AIR Analyzes Typhoon Nesat’s Impact on Philippines

September 28, 2011

According to catastrophe modeling firm AIR Worldwide, “Typhoon Nesat (known locally as ‘Pedring’) made landfall in the eastern Isabela and Aurora provinces on the Pacific coast of the Philippines at 18:21 GMT Monday, September 26 with maximum sustained winds of 120 mph (195 kilometers per hour), making it a category 2 typhoon.

“Nesat came ashore exactly two years after Typhoon Ketsana, the most devastating typhoon for the Philippines in the 2009 Pacific typhoon season.”

The storm caused heavy flooding and at least 7 reported deaths according to news reports.

AIR’s analysis notes that commercial properties in the Philippines are “are generally constructed of reinforced concrete and are expected to sustain some wind-borne debris damage to glazing and outer cladding at these wind speeds.

“Light metal commercial structures and signage will likely sustain moderate to significant damage. Although residential properties in the coastal regions of central Luzon are commonly constructed of masonry or reinforced concrete, poor construction practices and low-quality materials may lead to more significant damage, including the loss of roofs. However, a high proportion of residential losses are not expected to be insured.”

AIR indicated that “given Nesat’s wind speeds in the metro Manila area of the Philippines and generally low take-up rates in the areas most heavily affected by the storm, AIR does not expected significant insured losses from Nesat in the Philippines.”

Dr. Peter Sousounis, principal scientist at AIR Worldwide, noted: “Typhoon Nesat is one of the strongest to hit the Philippines this year. Fortunately, however, the storm steered clear of metro Manila, where the highest concentration of insured properties is located. While damage is anticipated to some residential properties, a high proportion of residential losses are not expected to be insured. Overall the penetration of insurance in the Philippines is estimated at 15 percent across all lines of business.”

He also stated that “Nesat has become better organized again after reemerging into the South China Sea and beginning to recover from its interaction with land. The storm is expected to continue moving towards the west and west northwest as it tracks along the southern periphery of the subtropical ridge. It is forecast to re-intensify as it moves across the South China Sea with favorable atmospheric and oceanic conditions anticipated for the next several days.”

AIR said it expects Nesat “to make a second landfall across northern Hainan, China or northern Vietnam on September 29 or September 30 as a category 1-2 typhoon.

Source: AIR Worldwide

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