National promises to curb greenhouse gas emissions will help avert the worst levels of global warming by 2100, but more action is needed to keep temperature rises within the 2 degrees Celsius [3.6°F] limit set by governments, a study showed on Monday.
Promises by governments this year to restrain emissions beyond 2020 would limit warming to a rise of 3.5 degrees Celsius (6.3 Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial times, it said. That is less than the 4.5 C (8.1F) rise expected if they continued on a current track without curbs.
But the projected rise in average temperatures will still exceed the 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 Fahrenheit) set by almost 200 governments as a ceiling to avert the worst of droughts, floods, heat waves and rising sea levels.
The analysis by experts was produced by Climate Interactive, a not-for-profit group in Washington, and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology’s Sloan School of Management.
Major emitters including Brazil, Indonesia and South Africa have issued plans for reducing emissions beyond 2020 in recent days. Other major emitters led by China, the United States and the European Union issued similar plans earlier this year.
The national promises are due to be the building blocks of an agreement due in Paris in December to limit climate change.
“We’ve made progress, and our analysis shows that with further action following the Paris negotiations we can keep warming below 2°C,” said Andrew Jones of Climate Interactive.
“The current barriers are political and social and, we believe, can be overcome,” he added in a statement.
(Reporting by Arpan Varghese in Bengaluru, and Alister Doyle in Oslo; Editing by Catherine Evans)
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