used properly, but they don’t feel like it, they aren’t going to be liable for the harm it causes through improper design.
I’m confused. Article only shows losses to be down but I feel there will be even more auto’s on the road (maybe in urban area’s this will not be the case). If more vehicles how will the Personal Auto sector shrink?
Hey TX, the libtards out there seem to think that large states can get by fine on public transportation so no need for cars in the future. However, in Texas, we talk in term of how many hours it takes to get from one city to another. I don’t think anyone wants to take Amtrak to work every morning. By the time you get there, it is time to go home.
Leave it to a Texan to resort to names like “libtard” to make their point.
Not all Texans share the same thoughts and vocabulary as Agent! :)
Some other predictions from the past:
“That rainbow song’s no good. Take it out.” — MGM memo after the screening of the Wizard of Oz
“Radio has no future…x-rays are clearly a hoax…the aeroplane is scientifically impossible.” — Royal Society president Lord Kelvin, 1899
“Forget it. No Civil War picture ever made a nickel.” — MGM executive, advising against investing in Gone With the Wind
“The atom bomb will never go off…and I speak as an expert in explosives.” — U.S. Admiral William Leahy, US Atomic Bomb Project, 1945
“The Beatles? They’re on the wane.” — Duke of Edinburgh, 1965
“We don’t like their sound, and guitar music is on the way out.” — Decca Recording Co. rejecting the Beatles, 1962
“Television won’t matter in your lifetime or mine.” — Radio Times editor Rex Lambert, 1936
“Everything that can be invented has been invented.” — Charles Duell, U.S. patent office director, 1899
“You’d better learn secretarial skills or else get married.” — modelling agency rejecting Marilyn Monroe in 1944
“You ought to go back to driving a truck.” — concert manager firing Elvis Presley in 1954
“Very interesting, Whittle, my boy, but it will never work.” — professor of aeronautical engineering at Cambridge, after being show Frank Whittle’s plan for the jet engine
“Louis Pasteur’s theory of germs is ridiculous fiction.” — Pierre Pachet, professor of physiology at Toulouse, 1872
“The wireless music box has no imaginable commercial value. Who would pay for a message sent to nobody in particular?” — David Sarnoff’s associates in response to his urging for investment in the radio in the 1920s
“There is no reason for any individual to have a computer in his home.” — Kenneth H. Olson, president of DEC, Convention of the World Future Society, 1977
“This ‘telephone’ has too many shortcomings to be seriously considered as a means of communication. The device is inherently of no value to us.” — Western Union internal memo, 1876
“The concept is interesting and well-formed, but in order to earn better than a ‘C,’ the idea must be feasible.” — A Yale University management professor in response to Fred Smith’s paper proposing reliable overnight delivery service. (Smith went on to found Federal Express Corp.)
“Who the hell wants to hear actors talk?” — H.M. Warner, Warner Brothers, 1927
“I’m just glad it’ll be Clark Gable who’s falling on his face and not Gary Cooper.” — Gary Cooper, on his decision to not take the leading role in “Gone With The Wind”
“A cookie store is a bad idea. Besides, the market research reports say America likes crispy cookies, not soft and chewy cookies like you make.” — Response to Debbi Fields’ idea of starting Mrs. Fields’ Cookies
“Heavier-than-air flying machines are impossible.” — Lord Kelvin, president, Royal Society, 1895
“So we went to Atari and said, ‘Hey, we’ve got this amazing thing, even built with some of your parts, and what do you think about funding us? Or we’ll give it to you. We just want to do it. Pay our salary, we’ll come work for you.’ And they said, ‘No.’ So then we went to Hewlett-Packard, and they said, ‘Hey, we don’t need you. You haven’t got through college yet.'” — Apple Computer Inc. founder Steve Jobs on attempts to get Atari and H-P interested in his and Steve Wozniak’s personal computer
“Professor Goddard does not know the relation between action and reaction and the need to have something better than a vacuum against which to react. He seems to lack the basic knowledge ladled out daily in high schools.” — 1921 New York Times editorial about Robert Goddard’s revolutionary rocket work
“You want to have consistent and uniform muscle development across all of your muscles? It can’t be done. It’s just a fact of life. You just have to accept inconsistent muscle development as an unalterable condition of weight training.” — Response to Arthur Jones, who solved the “unsolvable” problem by inventing Nautilus
“Drill for oil? You mean drill into the ground to try and find oil? You’re crazy.” — Drillers whom Edwin L. Drake tried to enlist in his project to drill for oil in 1859
“Stocks have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau.” — Irving Fisher, Professor of Economics, Yale University, 1929
“Airplanes are interesting toys but of no military value.” — Marechal Ferdinand Foch, Professor of Strategy, Ecole Superieure de Guerre
“The abdomen, the chest, and the brain will forever be shut from the intrusion of the wise and humane surgeon”. — Sir John Eric Ericksen, British surgeon, appointed Surgeon-Extraordinary to Queen Victoria 1873
“No flying machine will ever fly from New York to Paris.” — Orville Wright
“Computers in the future may weigh no more than 1.5 tons.” — Popular Mechanics, forecasting the relentless march of science, 1949
“I think there is a world market for maybe five computers.” — Thomas Watson, chairman of IBM, 1943
“I have traveled the length and breadth of this country and talked with the best people, and I can assure you that data processing is a fad that won’t last out the year.” — The editor in charge of business books for Prentice Hall, 1957
“But what … is it good for?” — Engineer at the Advanced Computing Systems Division of IBM, 1968, commenting on the microchip.
