These long-term forecasts will not be of much value, even to emergency managers as tornado forecasting is not even good enough an hour or two in advance to make decisions on risk mitigation. This is pie-in-the-sky application of forecasting technology that does not have a place in reality, at least not now and likely not for another decade or so.
The weather conditions favourable for tornado formation have been well known for several decades and with newer sensors, we have been able smaller details that help discern what will and what won’t cause a tornado. Still computing power and the ability to measure even more parameters is holding back forecast accuracy and precision. The public does not accept 10 out of 15 as being a good indicator of a hazard and neither should the insurance industry.
Predict tornadoes weeks in advance…..yeah, ok, they can’t accurately predict rain 48hrs in advance. The more serious implication would be for property renewals. On the east coast, we have a problem with tropical storms that are ‘in the box’. How will that work for insurance companies, the reinsurers and their investors when they buy into this concept ??
If you see the tornado in the station before it already happens that is CRAZY! I thought that you could only predict it when it is a day away from its due date. My question is how do you actually predict it. How is it predicted and how do you predict tornadoes and another thing before and how do you know. But how do you know how they are predicted because some news channels they are wrong and they do not tell the right infromation. some forecasts are not true so how do you know-how.I need to have one of the meteorologists to contact me when they can or you guys. Jax and Sierra.sorry if I spelled your name wrong.
These long-term forecasts will not be of much value, even to emergency managers as tornado forecasting is not even good enough an hour or two in advance to make decisions on risk mitigation. This is pie-in-the-sky application of forecasting technology that does not have a place in reality, at least not now and likely not for another decade or so.
The weather conditions favourable for tornado formation have been well known for several decades and with newer sensors, we have been able smaller details that help discern what will and what won’t cause a tornado. Still computing power and the ability to measure even more parameters is holding back forecast accuracy and precision. The public does not accept 10 out of 15 as being a good indicator of a hazard and neither should the insurance industry.
Predict tornadoes weeks in advance…..yeah, ok, they can’t accurately predict rain 48hrs in advance. The more serious implication would be for property renewals. On the east coast, we have a problem with tropical storms that are ‘in the box’. How will that work for insurance companies, the reinsurers and their investors when they buy into this concept ??
If you see the tornado in the station before it already happens that is CRAZY! I thought that you could only predict it when it is a day away from its due date. My question is how do you actually predict it. How is it predicted and how do you predict tornadoes and another thing before and how do you know. But how do you know how they are predicted because some news channels they are wrong and they do not tell the right infromation. some forecasts are not true so how do you know-how.I need to have one of the meteorologists to contact me when they can or you guys. Jax and Sierra.sorry if I spelled your name wrong.