Tropical Storm Sandy on Track to Become Hurricane

October 23, 2012

Late Monday, Sandy became the eighteenth named storm of the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season.

According to the National Hurricane Center, Sandy is expected to strengthen during the next 24 hours and become a hurricane on Wednesday– before reaching Jamaica.

The official NHC forecast has tropical storm Sandy tracking to the north to north-northeast through to Friday. On this forecast track the center of Sandy will track over Jamaica late Wednesday, over eastern Cuba on Thursday, and over the eastern Bahamas on Thursday into Friday.

The storm is currently stationary over the warm waters of the southwestern Caribbean.

According to catastrophe modeling form Risk Management Solutions (RMS), the majority of models are calling for Sandy to strengthen to a hurricane. However uncertainty in the intensity forecast is reflected in the spread of the model intensity guidance from moderate tropical storm to a strong Category 1 hurricane.

RMS said that interaction with land masses as the system tracks over Jamaica and eastern Cuba and the movement of the system into an environment of increasing vertical wind shear are expected to weaken Sandy.

Sandy is forecast to be a tropical storm for the remainder of its track through the Caribbean. It is forecast to bring heavy rain to the central Caribbean, total rain accumulations of 5 to 10 inches, while there is the potential for the storm to bring isolated maximum accumulations of 16 inches that could produce life threatening flash floods and mudslides.

Source: RMS

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