AIR Releases New Earthquake, Typhoon Models for Japan, Australia

February 5, 2002

Boston-based Applied Insurance Research, Inc. (AIR), a leading catastrophe modeling firm, has released the 2002 versions of its earthquake and typhoon models for the Asia-Pacific region, in time for the April 1st renewals of reinsurance coverage for Japanese insurance companies.

“The models are implemented in AIR’s CATMAPĀ®/2 and CATRADERĀ® software systems. A highlight of the release is the updated Japan earthquake model, which features the capability to estimate losses from earthquake- induced fires,” said the announcement.

AIR explained that its damage estimation module uses “a separate dynamic simulation to calculate the rate of fire ignitions as a function of earthquake intensity and construction type, the spread of the fire as affected by wind conditions and building density, and the capacity of available firefighting resources to respond to and suppress fires.” Patricia Donahue, Sr. VP of AIR Software Services stated that, “The release of the Japan fire-following model will allow our clients to estimate Earthquake Fire Expense Insurance (EFEI) losses in time for their renewals.”

AIR also released an updated Australia typhoon model featuring “an enhanced methodology for estimating changes in primary model parameters, such as central pressure, forward speed, and radius of maximum winds, along fully probabilistic, curving and recurving storm tracks.”

“In addition to a significant upgrade of the model’s hazard component, new damage functions have been developed for a wider variety of construction types and occupancy classes,” stated Dr. Jayanta Guin, VP of AIR Research and Modeling.

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