Oakland, Calif.-based catastrophe modeler EQECAT Inc. estimates that insured losses from Hurricane Ivan could range from about $6 billion to about $20 billion, “depending upon the exact landfall location, the track of the storm after landfall, and the intensity as it reaches the United States mainland.”
The estimates are based on Ivan coming ashore “somewhere between Tallahassee, Florida and Houma, Louisiana, which includes New Orleans, based upon updated information provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) about Hurricane Ivan.”
The hurricane is currently fluctuating between a category four and category five storm. “Interpretations of the latest NOAA weather forecasts show expected windspeed, at landfall along the U.S. Gulf Coast, to be greater than landfall intensity estimates reported on Monday,” EQECAT noted. Ivan has been particularly unpredictable, and as the bulletin points out, “hurricanes often make dramatic and unexpected changes in direction and intensity.”
EQECAT indicated: “If the storm makes landfall between Houma, Louisiana and Biloxi, Mississippi (includes New Orleans, Louisiana) the insured losses could exceed $20 billion. If it makes landfall between Biloxi, Mississippi and Pensacola, Florida (includes Mobile, Alabama) the insured losses could exceed $15 billion. A landfall between Pensacola and Fort Walton, Florida could incur insured losses exceeding $8 billion. Finally, a landfall between Fort Walton and Tallahassee could incur insured losses exceeding $4 billion.”
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