Over-Reliance on Models One Lesson of Subprime Crisis, Actuaries Say

December 10, 2008

  • December 10, 2008 at 12:44 pm
    Edmund says:
    Like or Dislike:
    Thumb up 0
    Thumb down 0

    this is spot on!! The collapse was a certainty even before it started.

  • December 10, 2008 at 1:00 am
    Joe K. Longley says:
    Like or Dislike:
    Thumb up 0
    Thumb down 0

    I would prefer the professional negligence route in order to involve primary and excess E & O carriers– and possibly reinsurers in the “net of coverage”.

  • December 10, 2008 at 1:08 am
    Common Sense says:
    Like or Dislike:
    Thumb up 0
    Thumb down 0

    Did anyone ever look back and say. hmmmm the people we are loaning money two can they pay the loan back??????

    Does all the predictive modeling answer that question?

    This isn’t rocket science boys…….But GREED get’s in the way huh……

  • December 10, 2008 at 1:21 am
    BS Detector says:
    Like or Dislike:
    Thumb up 0
    Thumb down 0

    I hate to burst everyone’s bubble but there were folks who predicted this years ago; if you doubt this check the archives at web sites like lewrockwell.com, mises.org and others. Why didn’t anyone listen to them? Because they weren’t “respectable,” they didn’t kowtow to “conventional wisdom,” they dared to say that the emperor has no clothes, they aired “dissent” (otherwise known as truth), and lastly, they knew what they were talking about. All of which means you’ll never see their names in the lamestream media.

  • December 10, 2008 at 2:19 am
    AI Jesus says:
    Like or Dislike:
    Thumb up 0
    Thumb down 0

    I dont get it, if someone loses money in the market, doesn’t someone else “gain” it?

    And shouldn’t I be rewarded for sitting on the sidelines and being conservative?

    Shouldn’t I be happy that the fat cats are losing money? Even if they provide jobs, so what, Ive still got mine.

    Just get another job somewhere else, aren’t there any big “winners” coming out of this that can create new jobs?

    Can wealth really just disappear?

    Im just a middle class schmuck who had nothing to gain if these companies did well, so why should I have to lose when they take foolish risks?

    This is not fair. I wont allow it.

    This is a bigger reason why people are buying guns, more so than fear of an Obama gun ban, its fear of a government meltdown.

  • December 11, 2008 at 7:40 am
    Ratemaker says:
    Like or Dislike:
    Thumb up 0
    Thumb down 0

    Just because someone loses money doesn’t mean someone else gains it. Accounting rules can make wealth (in the form of carrying values on balance sheets) appear or disappear.

    Wealth disappears when the market value of an asset (such as AIG stock) plummets precipitously and the rules force you to restate the value of your assets at the current market value — even if you haven’t “realized” the loss by selling the asset yet.

  • December 11, 2008 at 8:56 am
    Pete says:
    Like or Dislike:
    Thumb up 0
    Thumb down 0

    With any model you need someone with experience and intuition to stand back and look at it and see if it makes sense from an intuition standpoint. People without a financial interest in the outcome knew this was a bad idea. Those that saw it as workable may have been influenced by the money they might make in the short run.

  • December 11, 2008 at 11:11 am
    Md-Musketeer says:
    Like or Dislike:
    Thumb up 0
    Thumb down 0

    Failed Promises was the Dingell Report on the failure of Mission, Tranist, Ideal, etc. The parallels of MGA’s and REinsurance brokers to mortgage brokers and wall street investment bankers is extraordinary.

    Good reading for those who want to avoid going Back to the Future.



Add a Comment

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

*