Reinsurance Rates Continued Softening During April Renewals, Despite Iran War

Reinsurance rates continued to soften during the April 1 renewals despite the unstable geopolitical landscape and uncertain economic outlook, according to major reinsurance brokers.

“The orderly completion of the renewal, with no structural disruption, disciplined capacity and cedent-friendly pricing outcomes, is testament to the underlying health of the market even in a period of heightened geopolitical uncertainty,” said Howden .

The main reasons for the ongoing competitive market conditions were lower natural catastrophe losses in 2025 and Q1 2026, robust reinsurer balance sheets, and abundant capacity, indicated brokers Aon, Gallagher Re, Guy Carpenter and Howden, in their separate renewal reports.

April 1 is the main renewal period for insurers in Japan, Korea and India, with some U.S. ceding companies also renewing.

“Risk-adjusted property-catastrophe rates-on-line returned to levels last seen in the early 2020s even as geopolitical turmoil in the Middle East drove acute stress across multiple specialty lines globally,” said Howden Re in a report on the April renewals titled “Howden Re: 1 April renewals reflect continued softening, insulated from Middle East volatility.”

“Insurers renewing at April 1 achieved significant savings in all regions, building on the competitive conditions seen at January 1,” said Aon in its April renewal report, titled “Reinsurance Market Dynamics Cycle Management Moves Center Stage, April 2026 Renewal.”

“Record levels of industry capital, aggressive competition from ILS markets and relatively benign catastrophe losses in Asia Pacific helped drive double-digit reductions and more flexible terms and conditions at April 1, the main renewal for insurers in Japan, Korea and India,” Aon continued.

Global demand for reinsurance increased by approximately 10% at the April renewal, “as buyers used favorable market conditions to secure more comprehensive protection, with some expected to return to the market post‑renewal to explore additional purchases,” Aon said.

“In certain Asia Pacific markets, rate reductions of up to 20% underscored the strength of buyer leverage supported by abundant capacity,” Aon said in a press release accompanying the report.

“The headline renewal outcomes were a continuation of January 1 themes, as cedents achieved material risk-adjusted rate reductions across property and specialty lines, while casualty pricing held broadly stable,” according to Gallagher Re’s First View report, titled “Rethinking the Art of the Possible, April 2026.”

Iran War

Several of the brokers reports confirmed that the Iran war did not affect outcomes during the April renewals, although loss potential could be high.

“The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, following coordinated U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian military targets in late February 2026 and Iran’s subsequent declaration of closure, did not directly affect the property-catastrophe renewal at April 1,” said Howden Re.

Treaty reinsurers moved swiftly to assess potential exposures to the Middle East conflict, Guy Carpenter in its report, titled “Reinsurance macro trends and market softening continues in Asia and India against backdrop of Middle East conflict.”

“Given the scale of the conflict, potential losses across political violence, marine, and aviation lines could be significant,” Carpenter added, noting, however, that no prejudice against reinsurance buyers was seen in comparison to the January renewals.

“The dislocation is currently mainly concentrated in the specialty market: in marine war risk, energy and political violence lines, with capacity repricing at several multiples of pre-conflict levels,” Howden said.

“The Middle East conflict has heightened global uncertainty, but the re/insurance sector has responded promptly, maintaining capacity despite rising premiums,” said Gallagher Re in an introduction to its report. “Supply chain disruptions and other economic concerns are still developing, which could lead to increased demand for tailored re/insurance solutions.”

Gallagher Re said it is still too early to determine the ultimate insured loss from the conflict, but “the market remains open and responsive to the needs of insureds.”

Insurers and reinsurers have been able to rapidly provide “solutions supporting global trade…,” Gallagher said. “[W]hile premium levels have increased to reflect a fundamentally altered risk environment, availability has not been a constraint.”

Drivers of Softening Market

Despite competitive pricing globally, market stability is being driven by strong reinsurer balance sheets and relatively low natural catastrophe losses over the past year in the Asia Pacific.

“Global reinsurer capital hit a new high of $785 billion at the end of 2025, a year-on-year increase of almost 10%, driven by strong retained earnings, investment gains and record third-party capital of $136 billion,” according to Aon.

“The 18% rise in third-party capital helped lower retrocession costs and has enabled many traditional reinsurers to expand sidecar and catastrophe bond programs,” Aon added.

Aon explained that most reinsurers have reported three consecutive years of strong underwriting results in 2025, continuing to reap the benefits of the market reset in 2023.

“Aon estimates that equity reported by global reinsurers rose to a new high of $649 billion at Dec. 31, 2025, an increase of $49 billion relative to the end of 2024, driven principally by strong retained earnings. The average return on equity across 29 insurers and reinsurers tracked by Aon was 17%, around double the average cost of equity.”

Discussing the lower insured losses of natural catastrophes, Aon noted that nat cat claims in Asia Pacific during 2025 were 54% below the 21st century averages. (Swiss Re estimated global insured losses in 2025 were US$107 billion – 24% lower than the US$141 billion recorded in 2024.)

Aon said that peak peril losses of $9 billion were unusually low in 2025, which it attributed to the absence of U.S. hurricane landfalls for the first time in a decade.

Further, the record secondary peril losses of $118 billion were largely retained by the primary market, Aon said, noting that, as a result, the average reinsurance sector combined ratio was 88.5% in 2025, down from 90.1% in 2024.

And 2026 is starting on a similar footing, with insured catastrophe losses for the first quarter of 2026 projected at around US$13 billion, more than 50% below the five-year inflation-adjusted average, according to Guy Carpenter. “Reinsurers’ share of global catastrophe losses continues to decline due to higher attachment points and fewer catastrophe events.”

April Renewal Territories

All of the major April renewal regions saw competitive pricing.

India’s renewals benefited from benign loss experience and strong local capacity, resulting in one of the most competitive renewal seasons in recent years, said Guy Carpenter, adding that loss-free excess-of-loss business saw price cuts exceeding 20%.

“Pricing remained competitive across liability and specialty lines, including cyber,” Carpenter added.

“In the India and Middle East markets, we are seeing a strong commitment from reinsurers to maintain coverage despite the complexities posed by ongoing conflicts,” commented Atish Suri, CEO India, Middle East & Africa, for Guy Carpenter, in the press release.

Japanese Market

Carpenter noted that Japan, which is the largest Asia Pacific territory renewing in April, saw pricing continuing to soften in casualty and specialty lines as capacity exceeded demand. “Double-digit price reductions were observed in property catastrophe and property per risk lines.

Asia Pacific Territories

Key APAC territories, such as Indonesia, Korea, the Philippines, and Singapore, experienced continued softening, with double-digit price reductions on loss-free catastrophe business, Guy Carpenter said.

“Terms and conditions remained largely stable, and renewals proceeded on time. Abundant capacity and new reinsurers seeking portfolio diversification led to increased quoting activity, demonstrating added value to cedents.”

US Market

“In the U.S., competition across traditional and insurance-linked securities markets responded to increased buyer demand and led to double-digit pricing reductions,” Aon said in its press release. “U.S. insurers also used favorable buyer conditions to transfer more risk to reinsurers through increased limits, frequency covers and proportional transactions.”

In its report, Aon said terms and conditions continued to improve in the U.S., following the hard market of 2023. “Retention levels were broadly flat, although there was growing interest from insurers in frequency products, including third and fourth event covers and buy-down retentions for multiple events.”

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