Here we go again. These guys (in Colorado no less, about as far from hurricane country as you can get in the US) who make their annual predictions are rarely accurate. In fact, they usually have to ervise their predictions every year.
The sad part about this is that so many insurance companies and reinsurers base their strategies on what these predict.
You know I hear lots of Northerns make comments regarding the Colorado University Science Dept making hurricane predictions from the mountains. You don’t have to be in the Tropics to calculate statistical data. Remember they are only issuing Forecasts; which means to estimate. Try living in Southeastern US through 35 years of hurricane seasons and you may decide that maybe the scientists know a little more about Meteorology than you do.
Nobody, not even the scientists who make them, expects these forecasts to be correct every time. The science of forecasting hurricane activity is only part of the continueing study of tropical storms. The same data is available in Ft. Collins, Colorado as is available in Miami, Florida.
And quite frankly, nobody makes decisions based solely on these forecasts, save maybe how much capital to hold for paying out hurricane claims in the coming year.
Many Southeners relay on these forecasts! Whether they are perfect or not, these predictions give many of us time to prepare. Mother Nature tends to have a mind of her own, so no weather forecast is 100%.
Trust me, the insurance companies get their money no matter what they predict. It’s not the insurance companies we should worry about, it’s the people who live in the places most affected by hurricanes.
Regardless of what the forecast is, in the everyone on the coast has to be prepared. Have plenty of extra water, batteries and an evacuation plan. It could only be one hurricane, and that one could be heading your way.
Well out of 1 Million years the planet may have existed, sciencists have only been recording hurrican data for the last 57 years. We have to work with what we have.
And the others are also correct, no matter how many they forecast, if you live in the Gulf Coast or the Atlantic Coast regions you have to be prepared. Even if it’s for just one hurricane. We were prepared as we could be in 2004 for the 3 hurricanes that crossed central Florida.
I think what you are paying for as far as insurance goes are the luxuries that people take for granted…like the oil, coffee ect. that our major port bring in!
Try making a living in NY selling Homeowners where we haven’t had a hurricane in 23 years. Predictions of doom and gloom may well be accurate for Florida and the Gulf Coast, but have been dead wrong for the Northeast.
I have my own theory as to why hurricanes haven’t come up this way in so long: Nature abhors a vacuum. Tropical storms that spawn in the South Atlantic begin moving West. At the same time, large numbers of immigrants have been moving from Mexico and Central America into the US, thus leaving a vacuum there. The tropical storms and hurricanes then move to Central American, drawn in by this vacuum. Since we have so many of these new immigrants up North here, the storms stay away.
Makes about as much sense as the Colorado folks do. And teh results seem to verify this thoery. When are the Noble Proze folks going to call me?
I’m with NY guy. These clowns are ALWAYS inaccurate. Why bother with these doom and gloom made-up forecasts whose only value is to the insurance companies who fund them so the companies can jack rates. Its the old “you’re really going to get clobbered this year so we have to jack up your HO rates” routine only to have nothing happen. Then next year they say the same thing. But you say, “I’ve lived on the CT coast the past twenty-five years and never had to file a HO claim!” And the insurance companies say (this is classic) “Then you’re due!” and they jack up the rates anyway!! HA-HA-HA, this joke never gets old!!
On the other hand (and may the Gods of chance forgive me for even THINKING this), I can understand insurance companie’s actions.
They hear these dire doom & gloom predictions. Even if they themselves don’t believe them, with everybody else battening down the hatches, what choice do they have? If a big loss were to occur, like a Hurricane Andrew, Katrina or Rita, and they didn’t heed the doom & gloomers, they’ll be pilloried.
If they DO follow the crowd, they can just say it was conventional wisdom. However, to my way of thinking, if they don’t believe the doomsayers but they do follow their advice, they’re just cowards.
If you know anything at all about how Insurance Companies file their rates, then you would know that companies cannot just increase their rates when they feel like it or when these FORECASTS come out.
First you have Acutaries, and they are going to look at their company’s loss ratio; for the company as a whole and in the states that were or will be most affected. Then they are going to make recommendations to those in charge, it’s the Company Big Wigs that are going to decide if the rate changes will work or not in an already soft market. If they decide rates need to be increased, (or decreased as they were in Florida in 2006) then the compnay has have to file their changes with the State DOI and wait for approval. Not all states are file and use like, but as a New York agent NY Guy should know it takes forever to get rate changes approved in that and many other states. Then if the changes are approved they will not be immediately in force.
