El Niño’s Odds of Being Worst Ever Edge Lower, US Climate Prediction Center Says

The odds are slipping that the “super” El Niño reshaping global weather patterns will be a record breaker, according to a new outlook from the leading US forecaster.

The chances that the El Niño spawned by unusually warm seas in the tropical Pacific Ocean will be stronger than the 1982-1983 season have dropped to roughly 60% from a previous forecast of 83%, the US Climate Prediction Center said Thursday.

The early ’80s event was the most severe in records dating back to 1950, based on a rolling, three-month average of ocean-temperature readings. No matter where the current pattern ultimately ranks, it remains a dire portent of potentially disastrous weather anomalies that would threaten life and property on multiple continents.

Weather models now indicate that the ocean may begin to cool rapidly as wind patterns shift in early 2027. El Niño is expected to fade heading into the Northern Hemisphere summer, with odds of a La Niña outbreak rising to more than 30% during the June-to-August time frame.

A fast transition from El Niño to La Niña can create significant risks, including an enhanced fire threat in Southern California. Plants and grasses that flourished around Los Angeles during the wet El Niño winter of 2023-2024 helped fuel devastating fires in 2025 amid a hot, dry La Niña event.

The current El Niño has contributed to an explosion of powerful Pacific typhoons and hurricanes. High winds, damaging waves and surging tides have wreaked havoc on ports and coastal communities from Japan and Taiwan to San Francisco and Long Beach, California.

Farmers in Southeast Asia, India and parts of Africa, meanwhile, are contending with unusually poor rains that threaten to dent yields. Disruptive fires in Indonesia that have blanketed the surrounding region in haze are finally easing as wet weather returns.

Photo: Waves crash into a seawall near Belmont Shore Beach in Long Beach, California on Oct. 22.