“The telephone will be used to inform people that a telegram has been sent.” — Alexander Graham Bell.
“Can’t dance. Can’t act. Can sing a little.” — Notes from Fred Astaire’s screen test.
“If I had thought about it, I wouldn’t have done the experiment. The literature was full of examples that said you can’t do this.” — Spencer Silver on the work that led to the unique adhesives for 3M “Post-It” Pads
“This fellow Charles Lindbergh will never make it. He’s doomed.” — Harry Guggenheim, millionaire aviation enthusiast.
“Man will never reach the moon regardless of all future scientific advances.” — Dr. Lee De Forest, inventor of the vacuum tube.
“If excessive smoking actually plays a role in the production of lung cancer, it seems to be a minor one.” — Dr. W.C. Heuper of the National Cancer Institute, as quoted in the New York Times on April 14, 1954.
“For the majority of People, smoking has a beneficial effect.” — Dr. Ian G. Macdonald, Los Angeles surgeon, quoted in “Newsweek”, Nov. 8th 1963.
“640K ought to be enough for anybody.” — Bill Gates, 1981.
“The Transistor is a passing fad.” — Dr. William J. Barclay, EE Department NCSU, 1969.
“Apple… What a Dumb Name for a computer company.” — Glen A. Williamson, deciding between a Sol-20 computer kit & an Apple II, 1979.
You forgot “Climate change is a hoax.” – Agent on many Insurance Journal forums, 2011 – 2015
I was thinking about the annual hurricane prediction (actually not too bad this year) made out of Colorado.
People are going to be shocked at how fast this revolution will happen. The personal insurance market share will shrink by far more than 60% by 2040. Despite population growth the auto market will shrink, as much more car sharing will occur, along with some additional mass transit coming online.
But more importantly, with car manufacturers (Volvo, Google, Mercedes, etc) already saying they will assume ALL liability for their fully autonomous cars, there will be no need for any personal liability insurance (huge selling point, which will further speed up the process). And with ObamaCare, the need for PIP is already shrinking.
Add in that many of these “features” will soon be “regulatory requirements” and the future of personal auto insurance is much, much smaller in 2040 than today. Comprehensive and Collision will still be around, but not nearly with the same pricing power.
While no business likes future shrinking revenues and insurance job losses will occur, the overall benefit to society of nearly eliminating auto accident deaths by 2040 is more good than bad.
25 years ago this was only a sci-fi dream. Today it’s already on the road in beta form. 25 years from now (2040), the human driving car will be seen as a Model T.
Dont forget all the sales, crs, and tech employees being able to tele-commute and not needing a car at all in rural areas. A family that would have 3 cars might only have one for vacations and it could be a self driving car too!
And then a giant solar flare stops everything electronic.
I WAS IN THE POOL!!! I WAS IN THE POOL!!! IT’S SHRINKAGE!!!
Good thing I am shooting for a 2032 retirement date. The sky is falling, the world is coming to an end and people will be signing up to buy self-driving cars across the country so I’ll be unemployed on top of it as I won’t be able to write any personal auto. I can predict one thing. I’ll be driving my car myself, always. No interest at all in remote controlled box to get me around.
I think you represent the majority of adults in the US. It will take a few generations to get the masses comfortable with letting a computer drive their car. I don’t even let my wife drive me around!
Wayne, do you also exclusively take the stairs to avoid “remote controlled boxes” from inconveniencing you?
During your retirement years when you lose the legal ability to drive will you be calling your family from your rotary phone to push you out of the house in your manual wheelchair so they can cram you into your 2007 Mazda Miata?
A poorly documented article. Weak assumptions. Ford and GM are gearing UP for the expansion of affordable family cars over the next 15 – 20 years. (And so is Toyota, Honda, etc.) New auto plants are being constructed in my neck of the woods. MS,GA. Guess they should read KPMG’s article….
Ford seems to be expanding to Mexico to build cars. We do have several automakers in the south already, mostly foreign like Mercedes, Toyota. It must be driving the blue states unions crazy that they can’t organize them down there.