Meteorologist Leans Toward Forecasting More Hurricanes

The warm temperature of Atlantic Ocean waters and the absence of El Nino development could increase the number of tropical storms predicted to occur during the upcoming hurricane season, well-known hurricane forecaster William Gray said Thursday. The Colorado State University meteorologist is a featured speaker at Friday morning’s Governor’s Hurricane Conference at the Tampa Convention Center.

Gray, 75, and understudy Phil Klotzbach, 24, are watching an El Nino development—a warming of waters in the eastern Pacific Ocean—they told the Fort Myers News-Press, could help deter hurricane development in the Atlantic basin. If El Nino “remains neutral,” they said they may increase the number of predicted storms.

“The Atlantic is incredibly warm,” Klotzbach explained. “It’s so favorable (for development) right now that a weak El Nino may not even matter.”

In a forecast issued last month, Gray predicted 13 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes—those with winds greater than 114 mph. He will issue his final forecast May 31, a day before the six-month hurricane season begins.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association is scheduled to release its seasonal hurricane forecast May 16 to coincide with the beginning of hurricane awareness week.

Stacy Stewart, a hurricane specialist at the National Hurricane Center, said it’s too early to tell whether the Bermuda high that helped steer hurricanes into Florida last year will do so again.
“It depends on where that Bermuda high sets up,” he said. “It’s not like it stays in one place for weeks at a time. It shifts.”

Gray and other experts agree the Atlantic basin remains in a period of active hurricane development that could last for a decade or more.

“Obviously, the more hurricanes that form,” Klotzbach said, “the more chance for them to make landfall here.”

Topics Catastrophe Natural Disasters Hurricane