Aon plc, the London-based professional services firm, has launched an updated Thailand flood catastrophe model to improve understanding of this peril and help insurers build resilience for businesses and communities.
Following the flood of 2011 that caused more than US$15 billion of insured losses, Thailand’s risk continues to rise with the rapid growth of people and property exposed to frequent floods, said Aon.
Building upon the insights from the first flood model for Thailand launched in June 2012, the updated tool from Aon’s catastrophe model development team, Impact Forecasting, leverages scientific advances in hydrological, hydraulic and statistical modeling.
In light of the government’s significant flood protection and mitigation measures since 2011, it was also imperative to invest in a new model to capture the most up-to-date flood defense information for the most accurate flood loss evaluation.
The model will support insurers that currently underwrite in Thailand – plus those looking to grow into this space – with insights to drive their reinsurance purchase and manage their portfolio while using the data to underwrite effectively and monitor peak accumulations.
The model includes:
- A multi-source database of industrial estates – heavily impacted during the 2011 floods which led to global supply chain disruptions – to allow more accurate modelling of these risks
- High resolution elevation data: 10m for greater Bangkok area and 30m for rest of Thailand
- Data from over 200 gauging stations covering all aspects of local hydrological regimes including flood seasonality
- Over 700 improved vulnerability classes with many additional modifiers for construction types, number of stories, presence of basements etc
- Multi-sourced latest information about flood protection measures to more accurately capture the flood risk
“This is an exciting time for the Thai re/insurance market to play a critical role in supporting our ever-evolving economy,” commented Panchit Ekaraphanich, head of Treaty in Thailand for Aon’s Reinsurance Solutions business.
“Following the 2011 floods, the industrial sector is bouncing back but with a higher awareness of the potential risks,” Ekaraphanich added. “The market needed a way to more accurately assess and mitigate these risks so the launch of the updated flood model from Impact Forecasting is vital to give insurers the confidence to underwrite and in turn support businesses and communities in the region.”
Himavant Mulugu, flood model developer at Aon’s Impact Forecasting team, said: “Our goal has been to produce one of the most detailed and advanced models in south-east Asia that shows how data and analytics can have an impact in the market by opening up new products and possibilities. A notable feature of the model is two scenarios of the 2011 floods: the situation as was in 2011 and the situation today, taking into account new flood defenses, to enable more detailed insights and enhanced planning for insurers.”
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