Third Typhoon Threatens Philippines

October 19, 2009

The Philippines, already devastated by deadly floods from two recent tropical cyclones, is bracing for yet a third storm, as typhoon Lupit approaches the island chain.

The most recent bulletin from catastrophe modeler Risk Management Solutions warns that Lupit “has continued to intensify over the weekend and as of this morning was located approximately 870 miles (1,395 km) east northeast of Manila, Philippines as a category 4 storm.”

Lupit is moving in a northwest direction and is expected to continue for the next 12 hours before taking a more southwest direction towards the northern Philippines. The latest joint Typhoon Warning Center forecast indicates that Lupit will make landfall in northern Luzon Island on Thursday, 22 October.

However, RMS also indicated that a “slight deviation to the north would mean that Lupit may avoid a direct impact with the Philippines,” but it is nonetheless expected to “bring heavy rainfall to northern Luzon later in the week.

“The intensity forecasts suggest that Lupit will slowly weaken as it approaches the Philippines but could still remain the equivalent of a category 3 or 4 storm on impact. Interaction with northern Luzon is likely to initiate a period of rapid weakening prior to further strengthening when the storm emerges over the South China Sea.”

RMS said it would continue to monitor Lupit and will update accordingly.

Source: Risk Management Solutions – www.rms.com

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