NHC Sees 60% Chance Caribbean System Could become Tropical Cyclone

June 25, 2010

The National Hurricane Center in Miami continues to track a low pressure system, which developed earlier this week [See IJ web site – https://www.insurancejournal.com/news/international/2010/06/14/110696.htm ]. The NHC’s latest bulletin places the system as “centered about 150 miles east-northeast of Cabo Gracias a Dios on the Honduras-Nicaragua border.”

The bulletin said the system “has changed little in organization during the past several hours. However, upper-level winds are gradually becoming more conducive for development as the low drifts slowly northwestward.” It could become a tropical depression “before it reaches the Yucatan peninsula in a couple of days”.

The NHC also said there’s a “high chance – 60 percent -.of this system becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.”

At this stage it isn’t possible to predict a future storm track, or even if the system will in fact develop into a tropical cyclone. It could dissipate over the Yucatan Peninsula, or, and this is what causes the most concern, it could head for the Gulf of Mexico, where even a relatively mild storm would cause problems for the workers trying to contain the oil spill.

Source: National Hurricane Center

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