Swiss Re Study Examines U.S. European Economic Scenarios

May 3, 2001

A study just released by Swiss Re Economic Research & Consulting finds that the U.S. economy is more vulnerable in the short-term to recessionary pressures, but that in the long-term European economies are more likely to be affected by “sluggish growth than is America’s.”

33 economists from leading financial institutions participated in the survey. There general consensus was, “that there is a 28% probability that real US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth this year will be less than 1% — far higher than the 8% probability they assigned to Europe. Over a ten-year horizon, this picture is reversed. The probability of a decade of sluggish real growth (less than 1.5% per year) is 16% for Europe and 7% for the US.”

In addition to assessing growth prospects the study also examined inflationary pressures, stock market activity and their affects on economic growth.

A copy of the full report lay be obtained by contacting Laura Frick in Swiss Re’s New York Office via e-mail at:; by telephone at: 212 317 51 35, or fax at: 212 317 54 55.

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