The Texas grid operator warned power demand may quadruple from recent record levels by 2032 to feed booming data-center expansion and population growth, an increase that would require the equivalent of almost 300 new nuclear reactors.
The Electric Reliability Council of Texas said peak demand may reach 367,790 megawatts in six years, a vast increase from the all-time peak of 85,508 megawatts reached in August 2023. Data centers will account for more than 60% of the projected increase, according to an Ercot presentation released Wednesday.
While Texas is facing “exceptional growth” across sectors, Ercot Chief Executive Officer Pablo Vegas said “we believe this forecast to be higher than expected future growth.”
Ercot’s latest forecast demonstrates how grid operators, utilities and regulators are struggling to figure out how to cope with a rush of data-center proposals. Some observers expressed skepticism about the Ercot forecast.
“That is not the actual forecast because it can’t actually happen,” said Travis Kavulla, head of policy at household battery start-up Base Power. “There needs to be a market-based approach to ration scarce access to the grid, which is not yet being proposed.”
It’s a “fool’s errand” to have regional grids and utilities forecast what data centers will actually show up because only the developers of those facilities really know what they are willing to invest, Kavulla said. “None of that is a good approach.”
Photo: An AEP power station in Corpus Christi, Texas during a heat wave in Corpus Christi, Texas, US, on Thursday, July 20, 2023. Heat advisories and excessive heat warnings stretch from California’s Central Valley to Miami.
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