Insurance companies and risk experts may not agree on the exact amount of the insured losses caused by the recent and ongoing floods and storms in Britain, but they all agree that the damages will be substantial. (See related story)
Risk Management Solutions (RMS) of Menlo Park, which has one of the most sophisticated risk analysis programs for European weather reported that the losses from the storms which have drenched the U.K. since the middle of October could reach £500 million ($725 million).
Because no one can predict when the bad weather may lift, it’s extremely difficult to quantify the damages. The figures are the “best estimates” at present, and can fluctuate widely.
Michael Drayton, the principal modeler at RMS, stated that the losses from the October 13-14 storms, and the present damage was between £150 and £250 million ($218 and $363 million). “However, as the flood peaks move downstream,”said Drayton, “and if the wet weather associated with the current spell continues, the number of flooded properties will rise. It is too early to put a figure on the event, but the combined insured losses from winds and flooding could reach (pound) 500 million.”
RMS pointed out that according to the U.K. meteorological office rainfall in central England in October was 200 percent above the 1961-90 norms, and exceeded 350 percent in certain parts of the southeast. By probability estimates this happens on average only once in 200 years, unless of course world climatic conditions are indeed changing, as many experts predict.
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