Unfortunately rate increases like the ones you all are dooming and glooming about thend to occur after a major catistrophic event, when companies are needing to recoup their losses.
Rates cannot and are not changed just because the FORECAST (remember this means TO ESTIMATE)says this is going to be a very active Tropical Hurricane Season or not. (You may not get hit with Hurricanes alot in CT and NY but don’t forget they do turn into Noreasters)
“Unfortunately rate increases like the ones you all are dooming and glooming about thend to occur after a major catistrophic event, when companies are needing to recoup their losses.”
You are kidding aren’t you? My rates have gone up 300% in a NON-CAOSTAL area of Florida where there has not been a hurricane hit for over 60 years! The insurance companies raise rates as often as they can and the “doom and gloom” forecasters add to the problem. I don’t think they have a clue. Just look at the last two years they were so far off their predictions it is a laughing joke!! With the joke being on the residents of Florida with outrageous premiums!
Rates are one thing, but availability is a bigger issue. Most companies will not write HO within a mile of the south shore of Long Island, and within a half mile of the north shore. No exceptions.
So, in order to get coverage at all, insureds are forced to use Lloyds or excess carriers, sometimes for homes whose repalcement is under $200,000. These are not McMansions. These are average to below average in terms of values.
Again, Long Island hasn’t had a hurricane hit since Spetemner of 1987 (Gloria). The damage from N’oreasters hasn’t been bad either.
All the carriers I speak with say the same thing: it’s teh re-insurers who are causing the problem, and they are basing THEIR actions on thse profiles, modelers, and so called experts. When the experts are wrong for years (now decades) in a row, they just continue with their doom and gloom predictions and insureds, and agents & brokers get the beating.
Here we go again. These guys (in Colorado no less, about as far from hurricane country as you can get in the US) who make their annual predictions are rarely accurate. In fact, they usually have to ervise their predictions every year.
The sad part about this is that so many insurance companies and reinsurers base their strategies on what these predict.
You know I hear lots of Northerns make comments regarding the Colorado University Science Dept making hurricane predictions from the mountains. You don’t have to be in the Tropics to calculate statistical data. Remember they are only issuing Forecasts; which means to estimate. Try living in Southeastern US through 35 years of hurricane seasons and you may decide that maybe the scientists know a little more about Meteorology than you do.
Thank you Florida U/W for a thoughtful reaction.
Nobody, not even the scientists who make them, expects these forecasts to be correct every time. The science of forecasting hurricane activity is only part of the continueing study of tropical storms. The same data is available in Ft. Collins, Colorado as is available in Miami, Florida.
And quite frankly, nobody makes decisions based solely on these forecasts, save maybe how much capital to hold for paying out hurricane claims in the coming year.
Many Southeners relay on these forecasts! Whether they are perfect or not, these predictions give many of us time to prepare. Mother Nature tends to have a mind of her own, so no weather forecast is 100%.
Trust me, the insurance companies get their money no matter what they predict. It’s not the insurance companies we should worry about, it’s the people who live in the places most affected by hurricanes.
Here is my prediction…… There will be a few severe storms…. a few tropical storms….and a few Hurricanes.
Regardless of what the forecast is, in the everyone on the coast has to be prepared. Have plenty of extra water, batteries and an evacuation plan. It could only be one hurricane, and that one could be heading your way.
Is 57 years out of the 1 million plus the planet has existed statisticall significant?
Well out of 1 Million years the planet may have existed, sciencists have only been recording hurrican data for the last 57 years. We have to work with what we have.
And the others are also correct, no matter how many they forecast, if you live in the Gulf Coast or the Atlantic Coast regions you have to be prepared. Even if it’s for just one hurricane. We were prepared as we could be in 2004 for the 3 hurricanes that crossed central Florida.
I think what you are paying for as far as insurance goes are the luxuries that people take for granted…like the oil, coffee ect. that our major port bring in!
Try making a living in NY selling Homeowners where we haven’t had a hurricane in 23 years. Predictions of doom and gloom may well be accurate for Florida and the Gulf Coast, but have been dead wrong for the Northeast.
