EQECAT, AIR Estimate Japan Typhoon Losses – Less than $1 Billion

September 10, 2007

Catastrophe modeling firms EQECAT and AIR Worldwide have indicated that losses from Typhoon Fitow, which came ashore on Friday, Sept. 7 in Japan’s Shizuoka prefecture, would not exceed $1 billion

The storm, rated category one with winds of 88 mph, was relatively low intensity, but it brought heavy rains, which caused local flooding. EQECAT said that according to its ” Industry Exposure Database for Japan,” initial estimates put losses at around ¥50 billion (approximately US $500 million). They could be higher, but a” credible range for insured losses” would probably not exceed ¥100 billion (approximately US $1 billion).

AIR indicated that the storm had “canceled morning train services in and out of the capital, grounded more than 200 flights, and left 80,000 people without power as it tracked just west of the Tokyo metropolitan region.” Insured losses, however, “will not exceed $1 billion.”

EQECAT noted that its “insured loss corresponds to ‘economic’ damage estimates approximately double the insured loss estimates (e.g., an expectation that economic damages will not exceed ¥200 billion [$2 billion]). The bulk of the losses are expected to be to householder insurance.”

Dr. Peter Sousounis, senior research scientist at AIR Worldwide indicated that the storm weakened progressively as it moved north-northeast. He added: “Very early reports from Japan’s Fire and Disaster Management Agency indicate that more than 300 homes were flooded and more than 100 homes damaged by wind. It is still in the early aftermath of this event, however, and these numbers will undoubtedly rise. AIR expects damage to non-structural elements and roofing materials, though Japan’s heavy tile roofs are likely to have fared well.”

Source: EQECAT, Air Worldwide –

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