Oil Climbs as Strikes on Saudi Facilities Stoke Anxiety; Hormuz Near Standstill

Oil prices climbed on Friday, driven by fresh anxiety over supplies from Saudi Arabia and as tanker traffic through the critical Strait of Hormuz remained largely frozen.

Prices were still headed for a loss as nerves eased over a fragile two-week ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran, while Israel signaled a potential diplomatic opening, saying it was ready to begin direct talks with Lebanon as soon as possible.

Brent crude futures LCOc1 added 96 cents, or 1%, to $96.88 a barrel as of 0604 GMT. West Texas Intermediate futures CLc1 were up 78 cents, 0.80%, at $98.65 a barrel.

For this week, both contracts have so far lost about 11%, the biggest weekly decline since June 2025 when the previous Israeli-U.S. strikes on Iran were halted..

Attacks on Saudi energy facilities have cut the kingdom’s oil production capacity by around 600,000 barrels per day and throughput on its East-West Pipeline by about 700,000 bpd, Saudi state news agency SPA reported on Thursday, citing an official source at the Ministry of Energy.

Concerns of further oil supply disruptions were heightened after the report, ANZ analysts said in a Friday note.

Ship traffic through the strait stood at well below 10% of normal volumes on Thursday despite the ceasefire as Tehran asserted its control by warning ships to keep to its territorial waters while doing so.

Iran and the U.S. agreed on Tuesday to a two-week ceasefire brokered by Pakistan, but fighting was still taking place following the announcement.

Analysts say Pakistan will try to push for a more durable peace agreement but may lack the leverage needed to compel the reopening of the strategic waterway.

Iran wants to charge fees for ships passing through the strait under a peace deal, a Tehran official told Reuters on April 7. Western leaders and the U.N.’s shipping agency have pushed back on the idea.

The crucial artery for oil and gas flows has been effectively shut down by the conflict, which began on February 28 when the U.S. and Israel launched air strikes on Iran.

Brent prices could reach $190 a barrel if flows through the Strait of Hormuz remain at the current level, said John Paisie, president of energy consultants Stratas Advisors.

“If Iran allows increasing flows the price of oil will be more moderated, but still well above pre-war levels.”

Mukesh Sahdev, founder & CEO of energy consultancy XAnalysts, said the “key variable now is how flows through the Strait of Hormuz actually resume – not whether they reopen.”

Some 50 infrastructure assets in the Gulf have been damaged by drone and missile strikes over the nearly six weeks since the conflict started, and around 2.4 million bpd of oil refining capacity have been taken offline, according to JPMorgan.

(Reporting by Colleen Howe in Beijing and Siyi Liu in Singapore; editing by Sonali Paul and Shri Navaratnam)

Photograph: Smoke rises after an Israeli airstrike hits a building near the airport road in Beirut, Lebanon, Tuesday, March 31, 2026. (AP Photo/Hussein Malla)