Exceptionally warm waters and a developing El Niño will increase the risk of direct hurricane impacts in Hawaii, Southern California and parts of Mexico this year, according to an AccuWeather analysis out on Wednesday.
The forecast shows the Eastern and Central Pacific basins are expected to produce above the historical average number of named storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes in 2026.
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The 2026 Eastern Pacific hurricane season forecast calls for 17 to 22 named storms, nine to 13 hurricanes, four to eight major hurricanes and six to nine direct impacts to Mexico/Central America.
The Central Pacific hurricane season forecast calls for four to seven named storms, two to four hurricanes, one to three major hurricanes and one to two direct impacts to Hawaii.
Hawaii faces an above-average risk of tropical impacts this year, including damaging winds, flooding rain and storm surge.
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AccuWeather forecasters say a developing El Niño plays a role in this year’s storm outlook, because an El Niño typically leads to a more active Eastern Pacific season by reducing disruptive wind shear. Additionally, very warm ocean water can support more tropical development and increase the risk of rapid intensification.
The increasing likelihood a super El Niño later in the season could help fuel tropical development in late October and November, according to AccuWeather.
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