RMS Estimates Insured Losses from Typhoon Jebi Could Reach $5.5 Billion

September 14, 2018

The insured loss for Japan from Typhoon Jebi, which made landfall in Japan on Sept. 4, will be between USD$3 billion and $5.5billion (¥340 to ¥620billion), according to the global risk modeling firm RMS.

Approximately 80 percent of the loss comes from the Kansai region, where Jebi made a second landfall west of Kobe, impacting the Kyoto-Osaka-Kobe conurbation.

Within the Kansai region, the loss is driven predominantly from Osaka Prefecture. The estimate also accounts for the wind footprint affecting large parts of Japan; including in northern Honshu and in Hokkaido where, when tracking offshore, the typhoon impacted these areas while undergoing extratropical transitioning.

In addition to using its model and database for analysis, risk modelers from the RMS office in Tokyo enhanced these industry loss estimates by engaging in remote and in-person reconnaissance.

The RMS estimate includes typhoon coastal flooding – observed in Kansai International Airport, in the ports of Kobe and Osaka, and in localized areas of reclaimed land/barrier islands in Osaka Bay. Typhoon driven inland flooding is deemed to be negligible from this event.

Marine cargo losses are included in the estimate, from the Kobe and Osaka ports – primarily from typhoon driven coastal flooding.

The estimate excludes losses from damage to infrastructure and port facilities. Marine hull is not included, neither are claims adjustment expenses, nor some aspects of business interruption including contingent business interruption, RMS said.

Earlier this week, another catastrophe risk modeling firm, AIR Worldwide, estimated that industry insured losses from Typhoo Jebi will be between $2.3 billion (JPY 257 billion) and $4.5 billion (JPY 502 billion).

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