Risk Management Solutions reports that as of October 5, 2010, there are “exactly eight weeks left until the end of the official hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to November 30. To date, 14 named storms have developed, seven of which have become hurricanes, with five reaching major hurricane status (category 3 and above).”
Neena Saith, senior catastrophe response manager at RMS, pointed out that “based on the historical record since 1950, we typically expect one to two named storms to form in October, one of which would reach hurricane status.
“The last time an October hurricane made landfall in the U.S. was in 2005, when Hurricane Wilma, a category 5 storm, made landfall over Florida causing an excessive amount of damage and ranking among the five costliest hurricanes ever recorded in the Atlantic.”
The current season has been a busy one. RMS noted that “since 1950, only two seasons (1995 and 2005) have had more named storms by this point (over 14 named storms by 5 Oct). These seasons went on to have 19 named storms (11 hurricanes and 5 major hurricanes) and 27 (15 hurricanes, 7 major) respectively.”
An update from Colorado State University, released at the end of September suggested that the first week of October would “be characterized by above-average amounts of activity in the Atlantic,” said RMS. So far there is one tropical depression over the northeastern Caribbean, which “has potential to become a named storm in the next 24 hours – Tropical Storm Otto (the 15th named storm of 2010 hurricane season).”
Even if storms like Wilma have formed in October, Ms. Saith explained that “the likelihood of storm formation in the eastern tropical Atlantic near the Cape Verde Islands drops considerably in October, with the focus tending to shift westward towards the Caribbean.” This is apparent from analysis of where October storms have typically formed from 1851 to 2009.
Source: Risk Management Solutions
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