Hurricane Melissa Explodes in Strength, Poses Peril for Jamaica

Hurricane Melissa strengthened further after pausing for most of Sunday south of Jamaica, with forecasters fearing the historic storm will lead to a humanitarian and economic disaster across the region.

Melissa’s top winds reached 150 miles (240 kilometers) per hour, rising from 145 mph. That makes it a Category 4 as it meandered across the Caribbean 130 miles south-southwest of Kingston, Jamaica, the US National Hurricane Center said in an advisory issued at 2 a.m. New York time.

The storm is forecast to keep intensifying until its winds reach 160 mph by late Monday, making it a chart-topping Category 5 major hurricane on the five-step, Saffir-Simpson scale. Melissa has intensified from 70 mph on Saturday.

“Seek shelter now,” Robbie Berg, a warning coordination meteorologist at the US center, wrote in a forecast earlier. On Jamaica, damaging winds and heavy rain “will cause catastrophic and life-threatening flash flooding and numerous landslides before the strongest winds arrive Monday night and Tuesday morning.”

Melissa has disrupted air travel, closing two international airports on Jamaica, and set government officials looking for ways to deal with the looming disaster.

More than 800 shelters have been opened across Jamaica. Heavy equipment is being readied to keep roads open as debris and landslides are all but certain as heavy rain and high winds sweep the Caribbean nation. Companies have evacuated workers and the US Navy pulled non-essential personnel out of its base on Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, where Melissa is forecast to go after devastating Jamaica. Flooding rains are forecast across Haiti and the Dominican Republic.

Losses on Jamaica may reach $14 billion, said Chuck Watson, a disaster modeler with Enki Research. The storm may cause an additional $5 billion in damages in Cuba, where it will make landfall later Tuesday. The losses may mount further, as Melissa is expected to rip through the southern Bahamas and possibly even approach Bermuda on Thursday.

Watson previously worked on an Organization of American States disaster mitigation project for the region and helped develop hurricane damage maps for Jamaica.

“Hurricane Melissa is just about the worst scenario you can imagine,” he said. He compared it to Hurricane Gilbert, which caused $7 billion in losses when it struck in 1988. “Melissa will probably cause twice that,” he said.

LNG terminal operator Excelerate Energy said in a statement the company had evacuated personnel and that all onshore operations had been secured ahead of the storm.

Prime Minister Andrew Holness also said the island had taken precautions to ensure telecommunications infrastructure can be brought back online quickly, with the goal of restoring 80% of service to most of the island within 72 hours of the storm.

Restoring the electric grid may take longer. Utility companies on the island warned that restoring power and other utilities after the storm would likely require rebuilding key infrastructure, not just restoring service.

“A Category 4 hurricane potentially going through the middle of our island could have unprecedented damage on our facilities,” Hugh Grant, CEO of Jamaica Public Service said on Sunday. “It is likely to be a rebuild and not just a restoration.”

Depending on the storm’s track, the country’s airports may also be damaged, slowing down recovery efforts if the world needs to lend Jamaica a helping hand in the aftermath, said Ryan Truchelut, owner of commercial-forecaster WeatherTiger. Furthering hampering efforts are issues raised by the US, UK and European Union scaling back on foreign aid.

Jamaican state oil company Petrojam has activated emergency systems in preparation for the storm, and said it had two weeks of refined fuel reserves, as well as 10 days worth of liquefied petroleum gas to supply the island after Melissa passes, according to Jamaican Energy Minister Daryl Vaz.

Facilities in Kingston and Montego Bay were stocked with jet fuel and aviation gasoline to ensure aircraft refueling, Vaz said.

Petrojam refineries closed on Saturday ahead of the storm, General Manager Telroy Morgan said.

“The refining operations were suspended on Saturday and the plant mothballed accordingly. Our loading racks both in Kingston and Montego Bay were opened until late Saturday night to fuel all our customers,” he said.

Petrojam sources crude mainly from Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador and Barbados. Production averages about 28,000 to 30,000 barrels per day, Morgan said.

Warmer Water

Melissa has drawn on an untapped reservoir of warm water across the Caribbean because while there have been 13 storms in the Atlantic so far this year, none have ventured into that part of the ocean, said Tyler Roys, a meteorologist with AccuWeather Inc.

The water’s heat, which is fuel for hurricanes, is running 3F to 5F (2C to 3C) above normal for this time of year and is approaching 90F (32C) in some places.

Jamaica, including its many waterfront resorts, is a popular tourist spot and a regular destination for cruises from the US and other countries.

Across the mountainous islands in the western Caribbean, as much as 30 inches (76 centimeters) of rain may fall, with isolated spots getting as much as 40 inches, according to the hurricane center.

Melissa will also push ocean water as much as 13 feet above ground level as it washes ashore. Almost half of all deaths in hurricanes typically come from drowning. While Melissa’s winds may drop slightly as it makes landfall, the difference between a Category 4 or 5 storm won’t matter much in terms of the extent of damage, the hurricane center said.

“If this forecast holds up, and it seems on track as of this morning, the impacts will be horrific,” Watson said.

Top photograph: Hurricane Melissa spins in the Caribbean on Oct. 26, 2025. Photo credit: NOAA