AIR Worldwide Updates Mediterranean Region Earthquake Model

September 9, 2009

AIR Worldwide Corporation has updated its probabilistic earthquake risk model for the Mediterranean region. The Boston-based catastrophe risk modeling firm, noted that the model is “used by European insurers, brokers, and reinsurers to manage earthquake risk in this region.”

The newly released model “features an updated seismicity model for Portugal, revised damage functions for all modeled countries based on recently published data and research, revised age band modifiers, and a rigorous engineering-based treatment of building vulnerability as a function of height,” said the bulletin.

“The Mediterranean region is capable of producing very large earthquakes,” explained Dr. Milan Simic, Managing Director, AIR Worldwide Ltd. “A recent example is the magnitude 7.5 earthquake that struck Izmit, Turkey in 1999, which ruptured more than 150 kilometers (93 miles) of the North Anatolian Fault from Düzce all the way to the Sea of Marmara. The temblor cut a swath of destruction across seven provinces, from Istanbul to Bolu. AIR estimates that a recurrence of the Izmit earthquake would produce insured losses on the order of €7.5 billion ($10.7 billion), while total damage would exceed €27 billion ($38 billion).”

AIR also noted that 2009 is the 10 year anniversary of three significant earthquakes in the Mediterranean region: Izmit, Düzce, and Athens. The modeling firm estimates that the Athens, Greece earthquake, which occurred on 7 September 1999, would “result in about €1.0 billion ($1.43 billion – ) insured losses if it were to recur today. In all, thirteen historical events are now included in the model, enabling users to simulate the effects of a recurrence of such major earthquakes as the devastating 1755 Lisbon earthquake. Quakes of that magnitude today would cause huge losses.

“Over the past five years the body of scientific knowledge related to Mediterranean earthquake risk has grown, particularly with respect to the seismicity of Portugal,” Dr. Guillermo Franco, senior engineer at AIR Worldwide, pointed out. “This update incorporates the latest research on seismicity and vulnerability to provide companies with a robust model for evaluating earthquake risk in the Mediterranean.”

AIR’s Earthquake Model for the Mediterranean Region covers Italy, Portugal, Greece, Turkey, and Israel. The updated model is available in Version 11.0 of AIR’s CLASIC/2™ and CATRADER® catastrophe risk modeling applications.

Source: AIR Worldwide – www.air-worldwide.com

Topics Catastrophe Natural Disasters

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