Doubt it. This assumes: (1) higher transmissible variants do not become the dominant strain and (2) most people want to take the vaccine.
(1) already appears to be happening in some states and (2) is already a significant barrier but was given a throwaway line near the end of the article like it’s not super important: “He said moving forward the key will be to ensure enough of the population is willing to be vaccinated.”
(1) Even if higher transmissible variants become the dominant strain in the whole world, this doesn’t affect vaccination because all of the vaccines in circulation prevent both strains of COVID-19 enough to be effective. (https://www.dhs.wisconsin.gov/covid-19/vaccine-safety.htm)
(2) Studies have shown that vaccine availability is a greater factor in distribution than hesitancy. Even disregarding this, only about a third of Americans are unlikely or hesitant to receive the vaccine. Since Oliver Wyman’s bar for herd immunity is at 71%, the 67% of Americans who aren’t at all hesitant to get the vaccine will make enough progress to enter the beginning stages of herd immunity. This level of immunity also discounts Americans who may change their minds about being hesitant to get the vaccine. Uncertain Americans may also have a change of heart, considering the broad majority of all people in the world support rapid vaccination. (https://www.ucdavis.edu/news/third-americans-say-they-are-unlikely-or-hesitant-get-covid-19-vaccine)
Doubt it. This assumes: (1) higher transmissible variants do not become the dominant strain and (2) most people want to take the vaccine.
(1) already appears to be happening in some states and (2) is already a significant barrier but was given a throwaway line near the end of the article like it’s not super important: “He said moving forward the key will be to ensure enough of the population is willing to be vaccinated.”
(1) Even if higher transmissible variants become the dominant strain in the whole world, this doesn’t affect vaccination because all of the vaccines in circulation prevent both strains of COVID-19 enough to be effective. (https://www.dhs.wisconsin.gov/covid-19/vaccine-safety.htm)
(2) Studies have shown that vaccine availability is a greater factor in distribution than hesitancy. Even disregarding this, only about a third of Americans are unlikely or hesitant to receive the vaccine. Since Oliver Wyman’s bar for herd immunity is at 71%, the 67% of Americans who aren’t at all hesitant to get the vaccine will make enough progress to enter the beginning stages of herd immunity. This level of immunity also discounts Americans who may change their minds about being hesitant to get the vaccine. Uncertain Americans may also have a change of heart, considering the broad majority of all people in the world support rapid vaccination. (https://www.ucdavis.edu/news/third-americans-say-they-are-unlikely-or-hesitant-get-covid-19-vaccine)