“Today in Texas, it’s going to be hot. Tomorrow, it’s going to be real hot. Look for continued hot into next week, until it officially turns into summer where we’re in for a warm front which will stick around for the next several months. Portions of the state can expect to be very hot and dry, where closer to Houston you can expect unbelievably hot and soupy. December and January look to be pretty frigid, with a low of 93 and a better than average chance of hot.”
You could have fooled me Texas, because where I live, we had the coldest, wettest winter in many years and now we have El Nino bringing rain on almost a daily basis.
June 11, 2015 at 6:48 pm
Wildguess says:
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They are predicting that there is an 85% chance of El Nino will continue. Again taking wild guesses and assumptions and massaging them to 85% certainty, but leaving 15% chance it wont, so they will be right either way. I predict that 85% of their answers will be 85% wrong. And they don’t even know the questions.
Wild Pitches is the statistic you want to reference when talking about pitchers failing.
June 15, 2015 at 2:42 pm
Agent says:
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Pitchers fail for a variety of reasons and wild pitches are just one of the statistics. Pitchers who cannot locate their pitches in the right zone get hit hard or they walk a lot of batters. Sooner or later, they have to come in with a pitch and the hitters eyes get big and so long.
June 15, 2015 at 3:03 pm
That's not right says:
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Okay — in that case, you want to use FIP and not ERA.
June 15, 2015 at 3:04 pm
louie says:
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anyone have any idea when is the earliest a team can be mathematically eliminated from any hope of playoff contention? Right now, my Phillies are 20 games under .500. Cole Hamels strikes out 10 in a game and they still lose 1-0.
You know it’s bad when they start offering tickets on Groupon.
Gonna be a L-O-N-G season.
June 15, 2015 at 3:47 pm
Rosenblatt says:
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The Philly’s, with a 0% likelihood of making it into the playoffs and sitting 14.5 games behind a Wild Card spot, have a Wild Card Elimination Number of 87.
June 15, 2015 at 4:19 pm
louie says:
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Thanks, Rosenblatt! When you put it like that, it makes them sound even worse. I guess we’ll always have ’08…
June 15, 2015 at 4:48 pm
Rosenblatt says:
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No problem Louie, and if it makes you feel any better about my reply, I’m a Red Sox fan and that team has stunk up the joint impressively the past few years.
Although the AL Least might be the weakest division, the BoSox have a WC elimination number of 91 games, are 8 games behind a Wild Card spot and have only a 12% chance of making the playoffs. Not really that much better than Philly.
June 15, 2015 at 5:51 pm
Agent says:
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One of the neatest inventions I have seen in baseball in recent years is the super imposed strike zone that ESPN is using on broadcast games. I watched some of the Reds-Cubs game last night and looking at behind the pitcher at the catcher is the strike zone. It was pretty easy to tell if it was a strike or not. The Umpires get it right most of the time although they have some trouble on corners and miss a pitch now and then.
June 16, 2015 at 8:27 am
Rosenblatt says:
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I agree the strike-zone feature is wonderful and adds a lot of value to watching the game, but it’s not always right.
A 5’2″ batter has a smaller strike zone than a 6’4″ batter, but the K-Zone is always the same size.
It’s just important to know that a ball could be outside of the K-Zone and the umpire could correctly call the pitch a strike.
Great tool, really adds context, but is not 100% reliable.
June 12, 2015 at 4:08 pm
Al Sleet says:
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“Tonight’s forecast: Dark. Continued mostly dark tonight turning to widely scattered light in the morning.”
Rosenblatt, home plate umpires have a pretty tough time calling balls and strikes with the variety of pitches thrown by major league pitchers and where the ball crosses the plate high or low or whether it is an inch off. To me, they struggle with the slider more than curves or fastballs. That good slider is a nasty pitch and often breaks late low and away. The question is whether it crossed in the strike zone or not.
“The question is whether it crossed in the strike zone or not.”
Yeah. I know. I get that.
That’s why I wrote that the K-zone is “not always right. A 5’2″ batter has a smaller strike zone than a 6’4″ batter, but the K-Zone is always the same size. It’s just important to know that a ball could be outside of the K-Zone and the umpire could correctly call the pitch a strike.”
