The likelihood of a La Niña weather event in coming months has decreased, Australia’s weather bureau said on Tuesday, adding that if the phenomenon did appear, it would be weak and short-lived.
The development of La Niña and its opposite, El Niño, are of huge importance to global agriculture, with La Niña typically increasing rainfall in eastern Australia, Southeast Asia and India and reducing rainfall in the Americas.
“The chance of a La Niña event developing in the coming months has decreased,” the Australian Bureau of Meteorology said in a two-weekly update.
The bureau said its in-house climate model suggests La Niña will not develop and four of the six other climate models it surveys now agree.
La Niña and El Niño are caused by the cooling and warming of sea surface temperatures off western South America.
“If a La Niña were to develop, it is forecast to be relatively weak (in terms of the strength of the sea surface temperature anomaly) and short-lived, with all models forecasting neutral values in February,” the bureau said.
Other meteorologists have also become less confident that a La Niña will appear.
A U.S. government forecaster said last week there was a 60% chance of a La Niña emerging by the end of November that would persist through January-March 2025. A month earlier, it said there was a 71% chance of a La Niña forming.
(Reporting by Peter Hobson; Editing by Lincoln Feast.)
Topics Australia
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