I have my own theory as to why hurricanes haven’t come up this way in so long: Nature abhors a vacuum. Tropical storms that spawn in the South Atlantic begin moving West. At the same time, large numbers of immigrants have been moving from Mexico and Central America into the US, thus leaving a vacuum there. The tropical storms and hurricanes then move to Central American, drawn in by this vacuum. Since we have so many of these new immigrants up North here, the storms stay away.
Makes about as much sense as the Colorado folks do. And teh results seem to verify this thoery. When are the Noble Proze folks going to call me?
“When are the Noble Proze folks going to call me?”
Err, your proze isn’t very noble.
Why not try selling another form of insurance?
guess I should have said Noble Prose?
I’m with NY guy. These clowns are ALWAYS inaccurate. Why bother with these doom and gloom made-up forecasts whose only value is to the insurance companies who fund them so the companies can jack rates. Its the old “you’re really going to get clobbered this year so we have to jack up your HO rates” routine only to have nothing happen. Then next year they say the same thing. But you say, “I’ve lived on the CT coast the past twenty-five years and never had to file a HO claim!” And the insurance companies say (this is classic) “Then you’re due!” and they jack up the rates anyway!! HA-HA-HA, this joke never gets old!!
On the other hand (and may the Gods of chance forgive me for even THINKING this), I can understand insurance companie’s actions.
They hear these dire doom & gloom predictions. Even if they themselves don’t believe them, with everybody else battening down the hatches, what choice do they have? If a big loss were to occur, like a Hurricane Andrew, Katrina or Rita, and they didn’t heed the doom & gloomers, they’ll be pilloried.
If they DO follow the crowd, they can just say it was conventional wisdom. However, to my way of thinking, if they don’t believe the doomsayers but they do follow their advice, they’re just cowards.
If you know anything at all about how Insurance Companies file their rates, then you would know that companies cannot just increase their rates when they feel like it or when these FORECASTS come out.
First you have Acutaries, and they are going to look at their company’s loss ratio; for the company as a whole and in the states that were or will be most affected. Then they are going to make recommendations to those in charge, it’s the Company Big Wigs that are going to decide if the rate changes will work or not in an already soft market. If they decide rates need to be increased, (or decreased as they were in Florida in 2006) then the compnay has have to file their changes with the State DOI and wait for approval. Not all states are file and use like, but as a New York agent NY Guy should know it takes forever to get rate changes approved in that and many other states. Then if the changes are approved they will not be immediately in force.
Unfortunately rate increases like the ones you all are dooming and glooming about thend to occur after a major catistrophic event, when companies are needing to recoup their losses.
Rates cannot and are not changed just because the FORECAST (remember this means TO ESTIMATE)says this is going to be a very active Tropical Hurricane Season or not. (You may not get hit with Hurricanes alot in CT and NY but don’t forget they do turn into Noreasters)
FL U/W is from PT Jefferson, Long Island
“Unfortunately rate increases like the ones you all are dooming and glooming about thend to occur after a major catistrophic event, when companies are needing to recoup their losses.”
You are kidding aren’t you? My rates have gone up 300% in a NON-CAOSTAL area of Florida where there has not been a hurricane hit for over 60 years! The insurance companies raise rates as often as they can and the “doom and gloom” forecasters add to the problem. I don’t think they have a clue. Just look at the last two years they were so far off their predictions it is a laughing joke!! With the joke being on the residents of Florida with outrageous premiums!
Rates are one thing, but availability is a bigger issue. Most companies will not write HO within a mile of the south shore of Long Island, and within a half mile of the north shore. No exceptions.
So, in order to get coverage at all, insureds are forced to use Lloyds or excess carriers, sometimes for homes whose repalcement is under $200,000. These are not McMansions. These are average to below average in terms of values.
Again, Long Island hasn’t had a hurricane hit since Spetemner of 1987 (Gloria). The damage from N’oreasters hasn’t been bad either.
All the carriers I speak with say the same thing: it’s teh re-insurers who are causing the problem, and they are basing THEIR actions on thse profiles, modelers, and so called experts. When the experts are wrong for years (now decades) in a row, they just continue with their doom and gloom predictions and insureds, and agents & brokers get the beating.