Is El Nino manmade or a natural phenomenon that has happened numerous times in the planet’s history?
Isn’t it also amazing that while forecaster can’t accurately predict El Nino 6 months out they can predict global warming 50 years from now?
Wyoming, our weatherman cannot predict the weather two days from now, but our wonderful scientists say the science is settled when they have no clue.
“Today in Texas, it’s going to be hot. Tomorrow, it’s going to be real hot. Look for continued hot into next week, until it officially turns into summer where we’re in for a warm front which will stick around for the next several months. Portions of the state can expect to be very hot and dry, where closer to Houston you can expect unbelievably hot and soupy. December and January look to be pretty frigid, with a low of 93 and a better than average chance of hot.”
“There’s also a 50% chance of precipitation from now until Ragnarok”
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They are predicting that there is an 85% chance of El Nino will continue. Again taking wild guesses and assumptions and massaging them to 85% certainty, but leaving 15% chance it wont, so they will be right either way. I predict that 85% of their answers will be 85% wrong. And they don’t even know the questions.
Meteorologist, the only job you can be wrong the majority of the time and keep your job!
Baseball players who fail 70% of the time keep their jobs (.300 average)
I stand corrected! lol
Hahaha, yeah, I just couldn’t help myself :)
A pitcher who gives up 3-4 runs per game makes the All Star team.
Wild Pitches is the statistic you want to reference when talking about pitchers failing.
Pitchers fail for a variety of reasons and wild pitches are just one of the statistics. Pitchers who cannot locate their pitches in the right zone get hit hard or they walk a lot of batters. Sooner or later, they have to come in with a pitch and the hitters eyes get big and so long.
Okay — in that case, you want to use FIP and not ERA.
anyone have any idea when is the earliest a team can be mathematically eliminated from any hope of playoff contention? Right now, my Phillies are 20 games under .500. Cole Hamels strikes out 10 in a game and they still lose 1-0.
You know it’s bad when they start offering tickets on Groupon.
Gonna be a L-O-N-G season.
The Philly’s, with a 0% likelihood of making it into the playoffs and sitting 14.5 games behind a Wild Card spot, have a Wild Card Elimination Number of 87.
Thanks, Rosenblatt! When you put it like that, it makes them sound even worse. I guess we’ll always have ’08…
No problem Louie, and if it makes you feel any better about my reply, I’m a Red Sox fan and that team has stunk up the joint impressively the past few years.
Although the AL Least might be the weakest division, the BoSox have a WC elimination number of 91 games, are 8 games behind a Wild Card spot and have only a 12% chance of making the playoffs. Not really that much better than Philly.
One of the neatest inventions I have seen in baseball in recent years is the super imposed strike zone that ESPN is using on broadcast games. I watched some of the Reds-Cubs game last night and looking at behind the pitcher at the catcher is the strike zone. It was pretty easy to tell if it was a strike or not. The Umpires get it right most of the time although they have some trouble on corners and miss a pitch now and then.
I agree the strike-zone feature is wonderful and adds a lot of value to watching the game, but it’s not always right.
A 5’2″ batter has a smaller strike zone than a 6’4″ batter, but the K-Zone is always the same size.
It’s just important to know that a ball could be outside of the K-Zone and the umpire could correctly call the pitch a strike.
Great tool, really adds context, but is not 100% reliable.
“Tonight’s forecast: Dark. Continued mostly dark tonight turning to widely scattered light in the morning.”
I was a huge George Carlin fan. Loved the Hippy Dippy Weatherman.
Rosenblatt, home plate umpires have a pretty tough time calling balls and strikes with the variety of pitches thrown by major league pitchers and where the ball crosses the plate high or low or whether it is an inch off. To me, they struggle with the slider more than curves or fastballs. That good slider is a nasty pitch and often breaks late low and away. The question is whether it crossed in the strike zone or not.
“The question is whether it crossed in the strike zone or not.”
Yeah. I know. I get that.
That’s why I wrote that the K-zone is “not always right. A 5’2″ batter has a smaller strike zone than a 6’4″ batter, but the K-Zone is always the same size. It’s just important to know that a ball could be outside of the K-Zone and the umpire could correctly call the pitch a strike.”